February 2026 OBS & Discussion

[golfer07840]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

the whole winter was mild especially compared to the year before which was epic; this was the only major storm in 95, included in kocin's book; i remember it was a saturday so impacts were less; it would be the last storm i would use a shovel on; december 95 i bought a snow blower and guess what, we had a major snow two days later....ya'll know what the rest of that winter was like; the blower was good for up to 12 inches......i thought that would be plenty.....wrong...

So strange I barely remember that storm, probably because it was on a Saturday. 

And the winter of '95/'96 was so long. It was in the high 30s/low 40s until mid April and felt like it would never end. 

My GF, now wife, and I went to Florida in March and we basked in the 80 degrees for 10 days. We come back and it was freezing rain and 38. Awful 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, Monty said:

I wouldn't weenie this post but I don't find it compelling. Dave is a proud, loud, card carrying Democrat and I feel his weather opinions are biased by his political opinions. If I am reading his graphic correctly there are 18 fewer balloons going up over the USA every day than before the budget cuts, and 5 of them are downstream from us. How many more private balloons are going up today compared to 5 or 10 years ago with data available to the globals? Have sattelite density and observational quality improved at all? Are the number and quality of plane sensors unchanged? What percentage of reduction does this represent when accounting for balloon soundings globally? 

"Fewer balloons is bad and ruining modeling" is a pretty simple take on the matter. 

As another poster said we've seen some abysmal model performance over the last five years, particularly the GFS since its latest "upgrade." These failures predate NOAA budget cuts. 

the effects are noticeable in all agencies and have been written about extensively in respected publications, at least the ones not owned by murdoch or bezos.....a professional has listed his reasons and you have answered with an anecdote from a poster here. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, golfer07840 said:

So strange I barely remember that storm, probably because it was on a Saturday. 

And the winter of '95/'96 was so long. It was in the high 30s/low 40s until mid April and felt like it would never end. 

My GF, now wife, and I went to Florida in March and we basked in the 80 degrees for 10 days. We come back and it was freezing rain and 38. Awful 

it also came on the heels of 94; people had gotten used to big snows the year before, and many were talking about the storm coming and were ready for it. and that was basically it for the whole winter.

[WeatherGeek2025]

note the gfs ai shows some frozen precip friday night 

[donsutherland1]

New York City remains on course for a winter season mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Much will depend on the warmup that will conclude February. The last time that happened was in 2014-2015.

Some of the guidance and a number of individual ensemble members continue to suggest that the New York City area could experience a significant or major snowfall during the February 22-24 period. That's far from a done deal, despite support from the highest-ranked operational model, the ECMWF-AIFS. For now, the possible event is a low probability, high-impact scenario. The picture should become clearer later this week.

To date, New York City has seen 22.3" of snow. 7.7" of additional snowfall would bring the seasonal figure to 30.0". Were that to happen, Winter 2025-2026 would be a special winter for its combination of snowfall and cold.

The last five winters to see a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0° or below and 30.0" or more snowfall were 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1993-1994, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015. 

 

[SACRUS]

36 / 34 - a rapid melt off kind of day and the warmest day since the warmth of early Jan for many.  Perhaps a stray 50.  Might be the only chink of sun we see for a while with a cloudy and overall wet week that may transition to white by Sunday - Monday.  Near to below avg beyond the weekend/monday period - 2/23 - beyond.

 

[Monty]

8 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

the effects are noticeable in all agencies and have been written about extensively in respected publications, at least the ones not owned by murdoch or bezos.....a professional has listed his reasons and you have answered with an anecdote from a poster here. 

If there are observed and measurable reductions in model accuracy due to fewer balloon launches, please link me to this info. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

94-95 being warm and virtually snowless (with the exception of February), despite being a moderate el nino, shows how things were screwed up after Pinatubo. 92-93 was the backloaded winter with the Storm of the Century in mid-March, while 93-94 and 95-96 were wall-to-wall cold and snowy.

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

New York City remains on course for a winter season mean temperature of 32.0° or below. Much will depend on the warmup that will conclude February. The last time that happened was in 2018-2019.

