Jersey_Snowhole Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said: ICON with the warm push . By tomorrow it will be all rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: been a trend all day-continue northward ticks... i don't know how, after all this time, folks can confidently talk about a foot plus of snow when we have seen multiple cases of things changing radically even the day before. this was entirely predictable. it might still be wrong. it's only wednesday ffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxbear25 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: All the models have it down there. The key is it ejecting Saturday morning. It’s interesting that one piece of this storm will bring rain to Southern CA on Friday. Relative to its 12z run, it was noticeably southwest The biggest change was how it handled the energy in Canada. The whole orientation of the trough north of the border changed between the 12 and 18z run ultimately, it’s that piece, more so than the southern stream itself, which will dictate how far north this comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, jdj5211 said: Crappy when it’s not a great run. Good when it is a great run! As is the rule with all models. . no i look at icon for one specific reason 2m temps... that's the only thing that it could be useful. it is the worst model of all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: Still 6+ almost entire subforum does that really mean anything either....this is days away; best we can say is there is some weather ahead. that's all. be prepared either way. it does not hurt to be prepared. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: no i look at icon for one specific reason 2m temps... that's the only thing that it could be useful. it is the worst model of all so what model would you consider the best, knowing of course that none of them are perfect...there was a met the other day that said this would not come north...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: i don't know how, after all this time, folks can confidently talk about a foot plus of snow when we have seen multiple cases of things changing radically even the day before. this was entirely predictable. it might still be wrong. it's only wednesday ffs. thats why I posted this little gem of a link - Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary mass hysteria - all milk and bread sold out for next to nothing in accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: so what model would you consider the best, knowing of course that none of them are perfect...there was a met the other day that said this would not come north...lol euro AI is the best model of all! follow that and it'll lead you to the real solution in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 We saw how much mixing the CMC showed on the 12z run and Euro brought in mixing early Sunday afternoon, so this ICON run isn't something new. We're trending in that direction. Hopefully our major snowstorm won't fall apart. We will get a front end dump due to the arctic air in place, but it wouldn't be a shock if it's just a mediocre 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 dump before mixing like we've seen many times in the past. Of course the big amounts are very possible too -- a long way to go with this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 guys just to walk you off the cliff here, the high on Sunday somewhere between 19 and 23°. This is not your NYC run of the mill snowstorm where this is going to rain or you’re not gonna get accumulation. I think some of you are losing sight of that with this sleet potential. Whatever falls is going to stick and it’s gonna stick hard 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: guys just to walk you off the cliff here, the high on Sunday somewhere between 19 and 23°. This is not your NYC run of the mill snowstorm where this is going to rain or you’re not gonna get accumulation. I think some of you are losing sight of that with this sleet potential. Whatever falls is going to stick and it’s gonna stick hard True with the ground so cold also we don't want to get any freezing rain - that could be a nightmare - the folks down south are hoping they don't experience that - no fun living without electric in this weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said: euro AI is the best model of all! follow that and it'll lead you to the real solution in my opinion thanks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 13 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: By tomorrow it will be all rain look at how close the taint is to Anthony's nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Happens all the time. Everyone acts like where they are is where everyone is. No concept the forum runs a general 75 mile radius north south east and west of Central Park. Obviously the only place we should care about is the North and West homestead.