The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[Snowncanes]

The second is a well developed area on regional radar across the
eastern Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain and is being
driven by a strengthening H925 FGEN band. This area is
surprisingly not being resolved well within the hi-res guidance,
but rather the global and regional models; such as the GFS,
Canadian reg/nh, and NAM 12km. These models suggest liquid
equivalent of 0.3 to 0.6 will be possible within this area by
18z and would produce 3 to as much as 6 inches (with SLR of
closer to 11:1 at this time) before the afternoon hours. If
observational trends hold and the global models do handle its
evolution well, then as the mid/upper trough negatively tilts
and brings significant synoptic forcing overtop this band, it is
reasonably possible that 0.75 to 1 inch of liquid equivalent
falls and results in a swath of 10-15 inches of snow. This swath
would likely fall within a larger area of 4-8 inches in the
Coastal Plain into the eastern Sandhills.

 

[NCSU_Pi]

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

Alan just said 2 to 4 for Raleigh


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Flakes?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just now, Snowncanes said:

The second is a well developed area on regional radar across the
eastern Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain and is being
driven by a strengthening H925 FGEN band. This area is
surprisingly not being resolved well within the hi-res guidance,
but rather the global and regional models; such as the GFS,
Canadian reg/nh, and NAM 12km. These models suggest liquid
equivalent of 0.3 to 0.6 will be possible within this area by
18z and would produce 3 to as much as 6 inches (with SLR of
closer to 11:1 at this time) before the afternoon hours. If
observational trends hold and the global models do handle its
evolution well, then as the mid/upper trough negatively tilts
and brings significant synoptic forcing overtop this band, it is
reasonably possible that 0.75 to 1 inch of liquid equivalent
falls and results in a swath of 10-15 inches of snow. This swath
would likely fall within a larger area of 4-8 inches in the
Coastal Plain into the eastern Sandhills.

 

Wow

[Coach McGuirk]

I doubt I get over an inch of snow. 

[Isopycnic]

Reminds me of this one. After the huge 20”+ storm in January 2000 all of the Mets forecasted a widespread 6-12” across nc for December 4, 2000. Damn dryslots..

[StantonParkHoya]

3k NAM is 6 inches for wake county vs 0 at 6z


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[SnowGoose69]

31 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

@SnowGoose69any snow going to make it to Dunwoody/roswell you think? 

I think you’re looking at 11am-2pm for most of it to fall.  There is extensive coverage much further west than modeled but the rates in those bands right now aren’t very good.  Over time as we see the area pivot south I think most accumulation is very late morning into afternoon 

[Regan]

Allan tweeted that there’s hope for make if you look at the Nam. Later today and int tonight. 

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

3k NAM is 6 inches for wake county vs 0 at 6z


.

Hopefully the NAM is onto something. I want everybody to cash in. 

[ADB83]

Hopefully the NAM is onto something. I want everybody to cash in. 

Same. This will be so much more fun if the Triangle is able to get in on it


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Whiteout conditions in North Charlotte

[Aleksey]

Absolutely pouring snow over here. Already half inch in 45 min and the heaviest is yet to come. Started an hour ago


.

[suzook]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There is extensive coverage much further west than modeled but the rates in those bands right now aren’t very good.  Over time as we see the area pivot south I think most accumulation is very late morning into afternoon 

I am literally under a band in Newnan GA. Radar shows it as heavy, but it is flurries at best. A few tiny flakes here and there.

[Clemsonlady]

The good snow… light flakes but heavy
27 degrees.. Clemson SC


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[ILM2714]

Let’s go boys! 
 

We’ve a few hours to go still before we cash in. Send it this way fellas!

[Isopycnic]

Riding the NAM!

[sinterpol]

3 minutes ago, Clemsonlady said:

The good snow… light flakes but heavy
27 degrees.. Clemson SC


.

Congrats! I graduated from Daniel in 2000. My father taught ROTC at Clemson from 96-99.

[UpstateSCBud]

Can someone post totals from the 3k NAM?

[lilj4425]

HRRR even giving a little love to Raleigh now. It was bone dry before. 

[Coach McGuirk]

This is going to be a huge bust of a storm.

[Regan]

It’s not the 3k, but Allan just posted this 12k saying it offers hope

[Isopycnic]

3 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Can someone post totals from the 3k NAM?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026013112&fh=38

[SouthCentralWakeCo]

7 minutes ago, Regan said:

It’s not the 3k, but Allan just posted this 12k saying it offers hope

That is the 3km

[NEGA_Dawg]

Light flurries have begun. 

[UpstateSCBud]

3 minutes ago, Regan said:

It’s not the 3k, but Allan just posted this 12k saying it offers hope

That really backed off on the figures for the upstate 

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said:

That really backed off on the figures for the upstate 

The latest HRRR still looks really good. 

[Isopycnic]

6 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

This is going to be a huge bust of a storm.

Definitely a Sydney Sweeney storm

[Isopycnic]

The sun is trying to pop out in west Durham

[dorkchopper]

6 minutes ago, Regan said:

It’s not the 3k, but Allan just posted this 12k saying it offers hope

..

Coming out of lurking to comment that I feel personally targeted here in Alamance.

[NorthHillsWx]

14 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

Riding the NAM!

Here comes the hopium!