Some of the guidance and a number of individual ensemble members continue to suggest that the New York City area could experience a significant or major snowfall during the February 22-24 period. That's far from a done deal, despite support from the highest-ranked operational model, the ECMWF-AIFS. For now, the possible event is a low probability, high-impact scenario. The picture should become clearer later this week.

To date, New York City has seen 22.3" of snow. 7.7" of additional snowfall would bring the seasonal figure to 30.0". Were that to happen, Winter 2025-2026 would be a special winter for its combination of snowfall and cold.

The last five winters to see a seasonal mean temperature of 32.0° or below and 30.0" or more snowfall were 1960-1961, 1977-1978, 1993-1994, 2002-2003 and 2014-2015. 

 

Hi Don,
I'm surprised to see that 1976-1977 winter is not on this list.  Perhaps there was a warm spell(s) that increased the mean average for the period? FD

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

94-95 being warm and virtually snowless (with the exception of February), despite being a moderate el nino, shows how things were screwed up after Pinatubo. 92-93 was the backloaded winter with the Storm of the Century in mid-March, while 93-94 and 95-96 were wall-to-wall cold and snowy.

Good summary of that period. February 1995 did have that one-footer for most of our region; I guess you alluded to that one.

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hi Don,
I'm surprised to see that 1976-1977 winter is not on this list.  Perhaps there was a warm spell(s) that increased the mean average for the period? FD

1976-77 didn't make it, because the winter was frigid (28.3° seasonal mean temperature), but seasonal snowfall was below 30.0" (24.5").

[PhiEaglesfan712]

45 minutes ago, Freezing Drizzle said:

Hi Don,
I'm surprised to see that 1976-1977 winter is not on this list.  Perhaps there was a warm spell(s) that increased the mean average for the period? FD

The ones I'm more surprised about are 1995-96, 2003-04, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Those were almost wall-to-wall cold in December-February, and I know all of these winters did 40+ inches in NYC. No way 2018-19 was colder than all of those. If anything 18-19 was near average temperaturewise December-February (though November and March were well below average).

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The ones I'm more surprised about are 1995-96, 2003-04, 2010-11, and 2013-14. Those were almost wall-to-wall cold in December-February, and I know all of these winters did 40+ inches in NYC. No way 2018-19 was colder than all of those. If anything 18-19 was near average temperaturewise December-February (though November and March were well below average).

The mean temperatures for those winters were:

1995-1996: 32.2°
2003-2004: 32.4°
2010-2011: 32.7°
2013-2014: 33.0°

Finally, the reference to the last winter with a mean temperature of 32° or below should be to 2014-15, as shown in past posts. Apologies for the error.

[Freezing Drizzle]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

1976-77 didn't make it, because the winter was frigid (28.3° seasonal mean temperature), but seasonal snowfall was below 30.0" (24.5").

Thanks Don. Sorry, I didn't catch that point.  I recall very cold, light, fluffy snowfalls that season; they did last, though.

[wthrmn654]

Dammit snow/ ice killer advisory issued to 10 am tomorrow.  Bye snow pack. 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Dammit snow/ ice killer advisory issued to 10 am tomorrow.  Bye snow pack. 

melting here slowly-up to 45

[wthrmn654]

Stupid fog. All have yet to hit 40 since Jan 22 lol

[wthrmn654]

Currently 37 and a little fog more hazy then Anthony

[Wannabehippie]

24 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Currently 37 and a little fog more hazy then Anthony

49 degrees by me. 

25 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Stupid fog. All have yet to hit 40 since Jan 22 lol

That fog must be eating away those big piles of snow.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 69 (2022)
NYC: 68 (2022)
LGA: 66 (1976)
JFK: 65 (1976)


Lows:

EWR: 0 (1979)
NYC: -5 (1896)
LGA: 2 (1979)
JFK: 5 (1979)

Historical:

 

1894: According to Grazulis, an estimated F2 tornado hits 5 miles south of Warren, Arkansas. An older woman was killed in one of the small homes that were destroyed. In addition, fruit trees were ripped out and carried a half-mile. Another tornado, estimated F3, killed two people in Claiborne County, Louisiana.

