The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[ADB83]

Euro AI definitely still gives us some snow but yeah she’s trending east. No big surprise if you lived in the Piedmont Triad, the last number of years. I do hope the coast can score!


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[AirNelson39]

The writing is probably on the wall BUT this is the time frame for the Christmas 2010 storm where majority of models lost the phase only to bring it back around the 3 day window. I know we are 15 years separated from those models but unfortunately it seems not much as changed other than the intro of the AI models.

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

Lol.....good Ole I told you so moment

I would take the UKMET with a grain of salt, it shifted several hundred miles back and forth last storm in 2-3 runs. Players are on the field and this thing has legs with some ensemble support. Def, going to take another day or two to see how everything comes into alignment.

[Supercane]

This isn't a terrible look at 4.5 days out for those in central NC:

[WXNewton]

11 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

Euro AI definitely still gives us some snow but yeah she’s trending east. No big surprise if you lived in the Piedmont Triad, the last number of years. I do hope the coast can score!


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I would necessarily call this a trend that it shifted East, my take on it is the precip just wasn't as heavy as 6z looks more like a wobble to me and with potential ratios being higher this run was a significant snowstorm per NC standards for the whole state. Here are the last 4 runs and I like where we stand, let's see what Ensembles say.

[ADB83]

The 12z will be a better run than the 6z, at least for Western North Carolina


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[BornAgain13]

Euro AI was close to 6z it just wasn't as juiced. 

[ADB83]

I would necessarily call this a trend that it shifted East, my take on it is the precip just wasn't as heavy as 6z looks more like a wobble to me and with potential ratios being higher this run was a significant snowstorm per NC standards for the whole state. Here are the last 4 runs and I like where we stand, let's see what Ensembles say.

There was a little bit less moisture, but yeah, it wasn’t much difference overall to be honest good point


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[Upstate Tiger]

Not a bad look on the Euro IMO.  I’m ok with the evolution of the surface features on the 12z.  

[BornAgain13]

12z EURO wasn't what we wanted but it wasn't a total whiff like 6z. 

Onto 18z

[Snowncanes]

500 level trended slightly better. A little more southwest. Just not quite soon enough for a full bomb, but it’s close.

[BornAgain13]

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

There was a little bit less moisture, but yeah, it wasn’t much difference overall to be honest good point


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Factoring in 15:1 ratios or 18:1 it was a state wide 6-9" snowfall.

[StantonParkHoya]

ENC looking good right now

[ADB83]

Honestly, more in line with some other guidance that time and stops the trend the other way. I’ll take it.


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[BornAgain13]

12z EURO stopped the bleeding and ticked back west. Hopefully that continues at 18z.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

ENC looking good right now

This was a good run for central NC. I’ve learned my lesson about being in the bullseye 4 days out 

[NorthHillsWx]

When do the pieces of this start moving onshore? Tomorrow?

[NorthHillsWx]

I’ve gotta say hoping for a NW trend on a phased system feels 10000x times more productive than the opposite, like last weekend 

[olafminesaw]

Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide  snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time

[BornAgain13]

I could see this end up being a blend of GFS/CMC/Euro put together. The GFS would be great i just dont see that crazy of a run happening. The CMC seems more reasonable. The Euro hopefully trends to that at 18z. Then its game on. 

[BornAgain13]

Just now, olafminesaw said:

Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide  snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time

This would be more likely. Although ratios may make that a little higher. But a general 2-4 or 3-6" fluffy snow would make a lot of people happy. 

[DTP]

44 minutes ago, CoolBreeze said:

Man, this brought back a lot of old memories of when I took statistics, It helps to makes sense of why models "lose" storms as we get closer. 

Thanks for the explanation!

Np- hope it helps- just hate to see everyone get so darn disappointed....the Schrodinger's cat paradox comes to mind- except with modeled storms- is it alive, or is it dead?  Can't be both at once- function v reality 

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ve gotta say hoping for a NW trend on a phased system feels 10000x times more productive than the opposite, like last weekend 

I suspect that IF the storms amps at all, a NW trend is inevitable, because the cold press almost always ends up being overmodeled.  Sure, suppressed/OTS is definitely still an option, but as of now I think this is an ideal presentation for Triangle east, with the storm still there but hanging out just off the coast.

[Tony Sisk]

This is looking more and more like a snowstorm for the Sharks

[BornAgain13]

I do like that the AI GFS has been trending wetter and wetter.

[ADB83]

From Brad P.


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[olafminesaw]

EPS also looked improved. Just waiting on NEXT to wrap up the 12z suite 

[Buddy1987]

 

Great post by one of the Mets in the MA Forum!

If the meat of that developing advection lobe continues to trend west along the major axis here, the surface depiction will change in a hurry. Notable improvement at H5 already (in the same direction as the GFS/AIGFS, even if the ECAIFS only nudged a bit initially). Holding it back right now a bit is the trend in the lobe over SE Canada.

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

 

Great post by one of the Mets in the MA Forum!

If the meat of that developing advection lobe continues to trend west along the major axis here, the surface depiction will change in a hurry. Notable improvement at H5 already (in the same direction as the GFS/AIGFS, even if the ECAIFS only nudged a bit initially). Holding it back right now a bit is the trend in the lobe over SE Canada.

Everything trended West/slower with the last storm, so not entirely unreasonable to expect