NEG NAO Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 8 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: ICON OTS . doesn't matter how far west the trough is it has to turn negative sooner - if it stays positive the chances of the storm moving up the coast too far east increases 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Great shift Seems kinda disjointed with the energy until it’s too late and out to sea. In any case it’s the Icon and not too concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: I doubt there's ever been a storm where Hatteras gets a foot and we get nothing Cape Hatteras has only received two 12" or above snowstorms: December 29-30, 1917 12.0" (NYC: 2.0") December 23-24, 1989 13.3" (NYC: None) 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucy Pull Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 GFS further west with northern stream than euro and even its 6z at hr66. See if that translates as the run continues…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The Northern stream shortwave over the Canadian prairies acts as a kicker. It’s a lot slower on the GFS than the Euro or the ICON. That’s going to be a major issue if the faster/stronger idea is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, Lucy Pull said: GFS further west with northern stream than euro and even its 6z at hr66. See if that translates as the run continues…. AI GFS looks NW of 06 by a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Northern stream shortwave over the Canadian prairies acts as a kicker. It’s a lot slower on the GFS than the Euro or the ICON. That’s going to be a major issue if the faster/stronger idea is correct. Yep, we might be singing its praises later this week if the coastal storm development gets itself together so we’re not tracking this into NYC. The ridge axis here doesn’t scream way offshore track to me. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: I'd be more worried about ice damming than structural issues, unless your house is framed with balsa wood. Based on the temperature forecast and the amount of snow on my roof, I am worried about ice damming. Yea I already have roof damming. May have to call someone soon to take care of it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Gfs is coming west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 same idea as ICON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Some slight improvements on the GFS but don’t know if it’ll be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 We can afford baby steps at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 MUCH better looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Here she comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 GFS looks great to me at H5. Trough axis is further West and more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The kicker is stronger though, and it still gets kicked East. Reminds me of Juno (yes, I despise naming winter storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 timing is later, but still gets kicked out to sea after stalling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This look verbatim is not going to do it for us. Even a neutral tilt would be better than this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1/27 12z ICON total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Gets 2ft into Southern Jersey. Definitely a step in the right direction. Let's see the euro do the same. Still plenty of time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1/27 12z GFS ACY white out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 We need more wave spacing. Also, the storm peaks well South of us and is already occluding as it passes East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1/27 12z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, SACRUS said: 1/27 12z GFS ACY white out 50-75 miles further NW would do it. Right where you want the GFS at this lead time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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