 

1926: A deadly avalanche, Utah's worst, demolishes 14 miner's cottages and a three-story boarding house in Bingham Canyon. Thirty-six were killed and 13 injured. 

1930 - Eureka, CA, reported an all-time record high of 85 degrees, a record which lasted until September of 1983. (The Weather Channel)

1936 - The temperature at McIntosh SD plunged to 58 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum)

1958 - The greatest snowstorm of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in interior New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches at Washington D.C., and 15.5 inches at Baltimore MD. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. (David Ludlum)

 

1958: From the 14th through the 17th, one of the most significant snowstorms of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in the interior of New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches in Washington D.C. and 15.5 inches in Baltimore, Maryland. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States.

 

1973: Snow showers moved across southeast Texas, with most locations only reporting snow flurries. However, the Houston Intercontinental Airport measured 1.4 inches of snow.

1987 - A couple of winter storms, one off the Atlantic coast and another over the south central U.S., produced snow and ice from the Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic Coast Region. Freezing rain produced a coat of ice three inches thick in northern South Carolina, and 30,000 homes around Pee Dee were left without electricity. Parts of south central Kentucky were without electricity for three days following the storm, which was their worst in 35 years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 63 mph at Ontario. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Colorado, with 11 inches reported at Strontia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Low pressure off the Washington coast produced more than a foot of snow in the Cascade Mountains, and more than three inches of rain along the Northern Pacific Coast. Spokane WA was blanketed with 13 inches of snow. Cold arctic air in the Upper Midwest produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.10 inches at Duluth MN, 31.09 inches at Minneapolis MN, and 31.21 inches at Bismarck ND. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - The biggest winter storm of the season hit the Pacific Coast Region. In northern California, snow fell along the coast, and two day totals in the mountains ranged up to 67 inches at Echo Summit. Snowfall totals in the mountains of southern California ranged up to 48 inches at Green Valley, with 46 inches reported at Big Bear. Up to two feet of snow blanketed the southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and 20 to 35 inches were reported in the northern Cascades of Oregon. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed Seattle WA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

Sunny here - came out about an hour ago

 

47 / 37

 

 

Foggy night in store

[wthrmn654]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

49 degrees by me. 

That fog must be eating away those big piles of snow.

 

Surprisingly that's more snow showing then grass only along road edges is grass showing lol it's down to 36..

[wthrmn654]

Correction high of 37.5 now 35.8.  Still haven't hit 40. Quite the impressive stretch to be honest. 

[donsutherland1]

Following a foggy start, tomorrow will see highs reach the lower and perhaps middle 40s. Some rain showers or a period of rain is likely later tomorrow into early Thursday as a system streaks rapidly from Minnesota across central New York State and into New England. Parts of central New York State and southern/central New England, including Boston, could see some accumulating snow.

Additional precipitation could arrive Friday or Saturday. Highs will likely reach the 40s through Saturday. 

Numerous ensemble members and operational models continue to suggest the potential for a significant or major snowstorm some time in the February 22-24 timeframe. More evidence in the form of model consensus and support from a large number of individual ensemble members will be needed before there can be reasonable confidence in such a solution. For now, one is dealing with a low probability but high-impact scenario.

An AO-/PNA- pattern, which is forecast for the timeframe involved, has seen a number of significant or major snowstorms during the second half of February. Since 1950, New York City has seen four 6" or above snowstorms during such patterns, including the 1979 President's Day blizzard (12.7") and the February 25-26, 2010 snowstorm (20.9"). In contrast, during AO+/PNA- patterns, New York City has seen just one 6" or above snowstorm. Details should start to become clearer by Wednesday or Thursday.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around February 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will develop during the close of winter.

The SOI was +15.13 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.264 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 97% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.5° (4.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 3.8 below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

Overall, Winter 2025-2026 is on track for a seasonal mean temperature of 31.9°. That would be the lowest winter mean temperature since Winter 2014-2015 when the mean temperature was 31.7°. Winter 2025-2026 would only become the fourth winter of the 21st century with a mean temperature of 32.0° or below.

[Wannabehippie]

Felt so nice outside today, I went out wearing just shorts and a tshirt. Felt downright warm in the sun, away from the shadows.