2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino

[bluewave]

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

[mitchnick]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

That's a crazy list of analog years with no rhyme or reason if you just consider Enso.

[EasternLI]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated...

 

[mitchnick]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Does anyone have the latest forecast H85 zonal wind anomaly forecast for 5N to 5S? None of the ones that I usually access are updated...

This link has it from the Cfs2 around 2/3's down the page.

https://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/ensocurr.html

There's also a link above the 850 forecast for additional info:

https://ncics.org/portfolio/monitor/mjo/

[EasternLI]

Gefs just finished updating for 6z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, EasternLI said:

 

Thank you!

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

Your research on these patterns is a life-saver in terms of time trying to do these blogs with 4 little kids. haha.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.

[michsnowfreak]

25 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

That early part of September 1997 must have been record cold in the Northeast US. All I remember is that early September 2015 and early September 2023 were really hot.

Sept 1997 looks cooler than avg but nothing crazy. 

[GaWx]

 During the last 90 days, 86 of them were in MJO phases 6, 7, 8, or 1! The other 4 were only barely into phase 5 (inside circle) and since records started in 1974 there’s no instance of a 90 day period with >95% of the days in either the WPAC or the W Hem/Africa:

 

 The closest is 7/25/15-10/22/15, which had 81 of the 90 days (90%) in 6-7-8-1:

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Finally starting to see elements of the 2023, 2015, and 1997 late August into September patterns show up in the analog composite. 
 

 

I don't think -PNA is an El Nino pattern. You are getting randomness because September is the weakest month of the year for ENSO correlation across the Pacific-North America region

[Stormchaserchuck1]

3rd straight day of <-30 SOI

22 Aug 2026	1013.39	1016.75	-30.23	-19.36	-22.39
21 Aug 2026	1013.48	1017.25	-32.71	-18.78	-22.41
20 Aug 2026	1013.20	1017.40	-35.32	-17.97	-22.25