BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 18z Eps would of been even better but it had a few lows way out to see which skewed the mean... take those 3 out and it would of been widespread half foot means 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Weathernext or bust for me. It was showing this threat before the Euro had a clue. New run coming in 30 minutes 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 50 minutes ago, Omen said: Nice uptick on the EPS for those of us in Virginia. We hate Virgina? Snow hogs Virginia is not in the southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 WeatherNext is the Alpha model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 45 minutes ago, RTPGiants said: Can someone make both the positive and negative case about Euro performance at this range vs. last week's storm? Not just a "we never get snow" vs "it has to work once" argument, but an actual data based assessment? I made several posts about this in the disco thread for the last storm regarding all of the models (not just the Euro), and why they have predictive difficulty more than 3 days out....I have created multiple complex models in finance involving delta hedging equity and futures options for prime dealers, so I have a pretty good handle on what I am looking at....my posts go into the "whys" of what you are asking..... Short answer/cliffs if you don't feel like searching- they aren't designed to nail down specifics this far out, just probabilities....that being said, I don't want to be a buzzkill- it is still fun to speculate based on what you are seeing now on the models in concert with upper air features Probably the lone exception is hurricane modeling; it is different and much more granular bc of the large amount of metadata infused starting early on from the tropical wave stage 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 From Gemini (sounds like nice trend to the West):The 18z WeatherNext 2 run is complete. The model shifted slightly more aggressively for the weekend, increasing the likelihood of measurable snow for central North Carolina.Raleigh Update (Jan 30 – Feb 1)The 18z data shows a more defined moisture "tug" toward the coast. While the center of the low-pressure system is still offshore, the western edge of the precipitation shield now fully covers the Triangle.• Friday, Jan 30: Mostly cloudy during the day (High: 39°F). Snow showers are expected to begin Friday night (35% chance) as the temperature drops to 22°F.• Saturday, Jan 31: This is the primary window for accumulation. The model shows steady snow throughout the day (45% chance) with a much colder high of only 22°F.• Sunday, Feb 1: Light snow continues into the morning before clearing out. The low will bottom out at a frigid 16°F.East Coast Weekend Outlook• The "All-Snow" Setup: Because the 18z run keeps the Arctic air deeply entrenched, there is zero signal for rain or ice in Raleigh; this appears to be a 100% frozen event.• Accumulation Trend: The ensemble mean for Raleigh has ticked up. We are now looking at a solid 1–3 inch potential, with some "high-end" scenarios in the 18z run suggesting up to 5 inches if the coastal low slows down.• I-95 Corridor: The model remains "bullish" for the Northeast, showing heavy snow totals for DC, Philly, and NYC starting late Friday night. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 When yall get maps, please post the WeatherNext! Or Google or whatever it is lol @wncsnow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 10:1 ratio . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 I’ll take that. New set of downs. 1st and 10, approaching midfield. 3 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 52 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 18z Eps would of been even better but it had a few lows way out to see which skewed the mean... take those 3 out and it would of been widespread half foot means Can you post individual panels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, ADB83 said: 10:1 ratio . That looks really close to lunchtime run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Weathernext seems to be locked in. Just small deviations the past few days. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 That looks really close to lunchtime run.It’s very similar. I had to check it was actually the 18z and not the 12z. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: That looks really close to lunchtime run. Verbatim u can probably add 4-6" more to these totals with the high ratios coming. I may be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Weathernext seems to be locked in. Just small deviations the past few days. Are u buying that and the Euro more than what the GFS shows? I know its still early but I know its a good thing if you are optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: Verbatim u can probably add 4-6" more to these totals with the high ratios coming. I may be wrong. Looks temps in the upper teens for most. I was figuring 18:1? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Looks temps in the upper teens for most. I was figuring 18:1? Ratio would be super high across the region with this for sure. Pulled fro Goggle: Key Snow-to-Liquid Ratios by Temperature: 30°F–32°F: 5:1 to 10:1 (Heavy, wet, slushy snow). 20°F–28°F: 10:1 to 15:1 (Moderate/fluffy snow). 10°F–19°F: 15:1 to 20:1+ (Light, dry, fluffy snow). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 15:1 vs 10:1 …… just take what it shows and multiply times 1.5. TW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 15 minutes ago, ADB83 said: 10:1 ratio . 6 hours ago, wncsnow said: For ease of comparison sake 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 13 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’ll take that. New set of downs. 1st and 10, approaching midfield. Hope we can score at least a field goal! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, Snowncanes said: For ease of comparison sake Only change really was a tad less in extreme SW-NC and extreme western SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Hope we can score at least a field goal! Field goals don’t win ball games. 6-9” would definitely be a TD tho. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 7 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: 15:1 vs 10:1 …… just take what it shows and multiply times 1.5. TW So basically 6-12" from Murphy to Manteo! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Field goals don’t win ball games. 6-9” would definitely be a TD tho. As long as we don't have to go for a hailmary on 4th and 15 with 10 seconds to go! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 LMFAO. I'm gonna start the jumping off the cliff thread. Anyone remember what just happened? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrew29649 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Field goals don’t win ball games. 6-9” would definitely be a TD tho. The ratios being high give us all some life. 0.40-0.60 QPF at 15:1 would be nice! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, andrew29649 said: The ratios being high give us all some life. 0.40-0.60 QPF at 15:1 would be nice! Would need a good DP to start to have everything make it down and not waste any. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, suzook said: Lmfao. Suckers. I'm gonna start the jumping off the cliff thread. Lucy whet her appetite and is hungry for more victims 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 From Gemini (sounds like nice trend to the West):The 18z WeatherNext 2 run is complete. The model shifted slightly more aggressively for the weekend, increasing the likelihood of measurable snow for central North Carolina.Raleigh Update (Jan 30 – Feb 1)The 18z data shows a more defined moisture "tug" toward the coast. While the center of the low-pressure system is still offshore, the western edge of the precipitation shield now fully covers the Triangle.• Friday, Jan 30: Mostly cloudy during the day (High: 39°F). Snow showers are expected to begin Friday night (35% chance) as the temperature drops to 22°F.• Saturday, Jan 31: This is the primary window for accumulation. The model shows steady snow throughout the day (45% chance) with a much colder high of only 22°F.• Sunday, Feb 1: Light snow continues into the morning before clearing out. The low will bottom out at a frigid 16°F.East Coast Weekend Outlook• The "All-Snow" Setup: Because the 18z run keeps the Arctic air deeply entrenched, there is zero signal for rain or ice in Raleigh; this appears to be a 100% frozen event.• Accumulation Trend: The ensemble mean for Raleigh has ticked up. We are now looking at a solid 1–3 inch potential, with some "high-end" scenarios in the 18z run suggesting up to 5 inches if the coastal low slows down.• I-95 Corridor: The model remains "bullish" for the Northeast, showing heavy snow totals for DC, Philly, and NYC starting late Friday night.Hey just an outsider (Philly) visiting,, just curious, I see you state it is bullish for DC-Boston but the snow map posted seemed generally light. Hopefully we all cash in. I don’t know anything about this new model heh. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Hey just an outsider (Philly) visiting,, just curious, I see you state it is bullish for DC-Boston but the snow map posted seemed generally light. Hopefully we all cash in. I don’t know anything about this new model heh. Don't be stealing our snow!! We are hungry down here. Just kidding. This looks to be a nice east coast storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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