January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[MacChump]

Just now, Chadzachadam said:

NW Philly about 6 miles from center city

Ok. You're crazy. 

[Prairie Dog]

2 hours ago, Violentweatherfan said:

That was really good thank you

QUITE  welcome!

[MacChump]

But I hope you're right lol

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CMC much colder. Big thumper

 

Umm cmc backed off though southern sections nodding to Nam 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Umm cmc backed off though southern sections nodding to Nam 

Initial thump colder and heavier precip

[Kevin Reilly]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Initial thump colder and heavier precip

At this point bring whatever we can get!  Keep the Frz rain and power outages outta here we do not need that with the cold coming. 

[Albedoman]

2 hours ago, LVblizzard said:

I’m literally 1/4 mile south of I-78. Good thing weather doesn’t follow interstate highways like that!

It follows S Mtn folks. Everything Southeast of hereford on rt 29  into east greenville will be the sleet line. Seen this so many many fricking times

[zenmsav6810]

21 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Here’s the real problem on the RRFS


.

thats never going to verify. 

[zenmsav6810]

59 minutes ago, Chadzachadam said:

Call me crazy but I’ll go with 10” for my backyard plus maybe an inch of sleet on top. Don’t think we get any significant freezing rain. We’ve had some solid performances with SW flow events recently, if the initial thump last 6-8 hours I think 10” is attainable

8" maybe. 10" is stretching it.

[Albedoman]

[LowerBucksWx]

3 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

thats never going to verify. 

Does that push plain rain up to Bristol PA?

[LVLion77]

It follows S Mtn folks. Everything Southeast of hereford on rt 29  into east greenville will be the sleet line. Seen this so many many fricking times

So many winter storms setup with lines at either South Mountain or Blue Mountain. However, this one worries me with the primary low heading so far north before the transfer to the coastal. Often that is a blue mountain sleet line.

[zenmsav6810]

1 minute ago, LowerBucksWx said:

Does that push plain rain up to Bristol PA?

im just looking at the 1.25"+ of zr in virginia. 

[Albedoman]

3 minutes ago, LVLion77 said:

So many winter storms setup with lines at either South Mountain or Blue Mountain. However, this one worries me with the primary low heading so far north before the transfer to the coastal. Often that is a blue mountain sleet line.

 I told the promary to slow down racing north to get a pitcher of beer to reload. LMAO 

 

[LVblizzard]

Euro just came in with an absolute nuke.

[zenmsav6810]

Is the NAM alone wise?

[RedSky]

Ukmet was better

[Mo Snow]

That would make a lot of great childhood memories verbatim

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, LVblizzard said:

Euro just came in with an absolute nuke.

Wow - didn’t expect that. Is this even more than the GFS.? 

[MacChump]

1 hour ago, Chadzachadam said:

Call me crazy but I’ll go with 10” for my backyard plus maybe an inch of sleet on top. Don’t think we get any significant freezing rain. We’ve had some solid performances with SW flow events recently, if the initial thump last 6-8 hours I think 10” is attainable

 

1 hour ago, MacChump said:

where are you?

 

1 hour ago, Chadzachadam said:

NW Philly about 6 miles from center city

 

1 hour ago, MacChump said:

Ok. You're crazy. 

 

3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Euro just came in with an absolute nuke.

you magnificent crazy bastard

[LVblizzard]

2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said:

Is the NAM alone wise?

NAM and RRFS are on their own with the extreme mid level warm air surge. None of the other globals or mesos agree with pushing sleet to the Poconos.

[coastal front]

Man almost every model has close to atleast 8” down here besides the nam. I’d take that and run. Let’s hope we keep beefing up that thump throughout tomorrow


.

[Akeem the African Dream]

its going to change to sleet up into the Lehigh valley 

[Duca892]

FWIW NAM kind of stopped its own bleeding. Still many areas don’t hit the low end of their projected NWS snows, but it as *slightly* better than 0z

[Duca892]

NWS already started scaling back the warnings. Down to 11-15in in Allentown from the initial 12-18in.

[MickeyTim6533]

GFS finally gave in a bit.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

GFS finally gave in a bit.

Finally. Mix up into the LV. 

 

[MickeyTim6533]

Scaling back of  snow totals has begun

[MickeyTim6533]

and the "blizzard" for next week is a whiff now

[Kevin Reilly]

Thinking right call is 8-10” for the weenie at heart, but reality is a floor of 6” and a ceiling of 10” 

 

I do think the Euro at 0z went higher because it calculated sleet this time instead of Frz rain at least I hope.