The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[BornAgain13]

18z Eps would of been even better but it had a few lows way out to see which skewed the mean... take those 3 out and it would of been widespread half foot means

[wncsnow]

Weathernext or bust for me. It was showing this threat before the Euro had a clue. New run coming in 30 minutes

[Grayman]

50 minutes ago, Omen said:

Nice uptick on the EPS for those of us in Virginia. 

We hate Virgina? Snow hogs Virginia is not in the southeast.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

WeatherNext is the Alpha model

[DTP]

45 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

Can someone make both the positive and negative case about Euro performance at this range vs. last week's storm? Not just a "we never get snow" vs "it has to work once" argument, but an actual data based assessment?

I made several posts about this in the disco thread for the last storm regarding all of the models (not just the Euro), and why they have predictive difficulty more than 3 days out....I have created multiple complex models in finance involving delta hedging equity and futures options for prime dealers, so I have a pretty good handle on what I am looking at....my posts go into the "whys" of what you are asking.....

Short answer/cliffs if you don't feel like searching- they aren't designed to nail down specifics this far out, just probabilities....that being said, I don't want to be a buzzkill- it is still fun to speculate based on what you are seeing now on the models in concert with upper air features 

Probably the lone exception is hurricane modeling; it is different and much more granular bc of the large amount of metadata infused starting early on from the tropical wave stage

[AirNelson39]

From Gemini (sounds like nice trend to the West):

The 18z WeatherNext 2 run is complete. The model shifted slightly more aggressively for the weekend, increasing the likelihood of measurable snow for central North Carolina.

Raleigh Update (Jan 30 – Feb 1)
The 18z data shows a more defined moisture "tug" toward the coast. While the center of the low-pressure system is still offshore, the western edge of the precipitation shield now fully covers the Triangle.

• Friday, Jan 30: Mostly cloudy during the day (High: 39°F). Snow showers are expected to begin Friday night (35% chance) as the temperature drops to 22°F.
• Saturday, Jan 31: This is the primary window for accumulation. The model shows steady snow throughout the day (45% chance) with a much colder high of only 22°F.
• Sunday, Feb 1: Light snow continues into the morning before clearing out. The low will bottom out at a frigid 16°F.

East Coast Weekend Outlook
• The "All-Snow" Setup: Because the 18z run keeps the Arctic air deeply entrenched, there is zero signal for rain or ice in Raleigh; this appears to be a 100% frozen event.
• Accumulation Trend: The ensemble mean for Raleigh has ticked up. We are now looking at a solid 1–3 inch potential, with some "high-end" scenarios in the 18z run suggesting up to 5 inches if the coastal low slows down.
• I-95 Corridor: The model remains "bullish" for the Northeast, showing heavy snow totals for DC, Philly, and NYC starting late Friday night.

[BornAgain13]

When yall get maps, please post the WeatherNext! Or Google or whatever it is lol

@wncsnow

[ADB83]

10:1 ratio


.

[BooneWX]

I’ll take that. New set of downs. 1st and 10, approaching midfield.

[WXNewton]

52 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z Eps would of been even better but it had a few lows way out to see which skewed the mean... take those 3 out and it would of been widespread half foot means

Can you post individual panels?

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

10:1 ratio


.

That looks really close to lunchtime run.

[wncsnow]

Weathernext seems to be locked in. Just small deviations the past few days. 

[ADB83]

That looks really close to lunchtime run.

It’s very similar. I had to check it was actually the 18z and not the 12z.


.

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

That looks really close to lunchtime run.

Verbatim u can probably add 4-6" more to these totals with the high ratios coming. I may be wrong. 

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Weathernext seems to be locked in. Just small deviations the past few days. 

Are u buying that and the Euro more than what the GFS shows? I know its still early but I know its a good thing if you are optimistic 

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Verbatim u can probably add 4-6" more to these totals with the high ratios coming. I may be wrong. 

Looks temps in the upper teens for most. I was figuring 18:1?

