the_other_guy Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, Snowguy66 said: Long duration events never usually work out for us Really? I havent found that. All of our great blizzards come to mind. Most recently 2016 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: almost bombgenesis! GFS is what i think will happen. I expect Euro AI to look like the GFS in the next few runs possibly even tonight. Cmc is wrong! Shocking 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model It's actually one of the best global models in the world. The only clearly superior model in terms of verification is the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model People here have pointed out that CMC has better verification scores than GFS. To me it has seemed to do a better job than GFS the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 gfs and icon almost identical cmc out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Can tell already Ukie will be colder than the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: People here have pointed out that CMC has better verification scores than GFS. To me it has seemed to do a better job than GFS the last several years. And it over amplifies a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Inches of sleet on top of snow would absolutely suck. But CMC ain't a good model It’s usually #2 and sometimes #3 in verification. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Through 18z Sat the UK is a little flatter than 12z. Still amped but a tick less. I'd prefer small run-to-run changes anyway, especially if they are in the right direction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, SnoSki14 said: And it over amplifies a lot It can, but not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 @donsutherland1 Do you know which models got the recon data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 13 minutes ago, Rjay said: If the synoptic evolution remains similar the next couple of days then I will really start to look at the nam to see the real story on the mid-level warmth. It's basically the only thing the nam is good for. Bernie Rayno shared the Euro soundings tonight on his video feed. There’s briefly a narrow warm tounge around 700mb in NYC. It gets to maybe +1C for 6 hours late Sunday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UKIE basically all snow for this whole subforum with inconsequential light mix at the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: It can, but not always. Historically this would be the time frame that it would over amp, however, given the trends, I would think this is within the realm of possibilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 20 minutes ago, psv88 said: I want at some point a nice ice/sleet/snow event. Stays frozen but just a total disaster. At some point pure snow gets boring. An icy messy disaster is more fun in my mind. Snow is snow Yeah, all this pure snow we've been getting the past 3 or 4 winters is getting boring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 hours ago, BoulderWX said: Fold to what? there is no firm consensus. 6-12 for most of the region seems like a good call right now. 6 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: fold to euro ai, plus 30% more qpf and higher ratios than 10:1 say 14:1 to 16:1 and you have the exact solution for your backyard! read more and post less. i said the GFS was going to fold to euro ai and it did. honestly you post nothing of value besides try to dig knowledgeable posters. you should banter your jokes 6 minutes ago, Nibor said: 7 minutes ago, Nibor said: Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Still going at Monday PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ends after here (monday 5-6 PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 The UKIE is ICON-esque! Maybe a tick warmer than the ICON but better than 12z IMO. Threatens a mix/dryslot or at least lull, but redevelops on Monday! Sweet run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UMET 1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: Nothing like a sleet storm with 45 mph winds. LFGGGG Then you would have loved the blizzard this week in 1978: https://www.northshorewx.com/19780120.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 56 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1/22 00Z QPF - NYC ICON: 1.5 GFS: 1.2 GFS AI AIGFS: 0.9 GGEM: 1.2 (50% sleet) UKMET: 1.2 (90% snow) Updated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 UKMET Just now, SACRUS said: UMET 1/22 00Z Total QPF - storm At least 90% of it is snow for NYC Metro, would be a huge hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 CMC looks like a clear amped outlier so far at 00z... even then, it's still 6-8" for the metro with some mix at the end, which shows how good this setup is 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 With that prolonged easterly fetch some of the spots in SENJ and EMA that are favored for ocean enhancement could approach 2" liquid - a lot of which could be frozen. Great to see both the ICON and UK well over 1" liquid across most of our area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowguy66 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 What I really meant was that model forecasted long duration events most of the time don't come to fruition. I see them all the time advertise in models and yes, some do happen but most of the time it's not as long as the model is showing. I love long, duration events. Outside of total snowfall that is my second desire out of a snowstorm. If we get a 24+ our snowstorm out of this one will be super ecstatic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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