January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[Violentweatherfan]

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

And super cold so no stickage problems.

I don't think salt works (or not as well) under 20F (?, could be wrong) and have no clue how brine handles <20F temps...

I feel before the flip we’ll see some intense snowfall rates AKA “Death band” 

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

And super cold so no stickage problems.

I don't think salt works (or not as well) under 20F (?, could be wrong) and no have no clue how brine handles <20F temps...

I think they use the brine so that the frozen stuff won't stick to the road as much and it makes it easier to plow it away down to the asphalt.  The salt usually comes after the stuff is plowed.  I know they have some newer mixes of salt that can go lower but with the kind of cold they are talking about, back in the day you probably remember when they went on and put sand out. 

[zenmsav6810]

Just now, Violentweatherfan said:

I don’t think it’s possible for a surface low to “give or transfer energy”. Even the graphic that was posted mentions redevelopment. 

I would argue that its a philosophical point. I would almost argue its impossible not to transfer. All low pressures are created by thermal convection which is a transfer of heat from one object [land/water]/ air mass to another. Radiation and conduction also play a role I suppose. 

[anthonyweather]

NAM & GFS still showing blizzard warning criteria Sunday late afternoon and evening for the Lehigh Valley. 

 

"Criteria for Winter Storm Watches and Warnings
Blizzard:
1. Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater; and
2. Considerable falling and/or blowing snow reducing visibility frequently to less than 1/4 mile
for 3 or more hours."

[Hurricane Agnes]

5 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

I don’t think it’s possible for a surface low to “give or transfer energy”. Even the graphic that was posted mentions redevelopment. 

I don't think "transfer" is in terms of "energy" but in terms of movement.  I sometimes say "jumped to the coast" and restrengthened (mainly because when that process is happening, there is that "dry slot" that forms" and what ends up off the coast may be like a remnant of some kind and not a brand new low).

[zenmsav6810]

17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I'm quite amazed how down people are? Maybe not a all-timer but a damn nice storm. Most don't have to worry about work/driving, AFC/NFC championship games are on so basically you can drink/eat yourself silly and watch the snow fall and football all day long. Borderline heaven if you ask me... 

Im not sure if its all timer but its probably the best widespread MECS we've had in the last decade and a half. Notable with the potential follow-up threats

 

[Birds~69]

4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I think they use the brine so that the frozen stuff won't stick to the road as much and it makes it easier to plow it away down to the asphalt.  The salt usually comes after the stuff is plowed.  I know they have some newer mixes of salt that can go lower but with the kind of cold they are talking about, back in the day you probably remember when they went on and put sand out. 

Remember this...literally, what the hell did that achieve?

[anthonyweather]

11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

And super cold so no stickage problems.

I don't think salt works (or not as well) under 20F (?, could be wrong) and have no clue how brine handles <20F temps...

Gonna have hard pack all week.... this will be one of the worst cleanups in my memory. salt is virtually ineffective under 23F

[Newman]

Here are the top 15 snowiest days (i.e. 1-day period) in recorded history at KABE dating back to 1944. This storm could very easily break into the top 15, or even top 10. Most if not all snow falls between 2am to 10pm Sunday.

[Hurricane Agnes]

2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

NAM & GFS still showing blizzard warning criteria Sunday late afternoon and evening for the Lehigh Valley. 

 

"Criteria for Winter Storm Watches and Warnings
Blizzard:
1. Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater; and
2. Considerable falling and/or blowing snow reducing visibility frequently to less than 1/4 mile
for 3 or more hours."

I think the blizzard criteria is for sustained 35 mph or greater.

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

Remember this...literally, what the hell did that achieve?

Traction!  It was also the days of chains and spiked tires. 

[Birds~69]

Just now, zenmsav6810 said:

Im not sure if its all timer but its probably the best widespread MECS we've had in the last decade and a half. Notable with the potential follow-up threats

 

Exactly my point. It's a very solid storm on the weekend w/the NFC/AFC championship games being played. I couldn't have a more lazy day planned...

[ChescoWx]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pretty incredible 10 years ago 202 would be 'the line' and even 15 years ago it would have been i95. Climo keeps pushing that line farther and farther n and w.

Certainly not climo Steve!

[BBasile]

9 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

And super cold so no stickage problems.

I don't think salt works (or not as well) under 20F (?, could be wrong) and have no clue how brine handles <20F temps...

I think it's usefulness runs out at like -5F or so, but becomes less effective around 15F.  This is for sodium chloride.  Calcium chloride is much more effective. 

[ChescoWx]

NBM ticking down a bit with CAMS

[MGorse]

1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I think the blizzard criteria is for sustained 35 mph or greater.

Traction!  It was also the days of chains and spiked tires. 

It is sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.

[JTA66]

14 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

You probably haven't driven downtown when there was a bare coating of packed down rutted snow with a layer of ice and water on top on the major streets, where buses start spinning or slide around when turning a corner! Don't ask me why I would know the issues. 

