January 24-26: Miracle or Mirage Thread 2

[jayyy]

Seems like most seem to have this general idea.

It’s the correct forecast at this juncture honestly

[baltosquid]

Okay… confluence holding up pretty well for us thru 39. Baja still cutoff at 561. But still looks like there’s plenty of room to phase.

[WEATHER53]

18 minutes ago, BigCountry said:

Yep, that was it. Thank you. I was freaking out when I saw 2-3. Haha

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
 

Rescind your LOL imposed on those  who actually knew 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

Okay… confluence holding up pretty well for us thru 39. Baja still cutoff at 561. But still looks like there’s plenty of room to phase.

Out here doing a break down on every 3 hr panel of the Nam lol love it 

[baltosquid]

Also, at the surface, the high in the Midwest has come south a bit this run. 

[Jebman]

19 minutes ago, das said:

It's like bb's falling from the sky.  And walking/driving in it is more like walking in sand than anything else.  It's pretty fascinating.  Also, it is a lightening-fast sledding surface.

Once it becomes glacified, try sledding it.

In Jan or Feb 1994 I was still in Dale City. We got 3 inches of pure sleet. Once it became a glacier, sledding was pure genocide. I was foolish enough to try sledding down a pretty steep hill on one of those circular plastic sleds. Pure ice substrate. Well, it was fast as hell. I won't ever do that again. Banged up pretty good. Shot down the hill at breakneck velocity jumped a curb onto the ice packed street lucky no cars on it at the time, simply shot down that street. Lots of onlookers watched amazed I didnt kill myself. Glacierized sleetpack is extremely fast. Sled it with EXTREME caution. Don't get Jebbed.

[baltosquid]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Out here doing a break down on every 3 hr panel of the Nam lol love it 

I need this opening gig man, could launch my career

[jayyy]

Out here doing a break down on every 3 hr panel of the Nam lol love it 

Initial hunch is it’ll be a bit colder but drier. Let’s see

[baltosquid]

Just now, jayyy said:

Initial hunch is it’ll be a bit colder but drier. Let’s see

This is kinda what I think, phase is really taking its time and could affect the WAA. Also the NAM is taking its time…

[psuhoffman]

The confluence over top of us is very important...in about 48 hours...not 12 or 24 hours...as whatever it is then will be gone by the time the storm is here...at those time ranges what is happening to our NW is more important actually than super tiny minor differences in the height fields over top of us way ahead of the storm.  

[BigCountry]

Rescind your LOL imposed on those  who actually knew 

LOL rescinded. Thank you to the poster that actually assisted.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[WEATHER53]

11 minutes ago, das said:

It's like bb's falling from the sky.  And walking/driving in it is more like walking in sand than anything else.  It's pretty fascinating.  Also, it is a lightening-fast sledding surface.

The way I remember the very few real cold sleeters is that at around 20F it’s so frozen that it kinda shatters on impact rather than being like a bb pellet like when it’s 30F.

Anyone else can remember ?

 

[stormtracker]

Closing in on us at 51...I dunno seems a lil wetter over a wider area out west vs 12z?

[Buddy1987]

Hell at this rate the NAM will have the baja energy go south of Acapulco lol

[psuhoffman]

on approach the high is a little south in the midwest, SLIGHTLY less confluence ahead but so minor I don't think that matters much, slightly flatter flow out west (good) but better organized system (also good IMO because we might get a thumpier thump before a flip). 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Closing in on us at 51...I dunno seems a lil wetter over a wider area out west vs 12z?

 Wetter is good as long as it's colder

[jayyy]

This is kinda what I think, phase is really taking its time and could affect the WAA. Also the NAM is taking its time…

Takes time to load a good NAMing

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Takes time to load a good NAMing

Aren’t good NAMing’s done at game time?

[Solution Man]

Snow around 7pm Saturday
 

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Closing in on us at 51...I dunno seems a lil wetter over a wider area out west vs 12z?

Need bnacho to chime in for wetter or drier.  

 

I just want colder vs warmer or souther vs norther

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Closing in on us at 51...I dunno seems a lil wetter over a wider area out west vs 12z?

at 51 the whole flow is flatter out west also, this is less amped so far (NAM can go nuts in a hurry so not reading into what happens later yet), the initial WAA is directed in a better trajectory also.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Need bnacho to chime in for wetter or drier.  

 

I just want colder vs warmer or souther vs norther

its snourther 

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

at 51 the whole flow is flatter out west also, this is less amped so far (NAM can go nuts in a hurry so not reading into what happens later yet), the initial WAA is directed in a better trajectory also.  

It's definitely different on the sfc vs 12z so far...seems flatter

[jayyy]

It's definitely different on the sfc vs 12z so far...seems flatter

May not be a bad thing. Let’s see

[stormtracker]

Incoming?

[psuhoffman]

better at 51 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's definitely different on the sfc vs 12z so far...seems flatter

oh it is...you can really see it on the h5 trend gif I just posted 

[stormtracker]

Would be hilarious if the NAM went toward the GFS.  If there ever was a time we wanted the GFS to be right...

[Solution Man]

Liking this run

[stormtracker]

Getting it good at 9z