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model. You have 2m temps in the teens in VA and Eastern PA where it’s showing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 12 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said: By tomorrow it will be all rain For that to happen the primary would have to go into the great lakes and the secondary hug the coast or not develop at all and precip somehow doesn't arrive until late in the day on Sunday since it will be like 10 degrees Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, NJwx85 said: This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model. is it counting sleet as rain because otherwise it makes no sense with the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said: For that to happen the primary would have to go into the great lakes and the secondary hug the coast or not develop at all and precip somehow doesn't arrive until late in the day on Sunday since it will be like 10 degrees Sunday morning. correct the only way this storm truly busts is if it suppresses south. If not, something dramatically would have to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: We saw how much mixing the CMC showed on the 12z run and Euro brought in mixing early Sunday afternoon, so this ICON run isn't something new. We're trending in that direction. Hopefully our major snowstorm won't fall apart. We will get a front end dump due to the arctic air in place, but it wouldn't be a shock if it's just a mediocre 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 dump before mixing like we've seen many times in the past. Of course the big amounts are very possible too -- a long way to go with this. we are getting spoiled already...had some piddly events, everyone was mostly ok with it after last year, and now feeling let down that there might just be a nasty storm that could be a few inches of snow and sleet, when in other winters we'd kill for that. i'm no fan of sleet, but on top of snow with some cold, it can look wintry for awhile. we are too far from game time to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model. wheres the mixing colors ? just snow and rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just sayin': you don't want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Never ends well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, NEG NAO said: wheres the mixing colors ? just snow and rain ? Icon doesn't show sleet or ice on Tidbits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, North and West said: Obviously the only place we should care about is the North and West homestead. . Sometimes I wonder why I venture out of our homeland. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 This doesn’t look accurate to me. I think it’s a crappy output from a crappy model. You have 2m temps in the teens in VA and Eastern PA where it’s showing rain.Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGeek2025 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 GFS rolling.... please hold serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, TJW014 said: Just sayin': you don't want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Never ends well. Go back here: NYC was in the bullseye a week out. Wound up being a record producing snowstorm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, TJW014 said: Icon doesn't show sleet or ice on Tidbits Mr. Cowan should work on changing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: wheres the mixing colors ? just snow and rain ? Pivotal weather shows freezing rain but I have a hard time believing it with a 1035mb low over Quebec and a weak surface low off the VA Capes. Primary low dies over West Virginia. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, TJW014 said: Just sayin': you don't want to be in the bullseye 4-5 days out. Never ends well. Except in the this case the bullseye is from Northern Virginia to I90 so theres a lot of wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: thats why I posted this little gem of a link - Snow and ice storm, March 4-6, 2001 - Storm Summary mass hysteria - all milk and bread sold out for next to nothing in accumulation The March 2001 nightmare. Some members probably have no recollection. Others might not have been born yet. