2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

link to site?

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_3mon_tcc.html

[ensonerd1233e343]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/figures/db_hist_3mon_tcc.html

thanks

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

@40/70 Benchmark 23-24 maxed at -30dm in N. Pacific off the coast of CA (WPO area doesn't count) and the bigger story was probably +45dm south of the Aleutian islands

See Larry's post

 

This will couple more than 2024 at the height of the cold phase.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This will couple more than 2024 at the height of the cold phase.

October 2024 PDO hit a 150-year low. Then in July 2025 it beat that, going lower. Now relative to ENSO it's probably just as impressive as Oct 2024 and July 2025. Don't think you can call a peak in the cold phase yet. 

[EasternLI]

55 minutes ago, ensonerd1233e343 said:

I dont think it really is and either way the odds of el nino not coupling to the n pac during northen winter are near zero so imo the point is moot 

Disagree that the odds are nearly zero. I do agree that the sheer magnitude of this el nino prevails. And I believe this autumn will do major work on that. However I also believe it is a true battle between the two. As the upper air pattern driving said PDO are fighting against it. PDO after all is a reflection of a predominant 500mb pattern. It takes effort to transform that as research shows. A major driver of this is known to be aleutian low variability. So it will be fascinating how that shakes out. The runaway strengthening on pause currently could be a little clue towards that. Or maybe not, but I would not be overly confident in either, and I am not. 

[jaxjagman]

21 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October 2024 PDO hit a 150-year low. Then in July 2025 it beat that, going lower. Now relative to ENSO it's probably just as impressive as Oct 2024 and July 2025. Don't think you can call a peak in the cold phase yet. 

I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this

[LakePaste25]

If this event doesn’t strongly couple then we need to start making PDO threads rather than ENSO threads. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, LakePaste25 said:

If this event doesn’t strongly couple then we need to start making PDO threads rather than ENSO threads. 

In some months the PDO correlates higher with US Temperature than ENSO. In a few months it actually scores higher than the PNA! 

[LakePaste25]

7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

In some months the PDO correlates higher with US Temperature than ENSO. In a few months it actually scores higher than the PNA! 

+PDO tends to be more indicative that the Pacific was in more of a nino state during the past 5-10 years and vice versa so that makes sense. Weak ENSO is going to have high variability. 

[EasternLI]

8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

I agree with you,it dont seem like when the monthly updates you should see much change with a typhoon going into East China the next couple days.Look at how warm those SST's are east Japan into the Pac.Its rare in a strong NINO to even witness this

Yeah. You would expect to see some recurving typhoons instead of that. Key part of the puzzle IMO. Which we are still waiting for... 

[Jebman]

I wonder how often the PDO state keeps ninos from affecting the N HEM 500 pressure surface? Or gets close?