January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[The Iceman]

Gfs isn’t alone, the NWS blend has also been showing big totals as well and pretty much all snow. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

18z Euros.  Still think tomorrow with the 0zs and 12zs will be "go time" (including the NAM) - 

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

And so you proceeeded to send me down the rabbit hole to sub to that.  I remember when they first came out and were free (for some stuff).  But times change... 

Their 18z GFS 282 hr sleet map - still looks to be down just below Philly metro.

Lazy me goes back and finds it was quoted post from Jan 13 lmao 

Im done brain nap time

[LVblizzard]

Seems to me that the north trend stopped with 0z last night. Models have been pretty consistent today. Now we just need them to converge on a solution.

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Maybe we do get a compromise, which would still be nice. The floor for this one looks to be 6 inches plus sleet which is a high floor.

Folks will need to measure and wipe their snowboards as the sleet begins (plus run out and shovel). Sleet counts as snow albeit at about 3:1 a bit slower accumulations!

[Duca892]

Sorry I thought EURO was swinging better. I’m doing copium trying to breath life into the GFS

[jrodd321]

Euro is beautiful. 

[ron1660]

I do not write much, but the Euro AIFS model forms the transferred low visibly east of the Euro operational model, and as a result, proposes a slightly, but critical colder solution. 850 mb temperatures are 1 degree C colder, and, though it matters less, surface temperatures right around the Philly area are a full 3-4 degrees F colder. The snow difference is significant. The 10:1 ratio snow difference is 4 inches. Though Weatherbell does not show Kuchera accumulations for the AIFS model, one would have to assume that the difference would be 6" of snow.

[tcutter]

36 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

This would work for sure 

[CoolHandMike]

Haven't seen a map like this in quite a while... and this is only through 7pm Sunday

[Mo Snow]

17 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Haven't seen a map like this in quite a while... and this is only through 7pm Sunday

Pretty insane, thats like 100,000 square miles of 10" of snow forecasted just on this zoomed in map

[zenmsav6810]

1 hour ago, tcutter said:

This would work for sure 

everyones a winner on that map.

[Kevin Reilly]

14 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Pretty insane, thats like 100,000 square miles of 10" of snow forecasted just on this zoomed in map

Helpful for the drought long term.

[ChescoWx]

NAM 12km hitting the sleet hard past Allentown....

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

NAM 12km hitting the sleet hard past Allentown....

[LVblizzard]

All the other mesos, including the 3km NAM, think the NAM is way too warm FWIW.

[RedSky]

2.4"sleet in Philly couldn't make this up living in the twilight zone

[bringmesnow1]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

2.4"sleet in Philly couldn't make this up living in the twilight zone

Feels like we're getting closer to the event and model disagreement is increasing.  smh... 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said:

Haven't seen a map like this in quite a while... and this is only through 7pm Sunday

The last map I remember that looked like this was the one 10 years ago, just before the January 2016 storm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just before the rgem flips se pa to sleet. 

[ChescoWx]

21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

2.4"sleet in Philly couldn't make this up living in the twilight zone

I way prefer a sleetfest to ZR!!!

 

[LowerBucksWx]

I keep telling myself that no matter what happens, we are in for a long duration daytime event.  A few inches here or there won't change that.

[RedSky]

GFS starts to cave .80" sleet in Philly

 

[Duca892]

Bound to happen sooner or later. Still sucks lol

[bringmesnow1]

I posted this in the MA forum.  

The GFS is undeniably moving the heaviest snows to the N&W over the last 4 runs as more sleet mixes in, and, as expected, moving into the camp of the other models.

[mattinpa]

11 minutes ago, bringmesnow1 said:

I posted this in the MA forum.  

The GFS is undeniably moving the heaviest snows to the N&W over the last 4 runs as more sleet mixes in, and, as expected, moving into the camp of the other models.

Not so sure we get that much sleet. The UKMet looks like extended snow also. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, mattinpa said:

Not so sure we get that much sleet. The UKMet looks like extended snow also. 

Looks like a different orientation northeast to southwest classic.  screams coastal redevelopment more a nod to gfs in my opinion.  
 

 

[mattinpa]

Ukie did have a dry slot limiting totals a bit but the sleet comes late.