The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[NCSU_Pi]

39 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

HRRR precip showing a huge dry slot

That thing is a "dry slot" in the same way that being cored by round shot while standing too tall on the weatherdeck is getting "grazed by the enemy."

[Regan]

WRAL said on Facebook they are seeing 2 sweet spots and they are working to update the map again. Well…that didn’t sound good. 

[lilj4425]

NAM is saying step back from the cliff Raleigh peeps.

[kvegas-wx]

Here we go peeps.  Everyone over to the obs thread.  I have steady flurries on the farm cams in Stuart VA!

[Ravens94]

Nam has shifted instability south.  ILM south and west is full of lift

[BornAgain13]

These models are horrible lol... just absolutely atrocious and hardly any consistency especially the short range

[clt_25]

17 minutes ago, Mesoscale Band said:

Amazingly, CLT and its notorious weather dome, still held at bay.  Still a great hit.

Howdy neighbor! Yes hard to believe this storm is somehow disabling the CLT weather dome force field! 

[Regan]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

NAM is saying step back from the cliff Raleigh peeps.

Grab my hair. 

[Ravens94]

This is going to be a crusher 

[KChuck]

39 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Yikes. That’s not good for Raleigh. 

Or the Triad

[wake4est]

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

These models are horrible lol... just absolutely atrocious and hardly any consistency especially the short range

Seriously. Either Raleigh gets nothing or a foot. It’s crazy how far off these models are from each other this close to game time. 

[olafminesaw]

The HRRR is really only good for taking radar trends as the event unfolds (under 8 hours) and creating a kind of future radar projection. And for thermal profiles. I wish they had never made it run past 18 hours 

[KrummWx]

We're like 12 hours from the event and I've been following this from the beginning. 0 clue what's going to happen IMBY lol. Literally anything from 0" - 12" seems possible. Outrageous.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Anyone have the latest graf model to post?

[ADB83]

NAM is literally just playing hopscotch skipping back-and-forth every run. It didn’t even screw the Triad that run. I have zero confidence in what’s going to happen to be honest


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[Ravens94]

[KChuck]

32 minutes ago, Grayman said:

I’m heading over to the sanitarium boys. Feel free to meet me over there.

Can we get group rates??? 

[kvegas-wx]

Just now, Ravens94 said:

Slower on the NAM and being pulled back closer to OBX?  This would certainly mean more QPF over eastern NC but also CNC as well correct?  Looks much wetter than 12Z to my untrained eyes.

[wake4est]

[PeeDeeWx]

7 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Nam has shifted instability south.  ILM south and west is full of lift

What does this mean? You aren't talking dry when you say instability, correct?

[SUNYGRAD]

HRRRR doing horrible job with precip.  Never caught up with trends and obs.  Checked webcams and it is snowing in NC mtns----NW.  Hasn't done well at all most the day. 

[phishbfm]

Issued at 3:16pm...

[Ravens94]

[StantonParkHoya]

Raleigh has 20 inches on the NAM and 0 on the HRRR. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it.


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[Regan]

Can you imagine all being in the same room?

donuts?

[SouthCentralWakeCo]

Need to start using the 3km NAM at this range instead of regular and 12km right?

[HKY_WX]

[SUNYGRAD]

NAM is back some 

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Raleigh has 20 inches on the NAM and 0 on the HRRR. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it.


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I would not trust HRRR at moment, then again let's see with NAM.  The 18z looks more reasonable.  

[thekidcurtis]

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Raleigh has 20 inches on the NAM and 0 on the HRRR. I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it.


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We take the mean and ride. 10" FTW!