January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage OBS Thread!

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Bro your posts are literal dog shit. 

I'm willing to back off from the ledge if someone can offer facts that say things will play out differently in the 95 corridor.

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

Gainesville: Interesting that the cul-de-sac asphalt surface is now completely white, but grassy surfaces remain bare.  Pretty much indiciative of how cold the road surface is.  No sun angle to worry about at night. Normally my observation has been that grassy surfaces whiten up first while the roads stay wet for a time before accumulation sets in. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Forget the NAM. It’s 50 miles off everything else even the other cams. But I Caught something on the RRFS. 
 

Verbatim it’s meh with 4-5” across the area. But it has an intense band of precip from 16-19z across the area as sleet but it’s super close.  It’s only +1 at about 750 mb. Every other layer is fine. This is 700 which is the closest layer I can get represented but it’s close to the warmest layer. If it’s 1* colder across this area from 16-19z it would be 10” instead of 4” 

This trend has been on the last 2 runs and now it’s super close to a better result  

How easy would you say it is to bust even 0.5*C cold in the upper levels for this type of setup?

[triniiphone]

Very fine flakes in falls church. Already coating surfaces. 

[baltosquid]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Forget the NAM. It’s 50 miles off everything else even the other cams. But I Caught something on the RRFS. 
 

Verbatim it’s meh with 4-5” across the area. But it has an intense band of precip from 16-19z across the area as sleet but it’s super close.  It’s only +1 at about 750 mb. Every other layer is fine. This is 700 which is the closest layer I can get represented but it’s close to the warmest layer. If it’s 1* colder across this area from 16-19z it would be 10” instead of 4” 

This trend has been on the last 2 runs and now it’s super close to a better result  

Modeled I-95 death band which will customarily relocate to include mt psu (and exclude others)... hoping it comes to fruition in a wider fashion though!

[Scraff]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

I'm willing to back off from the ledge if someone can offer facts that say things will play out differently in the 95 corridor.

Just started raining here. Hope that helps. 

[Berlin1926]

1 minute ago, Disc said:

Raging sleet storm now. Down to 8.8F. This was heading into work. Fingers crossed we don't flop to ZR, or getting home might be an issue in the morning. 

8F and sleet.  That's remarkable.  

[wxmeddler]

Good thump up above helped break through the dry layer:

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Imagine bitching on this board cause Danville flipped to sleet an hour early instead of enjoying the 15 degree powder we’re about to get.  Couldn’t be me.

This.  I'm lit and just happy to have something going on.   It's gonna snow for a while and hopefully we get some good rates

[clskinsfan]

On VA road Cams. It is snow all the way down 81 as far as I cared to look. And it will take A LOT longer to scour out the cold up here. Stay up and watch it stack up. Or go to bed and wake up buried. We are all gonna get hammered. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I'm willing to back off from the ledge if someone can offer facts that say things will play out differently in the 95 corridor.

HRRR, Euro, RGEM, etc.

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

you're so bipolar it's annoying. you weenie the people who are negative and then suddenly you're negative when it's barely even started up here.

Big difference between dealing with people being contrarian in long range and actual eyewitness accounts showing unfavorable trends at game time.

[Wxtrix]

16/-6 and nothing falling

[Jebman]

Outright HEAVY sleet and heavy freezing rain at 23 degrees.

This is BAD.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, Jebman said:

Outright HEAVY sleet and heavy freezing rain at 23 degrees.

This is BAD.

You think it'll be 2021 bad down there?

[LeesburgWx]

Still waiting for first flakes here west of Leesburg. Should be anytime now

[balltermen]

3z HRRR is a 14z flip for DCA. seems reasonable. 

[Ji]

Still waiting for first flakes here west of Leesburg. Should be anytime now

You forget about the bubble?

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Ji said:

You forget about the bubble?

You’re right. First flakes will be at 1am here

[balltermen]

Just now, Ji said:

You forget about the bubble?

you're going to get a foot.  that's my forecast for Leesburg

[Jebman]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You think it'll be 2021 bad down there?

Probably not THAT bad, but it is so damn COLD that every drop of supercooled rain WILL FREEZE, on contact.

[baltosquid]

FWIW the RRFS looks pretty accurate with the sleet line looking at correlation coefficients vs its model output at 00z for 11pm. DC 5.4 and Baltimore 7.8 internal ratios. That's lower for DC from 18z but higher for Baltimore, and there are actually some higher totals south of DC so I think it just got unlucky with banding on this particular run. Was pretty much better everywhere else except that dry slot. No idea how it plays out but it's way too early to say the changeover is gonna swallow us by 8am or anything. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, baltosquid said:

No idea how it plays out but it's way too early to say the changeover is gonna swallow us by 8am or anything. 

I mean the trends from Southern VA aren't encouraging.

[TowsonWeather]

Watching the virga/radar hole that now occupies an apparently permanent snow-repelling rip in the space-time continuum in the skies above Baltimore and feeling sorry for myself.

One day, perhaps far into the future, my children's children's children will be mind-typing "Ooh, Baltimore's really getting the goods early this storm!" into their virtual ether communicators, and the story of their ancestors and The Great Balmer Snow Drought will be a fuzzy and distant memory that has faded into legend.

I envy those young snow lovers. I shall picture them laughing and frolicking and bounding through the drifts into their anti-grav plasma boots as I sob quietly into my pillow tonight until the unbearable pain finally, mercifully whisks me away to a blissful nothingness.

[konksw]

8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I'm willing to back off from the ledge if someone can offer facts that say things will play out differently in the 95 corridor.

You are just completely ignoring the NWS forecast?

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Outright HEAVY sleet and heavy freezing rain at 23 degrees.

This is BAD.

Stay safe

[balltermen]

i like 8-10" for Washington DC.  DCA, I don't know because of how low they are sometimes.   7.1". 

[KAOS]

5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Outright HEAVY sleet and heavy freezing rain at 23 degrees.

This is BAD.

Thinking this seems like a jeb nightmare. How do you even shovel heavy freezing rain?

[baldereagle]

8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I'm willing to back off from the ledge if someone can offer facts that say things will play out differently in the 95 corridor.

Your avatar befits you.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Just now, konksw said:

You are just completely ignoring the NWS forecast?

They've been wrong before. See also February 2024.