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 242 AM EST SAT MAR 3 2001 WL GO AHD AND ISSUE WSW FOR ENTIRE FA FOR 3D PD. AVN/ECMWF CONSISTANT AND SHOWG MAJOR LO PRES EFFECTG FA SUN AFTN THRU AT LEAST TUE MRNG. THINKG IN XS OF A FT OF SNW...ALNG WITH 25 TO 30 MPH WNDS...IE NR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS...SUN NGT THRU TUE MRNG. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE STRNGST STM SINCE THE JAN 96 BLIZZARD. THE ETA AND NGM HAVE COME OVR TO THE AVN/ECMWF SOLN AS WELL AS THE NOGAPS. THE CANADIAN AND UKMET STILL SHOWG A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. BUT IF THE SYSTEM GOES VERTICAL...AS IT SEEMS IT WL NOW...IT WL STALL BTWN DELMARVA AND CAPE COD...AND CUD HAMMER US THRU TUE MRNG. AM CONFIDENT ENUF THAT WE WILL GET SOMETHING THUS WL GO AHD AND PULL THE TRIGGR ON THE WSW. ON THE MARINE...THINKG WE CUD GET CSTL FLOODG PROBLMS AT TIMES OF HI TIDE...BEGNG SUN NGT. THATS STILL 4TH PD...AND WL NOT ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH ATTM. BUT ONE WL PROBLY BE ISSUED THIS AFTNS PCKG. WRKZFP IN AWIPS BY 3.5 AM. ZNS WIBIS BTW 4 AND 4.5 AM. ON THE MARINE...WL CONTINUE MENTION OF GLS SUN NGT ON. PROBLY BE UP TO SCA SUN AFTN. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 230 PM EST SAT MAR 3 2001 DISC: SNOW DEVLPNG DURING SUN AFTN AND WL GET HVY FROM SUN NIGHT THRU MON AND BEYOND. WL ISSUE A CSTL FLD WATCH WITH THIS PACKAGE. WILL HOLD OFF AN GO WITH THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NOW. EVE/MID CREW WILL HAVE TO UP TO A WARNING. ONLY PROBLEM WITH FCST IS...WL OUR ERN L.I. ZONES MIX WITH SOME SLEET AT TIMES. FOR NOW DID MENTION THE THE MIX COMING IN DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 220 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001 CURRENT MDLS PUSHG A BIT WRMR BDLRY AIR INTO FA ON MON. EVEN SO DOES NOT CHG MY THINKG ON PTYPE. IT WL BE SNW...WET SNW...PERHAPS MIXG WITH A BIT OF SLEET DURG THE DAY MON. LO MOVES OFF DELMARVA MON MRNG...IT GOES AS FAR N AS ITS GOING TO BTW 00Z-06Z TUE. THN RETROGRADES SWD TUE MRNG. THEN BEGINS MOVG EWD TUE AFTN. THINKG SNW TAPERS OFF TO SHSN BEFORE ENDG LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN TUE. THINKG IT WL BE A WET SNW...PEHAPS A 5 TO 1 RATIO CSTS AND 1 TO 8 INLND. EVEN SO WITH 2 PLUS INCHES OF LIQ EQV...TRANSLATES TO 10 TO 18 IN. PLACES INLND WL SEE 2 PLUS FT OF SNW. THINKG THAT ANY WARMG WL BE OFFSET BY EVAP COOLG. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 940 AM EST SUN MAR 4 2001 CURRENT MDLS PUSHG A BIT WRMR BDLRY AIR INTO FA ON MON. EVEN SO DOES NOT CHG MY THINKG ON PTYPE. IT WL BE WET SNW...BCMG SLEET MON NGT IN STG ERLY WND. LO MOVES OFF DELMARVA MON MRNG...IT GOES AS FAR N AS ITS GOING TO BTW 00Z-06Z TUE. THN RETROGRADES SWD TUE MRNG. THEN BEGINS MOVG EWD TUE AFTN. THINKG SNW TAPERS OFF TO SHSN BEFORE ENDG LATE MRNG/ERLY AFTN TUE. PREV FCST LOOKS GOOD INCLUDING TOTAL SNWFALL SO LITTLE IF ANY CHGS FORESEEN AT THIS TIME. BIG QUESTION REMAINS ON JUST HOW MILD COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL BECOME AND THUS HOW MUCH SNOWFALL AMTS WILL BE HELD DOWN. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 300 AM EST MON MAR 5 2001 PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MDL RUN BTN ETA AND AVN...BOTH ALF AND AT SFC. SFC LO CNTR NR THE VA CST TO MOV SLOLY NE TDY AND TNGT...GETTING ABREAST OF THE FCST AREA AFT MIDN...THEN RETROGRADING AND ESSENTIALLY DOING A LOOP TO THE SW TUE BFR HEADING OUT TO SEA TUE NGT AND WED. PCPN HAS BEEN SLO TO GET GOING AS THE LO BCMS MORE ORGANIZED. SOME WRMR AIR WORKING IN ALF HAS RESULTED IN SLEET AND FRZG RAIN MXG IN WITH THE LGT SNW THUS FAR...SPCLY NR THE CST. HWVR AS THE LO CNTR MOVS FTHR OFF THE CST THIS MRNG THEN TURNS NE THIS AFTN...DRAWING COLDER AIR BCK IN...THE MXD PCPN WL CHG TO SNW THRUOUT THE RGN. AT THIS POINT WL STICK WITH THE CURRENT FCST OF 8 TO 14 INCHES OF SNW NR THE CST AND 1 TO 2 FT INLD. HWVR WITH THE LO CNTR DVLPG A BIT TOO FAR N...AND EVENTUALLY RMNG NR OUR AREA FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENT...AM THINKING THAT IF A CHG NEEDS TO BE MADE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES IT WOULD BE TO REDUCE THE TOTALS A BIT...SPCLY NR THE CST...UNLESS WE PICK UP A LOT OF SNW ON THE BCKSIDE. BUT WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LENGTH OF TIME IT WL SNW...WL NOT TAMPER WITH THE AMTS NOW. