Snowncanes Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The second is a well developed area on regional radar across the eastern Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain and is being driven by a strengthening H925 FGEN band. This area is surprisingly not being resolved well within the hi-res guidance, but rather the global and regional models; such as the GFS, Canadian reg/nh, and NAM 12km. These models suggest liquid equivalent of 0.3 to 0.6 will be possible within this area by 18z and would produce 3 to as much as 6 inches (with SLR of closer to 11:1 at this time) before the afternoon hours. If observational trends hold and the global models do handle its evolution well, then as the mid/upper trough negatively tilts and brings significant synoptic forcing overtop this band, it is reasonably possible that 0.75 to 1 inch of liquid equivalent falls and results in a swath of 10-15 inches of snow. This swath would likely fall within a larger area of 4-8 inches in the Coastal Plain into the eastern Sandhills. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: Alan just said 2 to 4 for Raleigh . Flakes? 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, Snowncanes said: The second is a well developed area on regional radar across the eastern Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain and is being driven by a strengthening H925 FGEN band. This area is surprisingly not being resolved well within the hi-res guidance, but rather the global and regional models; such as the GFS, Canadian reg/nh, and NAM 12km. These models suggest liquid equivalent of 0.3 to 0.6 will be possible within this area by 18z and would produce 3 to as much as 6 inches (with SLR of closer to 11:1 at this time) before the afternoon hours. If observational trends hold and the global models do handle its evolution well, then as the mid/upper trough negatively tilts and brings significant synoptic forcing overtop this band, it is reasonably possible that 0.75 to 1 inch of liquid equivalent falls and results in a swath of 10-15 inches of snow. This swath would likely fall within a larger area of 4-8 inches in the Coastal Plain into the eastern Sandhills. Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I doubt I get over an inch of snow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Reminds me of this one. After the huge 20”+ storm in January 2000 all of the Mets forecasted a widespread 6-12” across nc for December 4, 2000. Damn dryslots.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3k NAM is 6 inches for wake county vs 0 at 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 31 minutes ago, neatlburbwthrguy said: @SnowGoose69any snow going to make it to Dunwoody/roswell you think? I think you’re looking at 11am-2pm for most of it to fall. There is extensive coverage much further west than modeled but the rates in those bands right now aren’t very good. Over time as we see the area pivot south I think most accumulation is very late morning into afternoon 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Allan tweeted that there’s hope for make if you look at the Nam. Later today and int tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said: 3k NAM is 6 inches for wake county vs 0 at 6z . Hopefully the NAM is onto something. I want everybody to cash in. 9 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Hopefully the NAM is onto something. I want everybody to cash in. Same. This will be so much more fun if the Triangle is able to get in on it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Whiteout conditions in North Charlotte 7 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aleksey Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Absolutely pouring snow over here. Already half inch in 45 min and the heaviest is yet to come. Started an hour ago . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There is extensive coverage much further west than modeled but the rates in those bands right now aren’t very good. Over time as we see the area pivot south I think most accumulation is very late morning into afternoon I am literally under a band in Newnan GA. Radar shows it as heavy, but it is flurries at best. A few tiny flakes here and there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clemsonlady Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The good snow… light flakes but heavy27 degrees.. Clemson SC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILM2714 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Let’s go boys! We’ve a few hours to go still before we cash in. Send it this way fellas! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Riding the NAM! 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sinterpol Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Clemsonlady said: The good snow… light flakes but heavy 27 degrees.. Clemson SC . Congrats! I graduated from Daniel in 2000. My father taught ROTC at Clemson from 96-99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Can someone post totals from the 3k NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 HRRR even giving a little love to Raleigh now. It was bone dry before. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 This is going to be a huge bust of a storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 It’s not the 3k, but Allan just posted this 12k saying it offers hope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said: Can someone post totals from the 3k NAM? https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2026013112&fh=38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDUBrierCreek Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 7 minutes ago, Regan said: It’s not the 3k, but Allan just posted this 12k saying it offers hope That is the 3km 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGA_Dawg Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Light flurries have begun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, Regan said: It’s not the 3k, but Allan just posted this 12k saying it offers hope That really backed off on the figures for the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 31 Author Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said: That really backed off on the figures for the upstate The latest HRRR still looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said: This is going to be a huge bust of a storm. Definitely a Sydney Sweeney storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The sun is trying to pop out in west Durham 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorkchopper Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, Regan said: It’s not the 3k, but Allan just posted this 12k saying it offers hope .. Coming out of lurking to comment that I feel personally targeted here in Alamance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 14 minutes ago, Isopycnic said: Riding the NAM! Here comes the hopium! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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