[strongwxnc]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Looks temps in the upper teens for most. I was figuring 18:1?

Ratio would be super high across the region with this for sure. 

Pulled fro Goggle:

Key Snow-to-Liquid Ratios by Temperature:

• 30°F–32°F: 5:1 to 10:1 (Heavy, wet, slushy snow).
• 20°F–28°F: 10:1 to 15:1 (Moderate/fluffy snow).
• 10°F–19°F: 15:1 to 20:1+ (Light, dry, fluffy snow).

 

[tarheelwx]

15:1 vs 10:1 …… just take what it shows and multiply times 1.5.  
TW

[Snowncanes]

15 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

10:1 ratio


.

 

6 hours ago, wncsnow said:

For ease of comparison sake

[WXNewton]

13 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’ll take that. New set of downs. 1st and 10, approaching midfield.

Hope we can score at least a field goal! 

[WXNewton]

3 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

 

For ease of comparison sake

Only change really was a tad less in extreme SW-NC and extreme western SC

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Hope we can score at least a field goal! 

Field goals don’t win ball games. 6-9” would definitely be a TD tho.

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

15:1 vs 10:1 …… just take what it shows and multiply times 1.5.  
TW

So basically 6-12" from Murphy to Manteo!

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Field goals don’t win ball games. 6-9” would definitely be a TD tho.

As long as we don't have to go for a hailmary on 4th and 15 with 10 seconds to go!

[suzook]

LMFAO. I'm gonna start the jumping off the cliff thread. Anyone remember what just happened?

[andrew29649]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Field goals don’t win ball games. 6-9” would definitely be a TD tho.

The ratios being high give us all some life. 0.40-0.60 QPF at 15:1 would be nice! 

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, andrew29649 said:

The ratios being high give us all some life. 0.40-0.60 QPF at 15:1 would be nice! 

Would need a good DP to start to have everything make it down and not waste any.

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, suzook said:

Lmfao. Suckers. I'm gonna start the jumping off the cliff thread. 

Lucy whet her appetite and is hungry for more victims

[Heisy]

From Gemini (sounds like nice trend to the West):

The 18z WeatherNext 2 run is complete. The model shifted slightly more aggressively for the weekend, increasing the likelihood of measurable snow for central North Carolina.

Raleigh Update (Jan 30 – Feb 1)
The 18z data shows a more defined moisture "tug" toward the coast. While the center of the low-pressure system is still offshore, the western edge of the precipitation shield now fully covers the Triangle.

• Friday, Jan 30: Mostly cloudy during the day (High: 39°F). Snow showers are expected to begin Friday night (35% chance) as the temperature drops to 22°F.
• Saturday, Jan 31: This is the primary window for accumulation. The model shows steady snow throughout the day (45% chance) with a much colder high of only 22°F.
• Sunday, Feb 1: Light snow continues into the morning before clearing out. The low will bottom out at a frigid 16°F.

East Coast Weekend Outlook
• The "All-Snow" Setup: Because the 18z run keeps the Arctic air deeply entrenched, there is zero signal for rain or ice in Raleigh; this appears to be a 100% frozen event.
• Accumulation Trend: The ensemble mean for Raleigh has ticked up. We are now looking at a solid 1–3 inch potential, with some "high-end" scenarios in the 18z run suggesting up to 5 inches if the coastal low slows down.
• I-95 Corridor: The model remains "bullish" for the Northeast, showing heavy snow totals for DC, Philly, and NYC starting late Friday night.

Hey just an outsider (Philly) visiting,, just curious, I see you state it is bullish for DC-Boston but the snow map posted seemed generally light. Hopefully we all cash in. I don’t know anything about this new model heh.

[suzook]

5 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hey just an outsider (Philly) visiting,, just curious, I see you state it is bullish for DC-Boston but the snow map posted seemed generally light. Hopefully we all cash in. I don’t know anything about this new model heh.

Don't be stealing our snow!! We are hungry down here. Just kidding. This looks to be a nice east coast storm