Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Well, I remember opening the Jan 2016 storm thread 7 days prior, and we had good vibes. Feeling ok about this one as well. Put all storm related discussion here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Thank You all for keeping people like me who just see colors on a map more informed. I enjoy your play by plays and trying (usually failing) to add something relevant. Thank Ya's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z ICON at 96 looks improved with the Baja ull moving out a shade quicker and also with the angle and strength of the sw diving South out of Alberta. Relative to its 6z run. Should be a better run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago ICON was a relative 'quick' hitter, about 18 hrs in duration (1PM Sunday->7AM Monday). Had all the key features presented. Just a little sloppy with the phase and subtle timing differences/noise. Not a concern, still looks like a beatdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON was a relative 'quick' hitter, about 18 hrs in duration (1PM Sunday->7AM Monday). Had all the key features presented. Just a little sloppy with the phase and subtle timing differences/noise. Not a concern, still looks like a beatdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Just now, MJO812 said: Oh, hey there. Fuck. Bullseye 5 days out. Kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Oh yeah the icon will do. Love the amped solution it’s just hoping it can stay there for 5 days lol . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh, hey there. Fuck. Bullseye 5 days out. Kiss of death. That's why I liked yesterday's suppressed looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago That's why I liked yesterday's suppressed looks. Me too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 minute ago, coastal front said: Me too . Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2005 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago sweating the bullets awaiting 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Definitely looks south no? H is in PA at 108 vs. H in NY at 114 on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago What a disaster 12z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Ai GFS missed everyone North of the PA/MD border. Hardly any precip makes it into PA on this model. Can't make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago ^^ It has my 29th system tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The Baja ball is held back keeping it suppressed. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago AI gfs last 4 runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: AI gfs last 4 runs: The verification score drops rapidly under day 5 for the AI's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 26 minutes ago, JTA66 said: That's why I liked yesterday's suppressed looks. There are still suppressed looks, so we do have some wiggle room i suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ha! Got my suppressed look with the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CMC is a monster hit . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Ha! Got my suppressed look with the GFS CMC also took a 150 mile jump South with the surface low off of SC. Still throws good moisture our way, better than GFS. But a notable increase in confluence and strength of HP to our North this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, coastal front said: CMC is a monster hit . It is, and maybe just noise, but there were big enough differences under the hood to make me raise an eyebrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Yeah this is why you don’t start threads 5 days out imo. Major negative changes on the gfs and cmc. Suppression is definitely on the table. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It is, and maybe just noise, but there were big enough differences under the hood to make me raise an eyebrow. I think the GFS is what it is because of how it’s handling the cold air. Therefore suppressed, how often do these super cold temps verify. Rarely, so I think the GFS will come north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Yeah this is why you don’t start threads 5 days out imo. Major negative changes on the gfs and cmc. Suppression is definitely on the table. CMC wasn't horrible just had it strung out a little more. Didn't have the capture to make it the big storm. Still a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastal front Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CMC is a solid 8-16 region wide. Very similar to the icon. If anything the gfs at this point is on an island . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, ChescoWx said: i mean this would just be brutal, absolutely positively brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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