January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential

[The Iceman]

2 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

19z NBM (18z ICON is running).

It has been nothing if not consistent. The blend has barely waffled the last 24 hours.

[Birds~69]

Cecily's first call 1m ago. She usually does a live facebook each day at 4:30pm and goes through models.

 

https://www.facebook.com/search/top?q=cecily tynan

 

[Hurricane Agnes]

3 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

I'm starting to become curious if this thing accounts for mixing or if its heavily based on the GFS

 

Mike indicated earlier in the thread what it used. 

3 hours ago, MGorse said:

Not just those. This is an older image, but gives a great summary of the NBM inputs. 

 

I just added the ice image too.

[Hurricane Agnes]

The 18z ICON has it still accumulating up in NE PA and east, into Tuesday

[MickeyTim6533]

GFS drier

 

[JTA66]

39 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Sunday evening/night holds blizzard warning criteria. Something to keep an eye on.

I was thinking about that the other day, but currently it doesn’t look like we’ll meet the wind criteria. We’ll see.

[mattinpa]

Is the GFS just slower? Looks ok in the map I saw in the MA forum. 

[MickeyTim6533]

sorry GFS is a beatdown

[anthonyweather]

5 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I was thinking about that the other day, but currently it doesn’t look like we’ll meet the wind criteria. We’ll see.

nam euro and gfs have quite a few hours of 35mph gusts Sunday evening which meets criteria , of course its only Thursday but something to keep an eye on

[Newman]

GFS looks nice but I'm not believing it. It's what you'd expect it to show at this stage with its typical progressive bias. With the snow last Sunday here in Florida, it trended significantly more amped just within 24 hours of the event.

[Duca892]

GFS not only doubles down. It is one of the biggest runs it has had for this event yet lmfao. 

[Birds~69]

8 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I was thinking about that the other day, but currently it doesn’t look like we’ll meet the wind criteria. We’ll see.

I doubt we hit 35mph at all unless it becomes real wrapped up...

What are the criteria for a blizzard?

 

Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains large amounts of snow OR blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for an extended period of time (at least 3 hours).

[anthonyweather]

1 minute ago, Birds~69 said:

I doubt we hit 35mph at all unless it becomes real wrapped up...

What are the criteria for a blizzard?

 

Officially, the National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm which contains large amounts of snow OR blowing snow, with winds in excess of 35 mph and visibilities of less than 1/4 mile for an extended period of time (at least 3 hours).

its defined as sustained of 35 mph or more OR frequent gusts over 35

[Birds~69]

1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

its defined as sustained of 35 mph or more OR frequent gusts over 35

That's copy/paste from google. 

Maybe toward the coast 35mph but inland I'm a little skeptical...

[mattinpa]

7 minutes ago, Newman said:

GFS looks nice but I'm not believing it. It's what you'd expect it to show at this stage with its typical progressive bias. With the snow last Sunday here in Florida, it trended significantly more amped just within 24 hours of the event.

Maybe we do get a compromise, which would still be nice. The floor for this one looks to be 6 inches plus sleet which is a high floor.

[Birds~69]

Just now, mattinpa said:

Maybe we do get a compromise, which would still be nice. The floor for this one looks to be 6 inches plus sleet which is a high floor.

Sounds like shoveling hell....aching body/back. 

[mattinpa]

17 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Sounds like shoveling hell....aching body/back. 

That’s the one thing I dislike about heavy snow.,

[Hurricane Agnes]

18z GFS - 

[RedSky]

Need the sleet panel

[Hurricane Agnes]

18Z AIGFS total qpf -

[Hurricane Agnes]

3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Need the sleet panel

Seems to be downplaying any sleet/ZR!  Looks to be an outlier.  May have to see what it does for the 0z.

[RedSky]

MA is on a sugar high but GFS will give you the diabeetus

[Heisy]

GFS not only doubles down. It is one of the biggest runs it has had for this event yet lmfao. 

Bias into play. It keeps the CCB snows over PA when other models have it up near Canada lol. I’m not going to say it’s “impossible”, but it’s likely wrong of course and will gradually correct itself

For Philly I’m going 4-7” then sleet. I know I’m on the low end, but I’m just going off how these types of events generally play out here.


.

[RedSky]

4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Seems to be downplaying any sleet/ZR!  Looks to be an outlier.  May have to see what it does for the 0z.

Huge amount of sleet it was posted in the MA side half hour ago and its already buried under pages of hopes and dreams

[Birds~69]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Bias into play. It keeps the CCB snows over PA when other models have it up near Canada lol. I’m not going to say it’s “impossible”, but it’s likely wrong of course and will gradually correct itself

For Philly I’m going 4-7” then sleet. I know I’m on the low end, but I’m just going off how these types of events generally play out here.


.

We always hear pinging way earlier than predicted. Even the local burbs in Bucks/Mont counties. Once Philly hears pinging I know in about an hour or two so will I...

[anthonyweather]

Wind gusts 1AM Monday on gfs close to 40mph in eastern pa . Evidence this could persist 6+ hours which again, puts us in definition of blizzard warning criteria. 

 

Blizzard Warning

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions

[bringmesnow1]

1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

Wind gusts 1AM Monday on gfs close to 40mph in eastern pa . Evidence this could persist 6+ hours which again, puts us in definition of blizzard warning criteria. 

 

Blizzard Warning

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions

Let's pray that doesn't verify if we are going to have any freezing rain.  That could be a catastrophic outcome leading to extremely long-duration and widespread power outages.  

[Hurricane Agnes]

18 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Huge amount of sleet it was posted in the MA side half hour ago and its already buried under pages of hopes and dreams

I have been going through that and the MA gets huge amounts of sleet but not up here based on that GFS run!

[Violentweatherfan]

58 minutes ago, Newman said:

GFS looks nice but I'm not believing it. It's what you'd expect it to show at this stage with its typical progressive bias. With the snow last Sunday here in Florida, it trended significantly more amped just within 24 hours of the event.

For me it’s the location of where the LP development, it’s not hugging the coast like the Euro 

[hazwoper]

Anxiously awaiting the 0Z runs.  I feel like the NAM in its over wet bias is also a tad warm.  I also don’t like the all snow output from the GFS for obvious reasons.  I suspect a last minute shift a tad south on the mesos as we get closer.

JMO