Jan 24-26 Weekend Snow and Sleetfest Model Thread Part Tres

[Solution Man]

We like, smokin at 42

[stormtracker]

Looks like a hold to me..maybe an ass hair warmer up top

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Looks like a hold to me..maybe an ass hair warmer up top

Was gonna say you could argue a sliiiightly faster flip. But all in all you have to call it a hold. 

[Ji]

Looks like a hold to me..maybe an ass hair warmer up top

I think we are good with holds for the fun model solutions

[NorthArlington101]

[stormtracker]

[Solution Man]

Still smokin at 45 lose thermal at 51 in DC

[bncho]

GFS = stubborn bastard

 

[stormtracker]

Looks like maybe some ass end snow, but not a lot.  Check those soundings

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like a hold to me..maybe an ass hair warmer up top

Does the flip hold (in the DC area at least) until at least 18Z still?  That's my goal, to at least hold all or mostly snow until then to maximize amounts in the overnight and Sunday morning period before the sleet bomb.

[SnowGolfBro]

Any backside love on the GFS?

[Ji]

GFS = stubborn bastard

I don’t think it will change much because maybe it dosent have the computing abilities to see deeper than what it’s seeing?

[stormtracker]

When the GFS caves or it just verifies wrong, we're not gonna learn our lesson, our we?

[mitchnick]

Can't recall the Gfs being this persistent for this long and being horribly wrong. It was equally persistent in 1/16 and did well. Let's hope. 

[Ji]

Any backside love on the GFS?

@ravensrule

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Looks like maybe some ass end snow, but not a lot.  Check those soundings

Maybe a flip back to snow, Lp off Delmarva

[bncho]

The GFS is 14" of snow + sleet for DC.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS

[CAPE]

HH GFS is the same outside of a bit of noise between runs. Actually slightly colder here as the coastal low makes its closest pass.

[stormtracker]

So GFS has a foot and some change (including sleet) for DC.  I'd take

[mitchnick]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS

That .02" worth of sleet over mby has been on the prior 2 runs, I believe, as well. Consistency is crazy.

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So GFS has a foot and some change (including sleet) for DC.  I'd take

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So GFS has a foot and some change (including sleet) for DC.  I'd take

A foot plus and very little or no ZR seems like the ceiling for us low landers. 

[bncho]

HRRR likes the idea the possibility of some thundersnow (and then thundersleet) right before the changeover.

[WVclimo]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS = stubborn bastard

 

I think that's now the 8th run in a row of the GFS showing 18"+ (Kuchera) for the eastern panhandle of WV

[bncho]

AI GFS shift south

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

 

 

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

AI GFS shift south

Let’s see it

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 12K NAM and GFS showing the synoptic differences.  Hope GFS is correct.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Let’s see it

Slight shift south and it's slightly juicier