SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Euoro total QPF Total snow (10:1) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 00z euro ai aifs Total QPF Total Snow (10:1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Euro looks awesome Early-mid afternoon big time fun, flip to sleet by 7pm-ish but by then the vast majority already fell. Euro got wetter too, went from about 0.9" liquid last run to 1.2 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Snow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Love the 0z trends tonight. Let's see how 12Z holds. How's the radar looking to what models were forecasting as far as snow/sleet line? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, SACRUS said: 1/24 00Z NYC QPF / Snow (Frz) SREF (mean): 1.3 / 9.7 NAM: 1.2 / 4.7 ICON: 1.4 / 8.1 RGEM: 1.2 / 9.5 GFS: 1/3 / 11.1 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.1 / 9.8 GEFS: 1.5 / 10.3 UKMET: 0.9 / 7.4 GGEM: 1.3 / 9.1 Euro : 1.2 / 10.2 Euro AI AIFS: 1,2 / 11.0 Updayted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OborSnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 If we stay snow till 7pm I can not see LI not getting 10-12inches . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, Nibor said: HeRPS never gives up that primary, but stays plenty cold from the Raritan on north; combined with the Euro holding just now and I’m feeling confident in the MMU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Adjusted WSW to 7-13 now which I completely agree with. Front end thump will bring the goods followed by sleet/ZR. It's gonna be a mess 6z HRRR showing that crazy front end dump. Big improvement over 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 We are a little over 24 hrs from this baby starting and this place is a morgue. Brutal. Guess it isn’t like the old days. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, Mo Snow said: lol is GFS really going to win out? It might. But do not misinterpret what the Euro and to a greater extent other models have shown. The thrill of this event will be the heavy snow. When the dynamics begin to lift to our north and east some warmer air at upper levels causes some mixing and possibly a brief changeover Sunday night. But by the time this happens almost all the most significant precipitation most likely has fallen. Therefore the greater snow amounts we are seeing on the GFS and the operational Euro. Euro AI is probably overdoing the influx of warmer air at the upper levels as I suspect is NAM. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 2 hours ago, OborSnow said: If we stay snow till 7pm I can not see LI not getting 10-12inches . I don’t think that’s happening with all the models showing, you might be lucky to squeeze out 3 to 5 inches on the island before an icy mix comes your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noteaster101 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 19 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: We are a little over 24 hrs from this baby starting and this place is a morgue. Brutal. Guess it isn’t like the old days. I’m here in Rockland County in a very sweet spot, the mixing shouldn’t affect my area too much, believe me, I’m ready!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 3 am thoughts: When it does snow, it's going to be the heaviest snow some of us have ever seen in our lives. Think 2" - 3" per hour snow. Literally puking snow. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6z Nam looks a lot better than 0z...much more in line with other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6z NAM a tad bit colder for those directly on the edge. Noise at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 27 minutes ago, TriPol said: 06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island. That's half an inch of sleet on LI which is nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 CNJ / middle third is a tough forecast I’m thinking, anywhere in the battleground / changeover stripe is gonna be a tough call. Depends further if we’re talking accumulating sleet or white rain, or even ice - not so sure that’s well resolved. Hoping the city gets blasted, but for here I’m really not sure. Mt Holly is still fairly aggressive even with their now reduced totals (7-13). Accuweather has near even odds between 8-12, 4-8, and even 2-4 which underscores what I’m talking about. Could bust high or bust low, tough one. Down to 10 with a -6 DP! I’d say the arctic air has arrived . Still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Down to 8 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 Gfs is warmer and sleet gets into the NYC area faster. Cut down totals to single digits 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 GFS definitely warmer, that mix line literally cuts the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is warmer and sleet gets into the NYC area faster. Cut down totals to single digits I wouldn't pay attention to the GFS inside of 24 hours. HRRR is my go to at this point, although I'm pretty giddy about the RRFS coming soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 24 Author Share Posted January 24 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: I’m actually glad to see it. What’s the famous scene in Citizen Kane… his old sled, Rosebud… a child’s memory of playing in the snow….saw a 78 year old retired superintendent recently, I asked him how they made school decisions. He said when it comes to snow he is like a kid again. He’d go out at 4 am with grounds supervisor to see three schools; if the grounds guy said close the schools he did. Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 1 hour ago, TriPol said: 06z HRRR is incredible for our area as far as snow and icing. It shows half an inch of ice on Long Island. That isn't ice accumulation. That's sleet that falls, so half an inch of sleet roughly which would be about 0.15 liquid. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 13 minutes ago, TriPol said: Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there." With remote learning the old snow days may be a thing of the past. I stopped paying attention when my youngest graduated in 2020 and I retired. Now I follow storms mostly because there ain’t much to do in winter. 2 hours ago I thought we were back on track now the gfs is showing a lot of sleet, which for the record I still think is the outcome down here; single digits and lots of sleet. By here I mean just west of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 18 minutes ago, TriPol said: Yeah, the Rosebud bit is poetic in theory, but let's be real—by the time you're a 78-year-old superintendent, that 4 a.m. snow check is less "childlike wonder" and more "please don't make me explain another lawsuit to the board." The grounds guy says close, you close: it's not nostalgia, it's CYA (cover your ass) wrapped in boots and a flashlight. Still, in a world of endless model runs and liability spreadsheets, there's something grimly satisfying about one last decision boiled down to "looks bad out there." Superintendent is a power position like the mayor; I had one who sent home flyers saying they don’t close for snow in places like Michigan so we don’t either. We’d be open when no one else was. Half the teachers would be out and I had to cover their classes and mine. So I decided to call out as well. Was glad to leave that district. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 27 minutes ago, TriPol said: I wouldn't pay attention to the GFS inside of 24 hours. HRRR is my go to at this point, although I'm pretty giddy about the RRFS coming soon. HRRR is probably too cold at this range and will come into line with other guidance. I'd love for it to verify too but it's still a little outside of where I'd use it. GFS was always going to cave. NAM getting a little better is somewhat encouraging although losing the GFS to this degree is a little concerning. It's going to sleet a decent amount into the city with this, we just have to hope the heavy snow rates can hold it back as long as possible. SWFEs will just try to screw us over in any way they can and gain the last possible inch north. This is the exact storm type where Boston will get buried. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rwes1 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 10° out here for the low. Looking forward to what’s coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 6F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 24 Share Posted January 24 RGEM is a huge thump. Almost a foot on Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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