February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: 150K Salary Needed to Post

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Still moderate snow at 15z.  This is a good ass run

Could it be...FOLKSY, even??  Of course, 200 hours out, whatever, but I am just glad to see a semi-consistent possibility across all model guidance right now.  Euro also looked good at 12Z for the most part.

[stormtracker]

Just now, bncho said:

10:1 is very similar to this btw

I see what you did there.  We'd all take that right about now.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Could it be...FOLKSY, even??  Of course, 200 hours out, whatever, but I am just glad to see a semi-consistent possibility across all model guidance right now.  Euro also looked good at 12Z for the most part.

Nah, not FOLKS, but it's SECS'y

[stormtracker]

Only 32 more runs to go

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Nah, not FOLKS, but it's SECS'y

Very much so, agreed!  Would take that in a minute!

[CAPE]

Just what we needed. NS vortex somewhat weaker and  more in the 50-50 low position instead of southward killing our shortwave

[CAPE]

Spacing!!

[NorthArlington101]

Still going at 18z Sat.  [mention=9980]NorthArlington101[/mention], you know what to do

Grocery shopping. @bncho saved me

[GreyHat]

GFS 18z 500mb, 700mb, 850 mb are cold the 2m temps are marginal. QPF is light.

 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

GFS 18z 500mb, 700mb, 850 mb are cold the 2m temps are marginal. QPF is light.

 

Yeah, 6 to 10 is light.

@AlexD1990, come get your boy.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

GFS 18z 500mb, 700mb, 850 mb are cold the 2m temps are marginal. QPF is light.

 

No but thanks for trying 

 

[Heisy]

Just pointing this out. Been following both Ai models for days now. They’ve been locked in to this general progression for multiple runs now. Theres some minor differences each run of course, but two separate models 190+ hours out, remarkable similarities. Regardless of details, gotta wonder if the OPs will eventually end up with this look.

[GreyHat]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, 6 to 10 is light.

@AlexD1990, come get your boy.

Funny man,  my bust the qpf north is light, but temps still marginal at 2m. Consider you had opened a thread for a crap system that didn't perform. 

This is far out and snow maps mean nothing. But whatever floats you and the others boats.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

Funny man,  my bust the qpf north is light, but temps still marginal at 2m. Consider you had opened a thread for a crap system that didn't perform. 

This is far out and snow maps mean nothing. But whatever floats you and the others boats.

You said .70 was light.  We are talking about a model, not what you think will happen.

Our boats are floating well.  Because we know that .7 of QPF isn't "light".  Consider THAT.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, GreyHat said:

Funny man,  my bust the qpf north is light, but temps still marginal at 2m. Consider you had opened a thread for a crap system that didn't perform. 

This is far out and snow maps mean nothing. But whatever floats you and the others boats.

2m temps for the storm are like 27-31 at the start of the event and 30-34 at the end, colder NW, warmer SE. And your original statement was that 0.5-0.8” QPF, which is a substantial amount.

Obviously I’m over analyzing now, but look at the whole storm before making a statement like that.

[mitchnick]

GfsAI has the storm but a touch warmer than op. Hard to tell on the TT rudimentary maps.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

GgsAI has the storm but a touch warmer than op. Hard to tell on the TT rudimentary maps.

It'll have a inch of QPF and GreyHat will say it's paltry.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Funny man,  my bust the qpf north is light, but temps still marginal at 2m. Consider you had opened a thread for a crap system that didn't perform. 

This is far out and snow maps mean nothing. But whatever floats you and the others boats.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

GgsAI has the storm but a touch warmer than op. Hard to tell on the TT rudimentary maps.

Looks like a rainer

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You said .70 was light.  We are talking about a model, not what you think will happen.

Our boats are floating well.  Because we know that .7 of QPF isn't "light".  Consider THAT.

Did we find another Rev War Re-enactor???  What the Hessian is going on??? 

[bncho]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Did we find another Rev War Re-enactor???  What the Hessian is going on??? 

Temu Alexander Hamilton

[Heisy]

No but thanks for trying 

 

NW Va beat down on the 18z euro Ai. That’s 10:1 too, wow

[stormtracker]

17 minutes ago, bncho said:

Temu Alexander Hamilton

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

NW Va beat down on the 18z euro Ai. That’s 10:1 too, wow

Love it, but getting annoyed with that line through DC

[Heisy]

That would be painful, euro Ai and gfs Ai delay the wave so much we lose 50/50 influence. It almost cuts it off from the flow

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

NW Va beat down on the 18z euro Ai. That’s 10:1 too, wow

Im trying to see my house behind that 19.8

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

That would be painful, euro Ai and gfs Ai delay the wave so much we lose 50/50 influence. It almost cuts it off from the flow

Wait, you just said the snow maps were good?  Why is this painful?  Thermals?

[anotherman]

Wait, you just said the snow maps were good?  Why is this painful?  Thermals?

He’s in Philly.

[stormtracker]

Just now, anotherman said:

He’s in Philly.

Ahhh, why do I keep forgetting that.   Can we trade him for GreyHat?

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Wait, you just said the snow maps were good?  Why is this painful?  Thermals?

It’s a slop storm verbatim. Probably around 5-8:1 ratios. Temps are around 35-38 in the metros.