Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

GFS LP drops 22mb in 24 hours.  Only a wee bit shy of a bomb, and with that big high over Quebec, there would be some wind.

almost bombgenesis! GFS is what i think will happen. I expect Euro AI to look like the GFS in the next few runs possibly even tonight. Cmc is wrong!

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. 

GGEM (CMC)

 

Common biases

Over-deepens coastal lows

Track often too far north or west

QPF inflation → snow maps run hot

Can be noisy run-to-run

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

CMC isn't my favorite model but it's still a potential solution. One thing the CMC and rgem were consistently over amplified in past years at this range. 

I feel like the CMC has been doing better than the GFS this year. It's purely anecdotal but I don't trust the GFS at all.

[the_other_guy]

2 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said:

Long duration events never usually work out for us

Really? I havent found that. All of our great blizzards come to mind. Most recently 2016

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

almost bombgenesis! GFS is what i think will happen. I expect Euro AI to look like the GFS in the next few runs possibly even tonight. Cmc is wrong!

Shocking

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. 

But CMC ain't a good model 

It's actually one of the best global models in the world. The only clearly superior model in terms of verification is the ECMWF.

[SACRUS]

 

UKIE 

 

 

 

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. 

But CMC ain't a good model 

People here have pointed out that CMC has better verification scores than GFS. To me it has seemed to do a better job than GFS the last several years. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

gfs and icon almost identical

cmc out to lunch

[Winterweatherlover]

Can tell already Ukie will be colder than the CMC.

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

People here have pointed out that CMC has better verification scores than GFS. To me it has seemed to do a better job than GFS the last several years. 

And it over amplifies a lot 

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. 

But CMC ain't a good model 

It’s usually #2 and sometimes #3 in verification.

[eduggs]

Through 18z Sat the UK is a little flatter than 12z. Still amped but a tick less. I'd prefer small run-to-run changes anyway, especially if they are in the right direction.

[SACRUS]

UK

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

And it over amplifies a lot 

It can, but not always.

 

[Nibor]

@donsutherland1 Do you know which models got the recon data?

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

If the synoptic evolution remains similar the next couple of days then I will really start to look at the nam to see the real story on the mid-level warmth. It's basically the only thing the nam is good for. 

Bernie Rayno shared the Euro soundings tonight on his video feed. There’s briefly a narrow warm tounge around 700mb in NYC. It gets to maybe +1C for 6 hours late Sunday night.

[Winterweatherlover]

UKIE basically all snow for this whole subforum with inconsequential light mix at the tail end.

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

It can, but not always.

 

Historically this would be the time frame that it would over amp, however, given the trends, I would think this is within the realm of possibilities. 

[NorthShoreWx]

20 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure snow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in my mind. Snow is snow

Yeah, all this pure snow we've been getting the past 3 or 4 winters is getting boring 

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 hours ago, BoulderWX said:

Fold to what? there is no firm consensus. 6-12 for most of the region seems like a good call right now. 

 

6 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

fold to euro ai, plus 30% more qpf and higher ratios than 10:1 say 14:1 to 16:1 and you have the exact solution for your backyard!

read more and post less. i said the GFS was going to fold to euro ai and it did. honestly you post nothing of value besides try to dig knowledgeable posters. you should banter your jokes

6 minutes ago, Nibor said:

7 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Shocking

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Still going at Monday PM

 

[SACRUS]

 

Ends after here (monday 5-6 PM)

 

[eduggs]

The UKIE is ICON-esque! Maybe a tick warmer than the ICON but better than 12z IMO. Threatens a mix/dryslot or at least lull, but redevelops on Monday! Sweet run!

[SACRUS]

 

UMET 1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm

 

[NorthShoreWx]

14 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Nothing like a sleet storm with 45 mph winds. LFGGGG

Then you would have loved the blizzard this week in 1978:

https://www.northshorewx.com/19780120.html

[SACRUS]

56 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 00Z QPF  - NYC

 

ICON: 1.5 
GFS: 1.2 
GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9
GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet)
UKMET: 1.2  (90% snow)

Updated

[Winterweatherlover]

UKMET 

Just now, SACRUS said:

 

UMET 1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm

 

At least 90% of it is snow for NYC Metro, would be a huge hit.