January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[21chuck]

6 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Does anyone know what source Apple Weather uses?

They have been adamant calling for 18- 22 inches of snow in the Paoli Malvern area almost all week. They have not backed down even with the Mesoscale computer runs.

I don't know but I hate how 80% of the population uses apple weather as their primary source for weather forecasting. 

[Kevin Reilly]

15 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Does anyone know what source Apple Weather uses?

They have been adamant calling for 18- 22 inches of snow in the Paoli Malvern area almost all week. They have not backed down even with the Mesoscale computer runs.

Their app algorithm must calculate 1-2” of sleet as 10” 

[Kevin Reilly]

37 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM is several hours later then NAM with the change to sleet which is significant

 

I can hear Elliott Abrams in my ears, “should the delay in the changeover occur we can easily pick up a foot of snow.” 

[Kevin Reilly]

20 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Forgot about that.  Profile says he hasn't visited since 2015, but could still lurk.  Maybe he forgot his password.

Yea totally remembered commenting with Glen think possibly during the 13” storm back in 2014. 

[The Iceman]

Am I foolish for not starting my generator today? I’m refusing to believe freezing rain is going to be that serious of an issue this far N… am I being obtuse? 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, The Iceman said:

Am I foolish for not starting my generator today? I’m refusing to believe freezing rain is going to be that serious of an issue this far N… am I being obtuse? 

Funny you said that I’m about to go out now and give the generator a start and run for 10 minutes and check my gas supply. 

[BBasile]

4 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Am I foolish for not starting my generator today? I’m refusing to believe freezing rain is going to be that serious of an issue this far N… am I being obtuse? 

Well, who would know better than The Iceman?  

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Prairie Dog said:

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZP8fV4KYq/.        Glenn.  Great met. Actually admitted on NBC10 he was wrong on several occasions when he was there

Glenn hugging the icon model. We'll that certainly is a plot twist

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Glenn hugging the icon model. We'll that certainly is a plot twist

You cannot discount anything at this point. 

[Duca892]

Mike Masco (from PIX11) is saying models have slowed the progression of mixing? Outside the NAM of course.

[jrodd321]

Looks like Holly is sticking with their last call as their final map the time stamp changed. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, jrodd321 said:

Looks like Holly is sticking with their last call as their final map the time stamp changed. 

I don't think that is a "final map".  It would be their latest version based on the current guidance and input from the latest model runs that they use to do the snow forecasts.  They may revise later tonight and tomorrow depending on when any changeover happens.

[jrodd321]

Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

I don't think that is a "final map".  It would be their latest version based on the current guidance and input from the latest model runs that they use to do the snow forecasts.  They may revise later tonight and tomorrow depending on when any changeover happens.

Well that’s what I meant meaning the storms starting tonight for most.

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, jrodd321 said:

Well that’s what I meant meaning the storms starting tonight for most.

They may do an update later tonight at say 8 pm-ish.    Mike posted earlier in this thread about how much of a mess it was to try to communicate to the public about what may happen and I agree.  I posted earlier about anything "looking like" a "Miller B" is always a PITA to try to nail down.  And we all have experienced the "dry slots" that happen with that type of storm just before any coastal starts revving up.

[Duca892]

Thread is dead lmfao 

[Violentweatherfan]

NFL championship weekend 

[Chadzachadam]

I agree with some folks on the MA forum re: the NAM—I buy the warm nose but I don’t buy the super dry/slow start to the storm. 5 or 6” is the absolute worst case scenario imo. Maybe irrelevant but much of the Midwest seems to be hitting the top end of their snow predictions so far. If we wrung 4” of snow out of last Sunday surely we can double that in a much colder, much wetter, and longer-duration storm

[bigtenfan]

I was going to ask how the storm is performing to our south and west so far.

Where is the changeover line compared to where it was forecasted to be?

[The Iceman]

Based on nothing but the vibe of the winter and the air mass overhead, I think this performs better than expected. I’m sticking with my original first call. But I won’t be surprised if totals are on the higher end of this.

3-6” - shore points extreme snj

6-12” - 95/195 corridor 

10-16” N and W of 95 with lollipops of 20” for whoever stays all snow.

 

i don’t think anyone sees significant freezing rain either.

[Birds~69]

14 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Thread is dead lmfao 

I think most of us are sick of speculating. Almost time to real time watch radar and observations from surrounding areas near and afar. Overall, let's go!

15F/DP -2

[Birds~69]

Just now, The Iceman said:

Based on nothing but the vibe of the winter and the air mass overhead, I think this performs better than expected. I’m sticking with my original first call. But I won’t be surprised if totals are on the higher end of this.

3-6” - shore points extreme snj

6-12” - 95/195 corridor 

8-14” N and W of 95 with lollipops of 20” for whoever stays all snow.

 

i don’t think anyone sees significant freezing rain either.

Seems logical. Start and end times?

*Going w/11"-13" for my area. The thump better THUMP though...

[Hurricane Agnes]

17 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Thread is dead lmfao 

We're at nowcasting time (vs wishcasting) and will soon be doing obs.  If this were a classic "Miller A" or a clipper, it would be easier to model.  It's be more of a PITA because it starts at night.

[Chadzachadam]

7 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

I was going to ask how the storm is performing to our south and west so far.

Where is the changeover line compared to where it was forecasted to be?

From what I can gather, snow/sleet line is south of what most models had so far. Some unexpected dry slotting in OK/AR might have them bust low. KS and MO likely to exceed expectations. Initial precip a little earlier than anticipated on the TN valley. So kind of a mixed bag overall 

[The Iceman]

22 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Seems logical. Start and end times?

*Going w/11"-13" for my area. The thump better THUMP though...

Starts at or after 06z, change over starting at 18z s to n, storm ends between 00z and 06z Monday. I do think this will be fairly long duration. 

[hazwoper]

2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Starts at or after 06z, change over starting at 18z s to n, storm ends between 00z and 06z Sunday. I do think this will be fairly long duration. 

You mean ends 0Z to 06z Monday…..

[The Iceman]

11 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

You mean ends 0Z to 06z Monday…..

Yeah thanks 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

You mean ends 0Z to 06z Monday…..

I was about to say....shortest storm ever 

[PhilsFanDrew]

32 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I think most of us are sick of speculating. Almost time to real time watch radar and observations from surrounding areas near and afar. Overall, let's go!

15F/DP -2

Exactly this.  Storm is imminent no matter what happens.  It's nowcasting from here to completion.  

[BBasile]

Not a fan of this downgrade.  

[Duca892]

11 minutes ago, BBasile said:

Not a fan of this downgrade.  

Sadly not surprised and won’t be shocked if this gets scaled back yet again