January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[The Iceman]

Gfs isn’t alone, the NWS blend has also been showing big totals as well and pretty much all snow. 

[Hurricane Agnes]

18z Euros.  Still think tomorrow with the 0zs and 12zs will be "go time" (including the NAM) - 

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

And so you proceeeded to send me down the rabbit hole to sub to that.  I remember when they first came out and were free (for some stuff).  But times change... 

Their 18z GFS 282 hr sleet map - still looks to be down just below Philly metro.

Lazy me goes back and finds it was quoted post from Jan 13 lmao 

Im done brain nap time

[LVblizzard]

Seems to me that the north trend stopped with 0z last night. Models have been pretty consistent today. Now we just need them to converge on a solution.

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Maybe we do get a compromise, which would still be nice. The floor for this one looks to be 6 inches plus sleet which is a high floor.

Folks will need to measure and wipe their snowboards as the sleet begins (plus run out and shovel). Sleet counts as snow albeit at about 3:1 a bit slower accumulations!

[Duca892]

Sorry I thought EURO was swinging better. I’m doing copium trying to breath life into the GFS

[jrodd321]

Euro is beautiful. 

[ron1660]

I do not write much, but the Euro AIFS model forms the transferred low visibly east of the Euro operational model, and as a result, proposes a slightly, but critical colder solution. 850 mb temperatures are 1 degree C colder, and, though it matters less, surface temperatures right around the Philly area are a full 3-4 degrees F colder. The snow difference is significant. The 10:1 ratio snow difference is 4 inches. Though Weatherbell does not show Kuchera accumulations for the AIFS model, one would have to assume that the difference would be 6" of snow.

[tcutter]

36 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Initial snow+sleet forecast... main issue will obviously be the mixing that comes in on Sunday, mainly along and east of I-95. Very excited as my kid is 6 and has not seen a 6"+ snow event.

This would work for sure 

[CoolHandMike]

Haven't seen a map like this in quite a while... and this is only through 7pm Sunday

[Mo Snow]

17 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Haven't seen a map like this in quite a while... and this is only through 7pm Sunday

Pretty insane, thats like 100,000 square miles of 10" of snow forecasted just on this zoomed in map

[zenmsav6810]

1 hour ago, tcutter said:

This would work for sure 

everyones a winner on that map.

[Kevin Reilly]

14 minutes ago, Mo Snow said:

Pretty insane, thats like 100,000 square miles of 10" of snow forecasted just on this zoomed in map

Helpful for the drought long term.

[ChescoWx]

NAM 12km hitting the sleet hard past Allentown....

[RedSky]

6 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

NAM 12km hitting the sleet hard past Allentown....

[LVblizzard]

All the other mesos, including the 3km NAM, think the NAM is way too warm FWIW.

[RedSky]

2.4"sleet in Philly couldn't make this up living in the twilight zone

[bringmesnow1]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

2.4"sleet in Philly couldn't make this up living in the twilight zone

Feels like we're getting closer to the event and model disagreement is increasing.  smh... 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said:

Haven't seen a map like this in quite a while... and this is only through 7pm Sunday

The last map I remember that looked like this was the one 10 years ago, just before the January 2016 storm.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just before the rgem flips se pa to sleet. 

[ChescoWx]

21 minutes ago, RedSky said:

2.4"sleet in Philly couldn't make this up living in the twilight zone

I way prefer a sleetfest to ZR!!!

 

[LowerBucksWx]

I keep telling myself that no matter what happens, we are in for a long duration daytime event.  A few inches here or there won't change that.