benjammin Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Apparently the Google Weathernext model went east and drier at 12z fwiw. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, RaleighNC said: Assume errors in every AI output and factcheck the hell out of it with actual sources. I had ChatGPT flat out invent a quote and a case the other day. I had it do my taxes. Says I am getting back $2 million. Looks good to me. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 So yeah, dont trust Gemini outputs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The coastal seems out of question now, this is all ULL snow 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 It’s ULL or bust according to Wnext. Thats not an unreasonable output. Hope for a phase but an ULL can really thump in these setups. I wouldn’t expect details to be ironed out until Thursday if that’s indeed the victory path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: So yeah, dont trust Gemini outputs That stinks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Verbatim its still a nice 2-4 or 3-6 storm (high ratios) for most of WNC and SC. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I know it’s depressing when we’re all coming off the GFS and Canadian highs from earlier, but don’t sleep on that ULL. It’s the type of setup that’ll lull you to sleep until Thursday night when the CAMs really come into range and can analyze the convective setup. There would be some BIG winners and some big losers. One of those storms where someone gets a death band to the northwest of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 So maybe Gemini wasn't totally lying. You can see the heavier precip near the Blue Rudge 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Someone may have already answered this and I highly doubt the 12z GFS is right, but does it or does it not handle the northern stream better than most guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Has Weathernext been tested with a setup like this before? How much should we put into the model? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 hours ago, olafminesaw said: 6z As it stands: Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done) Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model No phase: Euro, ICON 12Z Full phase: Canadian, GFS, Partial/late Phase: Euro⏫, Euro AI, AI GFS No phase: UKMET⏬, ICON, NEXT model⏬ Confidence is growing in the partial phase scenario, but all options still on the table 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Theres going to be some splitting of the herds here come Thursday if this keeps looking this way, with WNC / SC folks needing one thread, and C/ENC/VA folks needing another. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I’m not hanging my hat until 00z tomorrow night. If this thing does miss the phase and stays off shore I think we have to consider weather next 2 the new king though, at least for winter storms. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I think all I can say with any confidence is at least measurable snow has become more likely for most of North Carolina. If you take the runs both the deterministic and the ensembles, and yes, AI has a seat at the table now too I suppose, I think miserable snow has become more likely for a good portion of the state. Still have to iron out the details and there are a lot of details still, but that seems to be a growing model consensus and even an increasing confidence from local Mets, etc. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Just now, AirNelson39 said: I’m not hanging my hat until 00z tomorrow night. If this thing does miss the phase and stays off shore I think we have to consider weather next 2 the new king though, at least for winter storms. Agreed because it hasn’t really waivered on evolution or footprint, just some ticks down in precip. Virtually no track shift the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mstr4j Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I know it’s depressing when we’re all coming off the GFS and Canadian highs from earlier, but don’t sleep on that ULL. It’s the type of setup that’ll lull you to sleep until Thursday night when the CAMs really come into range and can analyze the convective setup. There would be some BIG winners and some big losers. One of those storms where someone gets a death band to the northwest of the ULL. Im afraid I can predict who the big losers will be...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Agreed because it hasn’t really waivered on evolution or footprint, just some ticks down in precip. Virtually no track shift the last few runs. It was unlikely the coastal would give us much anyways. Its all ULL/leeside enhancement or bust. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: It was unlikely the coastal would give us much anyways. It’s all ULL/leeside enhancement or bust. It’s been a long time since we’ve had lee side enhancement. I couldn’t even recall the last time we’ve had that setup. Long overdue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighNC Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 If we have enough models all doing something different, eventually ONE of them has to be right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ObiWanKarlNobi Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, RaleighNC said: If we have enough models all doing something different, eventually ONE of them has to be right. 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 There really aren't huge differences between the EUro and GFS, wouldn't take much to trend towards a big storm or towards nothing: EURO GFS 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Im afraid I can predict who the big losers will be...lolAnyone in GA unless on the border of SC/NC lol Atlanta misses out yet again… . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYweatherguy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Aleksey said: Anyone in GA unless on the border of SC/NC lol Atlanta misses out yet again… . Still plenty of time for this to move west. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 This is very bullish: https://x.com/nwsraleigh/status/2016222988543074686?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 46 minutes ago, wncsnow said: So maybe Gemini wasn't totally lying. You can see the heavier precip near the Blue Rudge According to this, precip was definitely enhanced in western NC when compared to 6z. Very interesting to see how this plays out, but it kind of did like the Euro, 12z looked a tad better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Still plenty of time for this to move west. We shall see. I highly doubt it will. I’m like 20 miles west of Athens and I’m gonna miss out on it guaranteed. We just can’t buy snow over this way. Central, southern and coastal GA all got snow before us, SC is going to get snow before us, and we’re gonna miss out once again. I’m so over it. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Aleksey said: I highly doubt it will. I’m like 20 miles west of Athens and I’m gonna miss out on it guaranteed. We just can’t buy snow over this way. Central, southern and coastal GA all got snow before us, SC is going to get snow before us, and we’re gonna miss out once again. I’m so over it. . 20 miles west of Athens def still in game at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Aleksey said: I highly doubt it will. I’m like 20 miles west of Athens and I’m gonna miss out on it guaranteed. We just can’t buy snow over this way. Central, southern and coastal GA all got snow before us, SC is going to get snow before us, and we’re gonna miss out once again. I’m so over it. . Different setups but we watched a region wide overrunning setup turn into a mega miller b in like 2 runs last week at this range 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Also does anyone find the modeling to be eerily striking to the Christmas storm of 2010? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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