The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[benjammin]

Apparently the Google Weathernext model went east and drier at 12z fwiw.

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[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, RaleighNC said:

Assume errors in every AI output and factcheck the hell out of it with actual sources. 

I had ChatGPT flat out invent a quote and a case the other day. 

 

I had it do my taxes. Says I am getting back $2 million. Looks good to me.  

[wncsnow]

So yeah, dont trust Gemini outputs 

[wncsnow]

The coastal seems out of question now, this is all ULL snow

[BooneWX]

It’s ULL or bust according to Wnext. Thats not an unreasonable output. Hope for a phase but an ULL can really thump in these setups. I wouldn’t expect details to be ironed out until Thursday if that’s indeed the victory path.

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

So yeah, dont trust Gemini outputs 

That stinks!

[wncsnow]

Verbatim its still a nice 2-4 or 3-6 storm (high ratios) for most of WNC and SC. 

[BooneWX]

I know it’s depressing when we’re all coming off the GFS and Canadian highs from earlier, but don’t sleep on that ULL. It’s the type of setup that’ll lull you to sleep until Thursday night when the CAMs really come into range and can analyze the convective setup. There would be some BIG winners and some big losers. One of those storms where someone gets a death band to the northwest of the ULL.

[wncsnow]

So maybe Gemini wasn't totally lying. You can see the heavier precip near the Blue Rudge 

[BornAgain13]

Someone may have already answered this and I highly doubt the 12z GFS is right, but does it or does it not handle the northern stream better than most guidance?

[Shad]

Has Weathernext been tested with a setup like this before?  How much should we put into the model?

[olafminesaw]

5 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

6z

As it stands:

Full phase: Canadian, GFS, UKMET(borderline, but just gets it done)

Partial/late Phase: Euro AI, AI GFS, NEXT model

No phase: Euro, ICON

12Z

Full phase: Canadian, GFS,

Partial/late Phase: Euro⏫, Euro AI, AI GFS

No phase: UKMET⏬, ICON, NEXT model⏬

 

Confidence is growing in the partial phase scenario, but all options still on the table

[StantonParkHoya]

Theres going to be some splitting of the herds here come Thursday if this keeps looking this way, with WNC / SC folks needing one thread, and C/ENC/VA folks needing another.

[AirNelson39]

I’m not hanging my hat until 00z tomorrow night. If this thing does miss the phase and stays off shore I think we have to consider weather next 2 the new king though, at least for winter storms.

[ADB83]

I think all I can say with any confidence is at least measurable snow has become more likely for most of North Carolina. If you take the runs both the deterministic and the ensembles, and yes, AI has a seat at the table now too I suppose, I think miserable snow has become more likely for a good portion of the state. Still have to iron out the details and there are a lot of details still, but that seems to be a growing model consensus and even an increasing confidence from local Mets, etc.


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[BooneWX]

Just now, AirNelson39 said:

I’m not hanging my hat until 00z tomorrow night. If this thing does miss the phase and stays off shore I think we have to consider weather next 2 the new king though, at least for winter storms.

Agreed because it hasn’t really waivered on evolution or footprint, just some ticks down in precip. Virtually no track shift the last few runs.

[mstr4j]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I know it’s depressing when we’re all coming off the GFS and Canadian highs from earlier, but don’t sleep on that ULL. It’s the type of setup that’ll lull you to sleep until Thursday night when the CAMs really come into range and can analyze the convective setup. There would be some BIG winners and some big losers. One of those storms where someone gets a death band to the northwest of the ULL.

Im afraid I can predict who the big losers will be...lol

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Agreed because it hasn’t really waivered on evolution or footprint, just some ticks down in precip. Virtually no track shift the last few runs.

It was unlikely the coastal would give us much anyways. Its all ULL/leeside enhancement or bust. 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It was unlikely the coastal would give us much anyways. It’s all ULL/leeside enhancement or bust. 

It’s been a long time since we’ve had lee side enhancement. I couldn’t even recall the last time we’ve had that setup. Long overdue. 

[RaleighNC]

If we have enough models all doing something different, eventually ONE of them has to be right.

[ObiWanKarlNobi]

4 minutes ago, RaleighNC said:

If we have enough models all doing something different, eventually ONE of them has to be right.

[olafminesaw]

There really aren't huge differences between the EUro and GFS, wouldn't take much to trend towards a big storm or towards nothing:

EURO

GFS

 

[Aleksey]

Im afraid I can predict who the big losers will be...lol

Anyone in GA unless on the border of SC/NC lol Atlanta misses out yet again…


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[NYweatherguy]

3 minutes ago, Aleksey said:

Anyone in GA unless on the border of SC/NC lol Atlanta misses out yet again…


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Still plenty of time for this to move west. We shall see. 

[NorthHillsWx]

This is very bullish:
 

https://x.com/nwsraleigh/status/2016222988543074686?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

[WXNewton]

46 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

So maybe Gemini wasn't totally lying. You can see the heavier precip near the Blue Rudge 

According to this, precip was definitely enhanced in western NC when compared to 6z. Very interesting to see how this plays out, but it kind of did like the Euro, 12z looked a tad better than 6z.

[Aleksey]

Still plenty of time for this to move west. We shall see. 

I highly doubt it will. I’m like 20 miles west of Athens and I’m gonna miss out on it guaranteed. We just can’t buy snow over this way. Central, southern and coastal GA all got snow before us, SC is going to get snow before us, and we’re gonna miss out once again. I’m so over it.


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[neatlburbwthrguy]

1 minute ago, Aleksey said:

I highly doubt it will. I’m like 20 miles west of Athens and I’m gonna miss out on it guaranteed. We just can’t buy snow over this way. Central, southern and coastal GA all got snow before us, SC is going to get snow before us, and we’re gonna miss out once again. I’m so over it.


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20 miles west of Athens def still in game at this point 

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, Aleksey said:

I highly doubt it will. I’m like 20 miles west of Athens and I’m gonna miss out on it guaranteed. We just can’t buy snow over this way. Central, southern and coastal GA all got snow before us, SC is going to get snow before us, and we’re gonna miss out once again. I’m so over it.


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Different setups but we watched a region wide overrunning setup turn into a mega miller b in like 2 runs last week at this range 

[BooneWX]

Also does anyone find the modeling to be eerily striking to the Christmas storm of 2010?