roardog Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 13 minutes ago, cmillzz said: Don’t really see anything to stop the ridge from expanding eastward once we get after the equinox (and it’s already been a very warm start to March), but we’ll see. Cold shot looks short-lived and unremarkable too, especially in comparison to the unprecedented heat encompassing the desert southwest. I’m talking mainly for the Midwest though, maybe New England holds on to the cold for longer. Canada looks to stay very cold so the northern part of the country could definitely see some brief extremes both ways but probably no warmth or cold for an extended period of time unless blocking develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 West stays warm while the east gets cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, roardog said: Canada looks to stay very cold so the northern part of the country could definitely see some brief extremes both ways but probably no warmth or cold for an extended period of time unless blocking develops. Hence why I say eastward, though I do expect some northward expansion of the ridge too. A lot of it will depend on how much existing snow cover there ends up being in the northern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Just to give an example of the Euro's glaringly obvious cold bias/mishandling of long range patterns, here's what it was showing for 18z Thursday back on the first of the month. Newer run on the bottom, as which you can see it corrected warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 42 minutes ago, cmillzz said: Just to give an example of the Euro's glaringly obvious cold bias/mishandling of long range patterns, here's what it was showing for 18z Thursday back on the first of the month. Newer run on the bottom, as which you can see it corrected warmer. You obviously can’t expect details on a 270 hour model op run to be exactly correct. I mean you would flip out if someone posted a 270 hour op run showing a snowstorm hitting Milwaukee expecting it to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 Wow that Southwest, US heat ridge is strong on the 12z EPS. Phoenix beating their old DJF Temp record by +1.8F is phenomenal (#1 to #2 is the same as #2 to #20 - donsutherland stats). There might be a significant record set there in March, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 31 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Wow that Southwest, US heat ridge is strong on the 12z EPS. Phoenix beating their old DJF Temp record by +1.8F is phenomenal (#1 to #2 is the same as #2 to #20 - donsutherland stats). There might be a significant record set there in March, as well. Multiple 100+ readings in Phoenix likely this March...that's nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 I noticed this pattern last Winter, which we had never really seen before. Then of course the extreme's that followed this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 8 hours ago, cmillzz said: The only cold period is the 3/16-3/19 period, then warms up significantly afterwards. Would expect warmer trends in the coming days as the models have a tendency to erroneously hold on to the cold for longer than it should when there’s such a vast lack of high-latitude blocking. As I said before and will say again, meteorology > modelology. Funny thing is it’s already been a blowtorch for virtually the entire CONUS Not sure. It does seem like the wishcasting warmth for the east this winter has been no different than previous years when some wish casted cold. Its usually short-lived or fails. Obviously theres a warmer signal after the cold (which does not seem confined to just Mar 16-19) but ill remain very skeptical of a torch here until it is imminent. Haven't finished above avg at Detroit since Oct. Nov: -0.4° Dec: -3.6° Jan: -5.2° Feb: -0.2° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Not sure. It does seem like the wishcasting warmth for the east this winter has been no different than previous years when some wish casted cold. Its usually short-lived or fails. Obviously theres a warmer signal after the cold (which does not seem confined to just Mar 16-19) but ill remain very skeptical of a torch here until it is imminent. Haven't finished above avg at Detroit since Oct. Nov: -0.4° Dec: -3.6° Jan: -5.2° Feb: -0.2° The cold has won the battles and will continue from the Midwest to northeast after this mild spell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The cold has won the battles and will continue from the Midwest to northeast after this mild spell. brrr 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Not sure. It does seem like the wishcasting warmth for the east this winter has been no different than previous years when some wish casted cold. Its usually short-lived or fails. Obviously theres a warmer signal after the cold (which does not seem confined to just Mar 16-19) but ill remain very skeptical of a torch here until it is imminent. Haven't finished above avg at Detroit since Oct. Nov: -0.4° Dec: -3.6° Jan: -5.2° Feb: -0.2° Idk about the east, but Chicago having its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record is hardly "wishcasting". Don't really care about the weather anywhere else tbh, it's been very mild (and dry, up until this past week) here since mid Feb. Besides, you'll be torching for a few days this upcoming week too, so idk why you'd be skeptical of another torch brewing later on in an even more favorable pattern for sustained warmth + later in the year with a rising sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmillzz Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Not sure. It does seem like the wishcasting warmth for the east this winter has been no different than previous years when some wish casted cold. Its usually short-lived or fails. Obviously theres a warmer signal after the cold (which does not seem confined to just Mar 16-19) but ill remain very skeptical of a torch here until it is imminent. Haven't finished above avg at Detroit since Oct. Nov: -0.4° Dec: -3.6° Jan: -5.2° Feb: -0.2° Oh, yeah, may just be confined to the 18th LOL. All snow threats confined to your north as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 12 hours ago, cmillzz said: brrr If this is cold "winning" the battle, I'd hate to see the alternative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 A good number of the last posts here would imho better belong in the 25-26 thread instead of 26-27. Isn’t March of ‘26 part of 25-26? And then the last post was about DJF 25-6. