Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[nycsnow]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Probably signals that the gfs will also.   Mixing so far stays south of the city

 

I actually just posted same time as you… it collapses from 20-23

[nycsnow]

Nam is literally on an island all alone now

[dseagull]

Haven't chimed in on this one much until now.  While total snowfall depths are often the hot topic of debate, this storm (in our subforum,) is going to be known for something entirely different near the city and coastal plains.     Mixing, even over to a brief light rain or snizzle, is only going to make the freeze and frozen concrete worse.

 The crashing reinforcement of cold air on Monday is going to absolutely be the headline.  Id much rather have to deal with 12-18 inches of powder than what we are likely going to have to deal with.  You cant shovel chunks of frozen snow in 10-20 degree temps.    Been there, done that.   This storm is going to delay many construction projects. 

[NorthShoreWx]

16 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

It is quite frustrating that this is the coldest airmass storm for us in a decade? And we are discussing precip type. Crash out type stuff 

That very 80s.

[Brasiluvsnow]

A question,,,,,,,,we have heard about how the NAM can sniff out these warm layers BUT why is it that no other model is able to do this in past scenarios,,,,,IS there another model that has a decent track record of doing this other than the dreaded NAM ?

[WeatherGeek2025]

                                         

 

                                         I HATE THE NAM

 

 

[chrisNJ]

28 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

it certainly led the way detecting the warm nose from its 84 hour run...there is pretty good agreement now that south of 78 will have a changeover to sleet...the question is does it get all the way up the ny/nj border. The high end amount for this storm have all been sliced little by little. The HRRR is always cold and snowier than reality. Im not saying it might only be 4-6, i am saying the warming alot is real. That will prevent those 10-12 inch amounts in central jersey and Nyc and jersey shore

im expecting a heavy thump for about 5 hours from 8-1pm and then sleet and then shuts down to snizzle....5-6 inches with an inch of sleet. maybe 6-8 a call for my area

I pretty much agree for our area. It comes down to rates before the pingers. Ill go with 8” snow and sleet. The iceberg will be with us for weeks. 

[SACRUS]

RRFS

 

[psv88]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

RRFS

 

That’s MUCH snowier than its last runs 

[Prue11]

5 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

                                         

 

                                         I HATE THE NAM

 

 

Didn’t the nam do well the last storm we had?

[psv88]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

Didn’t the nam do well the last storm we had?

You need to stop…you’re going to drive yourself nuts. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 00z ICON

 

[nycsnow]

Icon should be snowier than 18z

[WestBabylonWeather]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

RRFS

 

[nycsnow]

Nice improvement on icon

[MANDA]

39 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Nam has to be overdone. Euro has held. I’ll take the blend. 6-10” on Long Island and then sleet 

Reasonable solution.

[SACRUS]

 

[nycsnow]

[wthrmn654]

Is all that recon flying for the next system? 

[wthrmn654]

Oh and I reached out to Upton about radar no reply yet. 

[nycsnow]

[mob1]

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Next frame. RAP and HRRR have been getting warmer all day (not every run, but definitely overall throughout the day)

[Winterweatherlover]

9 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nice improvement on icon

To me each run looks around the same, seems every model pretty has the immediate NYC area about 8-11 inches except the NAM.

[nycsnow]

Mix line was collapsing south at 21 

[jm1220]

Just now, mob1 said:

Next frame. RAP and HRRR have been getting warmer all day (not every run, but definitely overall throughout the day)

Yeah-if mixing is getting close to I-80 in PA here, it would definitely get to the city and LI. They will catch up to the other guidance overnight. 

[nycsnow]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Next frame. RAP and HRRR have been getting warmer all day (not every run, but definitely overall throughout the day)

But if you look @ 21 the mix line starts to collapse kind of like rrfs

[psv88]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

To me each run looks around the same, seems every model pretty has the immediate NYC area about 8-11 inches.

Icon has gotten better for the island. Solid trends 

[nycsnow]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yeah-if mixing is getting close to I-80 in PA here, it would definitely get to the city and LI. They will catch up to the other guidance overnight. 

The only one not an 8-12 hit is the Nam, cut a couple of inches off rap and hrr it’s in line with everything

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Yeah-if mixing is getting close to I-80 in PA here, it would definitely get to the city and LI. They will catch up to the other guidance overnight. 

It will definitely mix at some point but some models hint at it creepily rapidly into NJ/NYC area and then an initial collapse I guess during heavy precip and coastal takeover?

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, nycsnow said:

The only one not an 8-12 hit is the Nam, cut a couple of inches off rap and hrr it’s in line with everything

Reasonable, I predicted 9” for Central Park last night. 10” for the north shore, 7-8” for the south shore.