The Lehigh Valley and Poconos have nothing on Manayunk, Roxborough and Conshohocken  

[BBasile]

I'll take any snow, but I want more than 9 inches.  Haven't touched that much snow in over 10 years now, Jan '16.  

[Violentweatherfan]

4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I don't think "transfer" is in terms of "energy" but in terms of movement.  I sometimes say "jumped to the coast" and restrengthened (mainly because when that process is happening, there is that "dry slot" that forms" and what ends up off the coast may be like a remnant of some kind and not a brand new low).

 

5 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I don't think "transfer" is in terms of "energy" but in terms of movement.  I sometimes say "jumped to the coast" and restrengthened (mainly because when that process is happening, there is that "dry slot" that forms" and what ends up off the coast may be like a remnant of some kind and not a brand new low).

I just kinda cringe when I hear it. Since I read that red tagers (okpowedah) post/ synopsis over at easteruswx

i think mgorse posted the last time I mentioned the terms are interchangeable a couple of years ago

[Duca892]

Just for me personally the hype has died down somewhat because at one point this looked like a pretty massive 14in+ storm for the Lehigh Valley North and now it is looking a smidge drier with most models working the sleet. Still going to be a storm that will be remembered as just the sheer amount of people affected for sure, and it isn't a nothing burger by any means. 8in+ with sleet is a pain in the butt for sure. 

[ChescoWx]

8 minutes ago, Newman said:

Here are the top 15 snowiest days (i.e. 1-day period) in recorded history at KABE dating back to 1944. This storm could very easily break into the top 15, or even top 10.

 

Hey Newman! Thanks - do you by chance have the top 25 total snowstorms for ABE? I need to go back and do that for Chester County stations. Below though are the Top 50 snowstorms in Chester County history since 1894. We will likely not break into the top 50 with this one! 

[Birds~69]

7 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

I think the blizzard criteria is for sustained 35 mph or greater.

Traction!  It was also the days of chains and spiked tires. 

Chains actually work pretty well. Never went through the hassle of studded/spiked tires...not sure if they are still legal in certain states? Probably mess up the road. 

[RedSky]

1st gut call in my area 10-11" snow and 1" sleet/graupel

High end SECS possibly hit the MECS mark

 

[Birds~69]

8 minutes ago, MGorse said:

It is sustained or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.

Define frequent? Seems vague...

*I understand you did not make the definition of a blizzard

[ChescoWx]

12z Euro still showing ZR where their is likely sleet but it looks to have slightly bumped up totals across NW Chesco from 6z but basically pretty steady!

[Newman]

1 minute ago, ChescoWx said:

Hey Newman! Thanks - do you by chance have the top 25 total snowstorms for ABE? I need to go back and do that for Chester County stations. Below though are the Top 50 snowstorms in Chester County history since 1894. We will likely not break into the top 50 with this one! 

Hey Paul, I don't have that list for you readily available, sorry! The NOAA climate sites that I use for this allow you to parse the data by day, but not necessarily by "storm". So I could find this for you through some manual interpretation and adding up snow from known storms by each day, but I can't do it right now haha.

[MGorse]

Just now, Birds~69 said:

Define frequent? Seems vague...

*I understand you did not make the definition of a blizzard

Meaning not occasional gusts. I think the idea is the gusts have to be occurring often and not just here and there. 

[ChescoWx]

Just now, Newman said:

Hey Paul, I don't have that list for you readily available, sorry! The NOAA climate sites that I use for this allow you to parse the data by day, but not necessarily by "storm". So I could find this for you through some manual interpretation and adding up snow from known storms by each day, but I can't do it right now haha.

Would imaging being a professional you are a wee bit busy!! good luck!!

 

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

1st gut call in my area 10-11" snow and 1" sleet/graupel

High end SECS possibly hit the MECS mark

 

I just want 12.1" to say I received over a foot. I'm a simple guy...

[zenmsav6810]

19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Exactly my point. It's a very solid storm on the weekend w/the NFC/AFC championship games being played. I couldn't have a more lazy day planned...

5. 1994 (I wasn't yet born but my Mom was expecting me) 4. Snowpocalpse-Snowmageddon 3. January 2016 2. PDII 1. Jan 1996 is the alltimer list in my lifetime. My HECS of all time is March 1957.  

[ChescoWx]

1 minute ago, Newman said:

Hey Paul, I don't have that list for you readily available, sorry! The NOAA climate sites that I use for this allow you to parse the data by day, but not necessarily by "storm". So I could find this for you through some manual interpretation and adding up snow from known storms by each day, but I can't do it right now haha.

Of interest on that list of top 50 storms - 11 of those 50 have occurred since 2000. So any climate changes at least here in Chesco are not lessening the frequency of big snowstorms!