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1005 AM EST MON MAR 5 2001 WILL UPDATE ZONES ASAP. LARGE WARM LAYER AS SEEN ON MORNING SOUNDING. TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT NEAR THE COAST...SO AM LOOKING AT RAIN FOR A PART OF THIS AFTERNOON. SLEET EVEN BEING REPORTED WELL INLAND. WILL LOWER OR DROP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DO HAVE A CONCERN ON NEW FORECAST PATH OF SURFACE LOW...BUT MORE ON THAT LATER. AM CONCERNED ABOUT SIGNIFICANT QPFS REMAINING JUST TO OUR NORTH ON WRAP AROUND AND IN BANDS AS LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 235 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001 WESTERN SECTIONS (INCLUDING NYC) STARTING TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES. HEAVIEST PRECIP NOW OVER EASTERN ZONES. MODELS SIMILAR WITH POSITIONING OF LOW THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SOME DIFFERENCES TUESDAY. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ETA BRINGS THE MAJORITY OF THE QPF TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE SFC LOW MOVES VERY CLOSE TO LI...WHICH RESULTS IN TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT IN THE MID AND UPPER LAYERS FOR ANY HEAVIER QPF AMOUNTS. I LIKE THE AVN LOOK BETTER AS WRAP AROUND AND PLENTY OF UVM OCCURS FROM NE TO SW FROM ROUGHLY BOS VCNTY INTO SOUTHERN CT. THIS OCCURS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...THEN CATEGORICAL SNOW CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LIGHTENS UP AS UPPER SUPPORT AND SFC LOW PULLS FINALLY TO THE EAST. IN THE SHORT TERM...18Z SOUNDING SHOWS TOO MUCH WARM AIR AROUND H8 TO OVERCOME...EVEN WITH HEAVY PRECIP APPROACHING. DYNAMIC COOLING WILL NOT OVERCOME THIS WARM LAYER FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. FURTHER WEST...ANY MIXTURE SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW QUICKLY BEFORE 00Z. EAST ZONES WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 735 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001 SHORT TERM DISC: AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS CT AND LONG ISLAND. THE LTST LOOP OF RADAR IMAGES SHOWED ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRECIP FIELD ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND/S SOUTHERN FORK. WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW WITH BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE TO WRAP-AROUND THE INTENSE OFFSHORE LOW. SNOW CONTS TO FALL AT THE RATE OF ARND 1 INCH PER HOUR. THE LTST OKX SOUNDING SHOWS TEMPS BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 200 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001 SHORT RANGE DISC: WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW...WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW CONT TO WRAP-ARND A 981 MB LOW NEAR BOUY 44008 AT 05Z. AT 06Z...9.1 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN MEASURED AT OKX. IN GENERAL... SNOWFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU AT LEAST 09Z AS A MID AND UPPER LVL DRY SLOT CONTS TO WRAP WESTWARD ACRS CT. MEDIUM RANGE DISC: AS STATED IN NCEP/S MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISC...THE ETA AND NGM MDLS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER EAST...CLOSER TO THE AVN SOLN...FOR LOOPING THE LOW BACK TWD THE SOUTHWEST. THE ETA AND NGM TRACK THE LOW BACK TWD 71W LONGITUDE WHILE THE AVN TRACKS THE LOW ALONG 69W LONGITUDE. IN EITHER CASE...STG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONT AS NW WINDS BACK TWD THE NORTH. AS FAR AS PRECIP AND OUR QPF...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AS THE STG UPPER LVL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION. THE GREATEST LIFT OCCURS FM 12Z TO 21Z...WHEN WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW WITH EMBEDDED BANDS OF MODERATE SNOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION. I BELIEVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW...WILL OCCUR ACRS CT AND LONG ISLAND...CLOSER TO THE LOW/S PATH...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD FALL. FURTHER WEST...AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 330 AM EST WED MAR 7 2001 DISC: AS OF EARLY ON THE SHIFT THERE STILL WERE SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE FA. THIS WAS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP STACKED LOW PRESS WHICH WAS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SW. THE SFC AND H5 LOWS WERE IN THE SAME POSITION AND LOOKING AT THE IR LOOP STREAMS OF PCPN WERE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW. THEY SHD END BEFORE FCST IS PUBLISHED AND WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN THE ZONES. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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