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 17 hours ago, cmillzz said: Idk about the east, but Chicago having its earliest 7 day streak of 50°+ on record is hardly "wishcasting". Don't really care about the weather anywhere else tbh, it's been very mild (and dry, up until this past week) here since mid Feb. Besides, you'll be torching for a few days this upcoming week too, so idk why you'd be skeptical of another torch brewing later on in an even more favorable pattern for sustained warmth + later in the year with a rising sun angle. Yes its torching today. I wasnt referring to you, I was referencing the fact that as soon as winter got off to a cold start, some were "projecting" a warm jan, then a warm feb. Like you, I primarily care about the weather where I live (SE MI) so the frequent posts about record warmth in the West were an afterthought in our cold, white winter. This winter was unusually in that Detroit averaged quite a bit colder than Chicago, but it made sense in this pattern as Chicago was further west. It was still a colder than avg winter at ORD, but very front loaded. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 17 hours ago, cmillzz said: brrr His point about cold winning out from the western warmth the further east you went is very apparent from the winter temp departure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 4 hours ago, GaWx said: A good number of the last posts here would imho better belong in the 25-26 thread instead of 26-27. Isn’t March of ‘26 part of 25-26? And then the last post was about DJF 25-6. Sorry. Back to '26-27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: If this is cold "winning" the battle, I'd hate to see the alternative. Insane heat likely in the SW. I'm seeing Phoenix at 105 and Vegas at 100F. All time records 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Insane heat likely in the SW. I'm seeing Phoenix at 105 and Vegas at 100F. All time records The west might be in trouble this summer if we see persistent ridging out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 We won't know the reality for months, but i would be SHOCKED if the 2026-27 el nino is strong. You just dont get strong events like that 3 years apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 10 Author Share Posted March 10 I would be a little surprised if it got Strong or greater on the RONI. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 Some food for thought: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 El Nino developing in the east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 13 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Some food for thought: I'm really curious to see what the N. America 500mb does next Winter if a strong El Nino develops, after the record +H5 out West the last 2 Winters. We're kind of breaking into a new cycle here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted March 12 Share Posted March 12 14 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm really curious to see what the N. America 500mb does next Winter if a strong El Nino develops, after the record +H5 out West the last 2 Winters. We're kind of breaking into a new cycle here. I have even seen talk of a super strong El Nino, which could brings in a whole different set of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 Hottest March's in Phoenix, rolled forward to the following April - August (29 analogs) 12z EPS mean for Phoenix has 100, 102, 101 March 19-21. Their all time monthly high for March was 100 on March 26, 1988. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 12 Author Share Posted March 12 8 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hottest March's in Phoenix, rolled forward to the following April - August (29 analogs). This is the following Winter - so you can see the PHX happening is a developing-El Nino occurrence as this Winter precip pattern is very El Nino There has never been a year in the 70-year composite that matched the "Winter before El Nino" better, in the CONUS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13 Share Posted March 13 I can see why the models are going so strong with the El Niño next winter. The last two winters followed the North Pacific strong El Niño precursor pattern. This two winter regime featured a strong -WPO in the Bering Sea and a ridge over the Western North America. But we will need to watch the El Niño development going forward to see if the El Niño is as robust as 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983. Probably need to get through the spring forecast barrier period before we have an idea about next winter. If the previous multiyear composite works out, then the ridge next winter will be centered just north of the Great Lakes into the Northeast. This progression below isn’t a forecast yet, but something to watch for if the El Niño becomes as strong as model forecasts. Plus the sample size only consists of 3 multiyear periods since 1981. 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 winter 500 mb composite 2014-2015, 2013-2014, 1996-1997, 1995-1996, 1981-1982, and 1980-1981 composites Roll forward to the 2015-2016, 1997-1998, and 1982-1983 winters 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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