1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[TellicoWx]

On lunch, but looked back at old photos. Took a pic of my little girl in Madisonville with trees down behind her and everything coated in about .25" of ice...timestamp says Feb 18, 2015. This setup has been reminding me of it for several days. Large part of county lost power for almost a week. It really stands out now, due to same wording was used then, as MRX is using now for Monroe Co. (We were excluded then from Ice Storm Warning and alot of residents let their guard down). There is a ridge between Tellico and Madisonville that seems to bank the downslope winds back toward Tellico...prolongs the cold air retreat NW of there. Forecast all the way until the event started was WWA (less than 0.10"). CAMs resolution doesn't pick this ridge up well...I know of their current projection map, they seem to have forgot this. Hopefully I'm wrong.

[Scottie16]

The RAP is an absolute crusher ice storm for all of Tennessee except one county in Southern Middle.  Knoxville is bullseyed with 1.46 inches of qpf as zr. 

Not fairly confident in any model but the RAP did forecast the storm in 24 while others where out to lunch.


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[ShawnEastTN]

@TellicoWx

"On lunch, but looked back at old photos. Took a pic of my little girl in Madisonville with trees down behind her and everything coated in about .25" of ice...timestamp says Feb 18, 2015. This setup has been reminding me of it for several days. Large part of county lost power for almost a week. It really stands out now, due to same wording was used then, as MRX is using now for Monroe Co. (We were excluded then from Ice Storm Warning and alot of residents let their guard down). There is a ridge between Tellico and Madisonville that seems to bank the downslope winds back toward Tellico...prolongs the cold air retreat NW of there. Forecast all the way until the event started was WWA (less than 0.10"). CAMs resolution doesn't pick this ridge up well...I know of their current projection map, they seem to have forgot this. Hopefully I'm wrong."


Yeah they really should have included NW Monroe in the warning for sure. It's interesting you mentioned 2015 I remember that storm well I think if I remember it correctly it came on the heels of a snow or it snowed after by a few days. For me it was only about a quarter inch and it took down 4 pine trees on my property, and I was without power for a few days. Though there were people just a few miles away that it took a week to restore power. It's incredible how much damage just quarter inch can do especially with pine and cedar trees. Once coated even light breezes get them cracking and uprooting.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Scottie16]

On lunch, but looked back at old photos. Took a pic of my little girl in Madisonville with trees down behind her and everything coated in about .25" of ice...timestamp says Feb 18, 2015. This setup has been reminding me of it for several days. Large part of county lost power for almost a week. It really stands out now, due to same wording was used then, as MRX is using now for Monroe Co. (We were excluded then from Ice Storm Warning and alot of residents let their guard down). There is a ridge between Tellico and Madisonville that seems to bank the downslope winds back toward Tellico...prolongs the cold air retreat NW of there. Forecast all the way until the event started was WWA (less than 0.10"). CAMs resolution doesn't pick this ridge up well...I know of their current projection map, they seem to have forgot this. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Well written!


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[jaxjagman]

16 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Bigger problem for North Georgia.

In spring (when I wanna chase) it curls around and stabilizes everything. In winter the warm nose usually wins. 

Hey @jaxjagmanwe do have Day 3 Marginal in South Bama and text mentions tornadoes!

This could actually be what the GFS is showing.Where it stalls or slowly moves Sun the LP down into Cen Al,with convection down south of it,plus convection could even pull the LP further South than what the models are showing,but probably one of the reasons why you see the Euro showing this LLJ 60-70KTS along the TN/AL border and the GFS doesnt ,not saying this is a big game changer.Its a different set up,if the  LP was towards the GOM,it would be robbing the moisture flux

[jaxjagman]

 Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the
   central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue
   to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft
   will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded
   perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being
   consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this
   shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift
   east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore
   of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong
   arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS.
   Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability
   and some potential for strong to severe storms.

   ...Gulf Coast...
   As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing
   shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface
   dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into
   southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface
   warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the
   advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening
   boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day
   across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. 

   Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be
   favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~
   500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a
   risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the
   boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the
   prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The
   cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe
   risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern
   CONUS.

[jaxjagman]

16 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

This could actually be what the GFS is showing.Where it stalls or slowly moves Sun the LP down into Cen Al,with convection down south of it,plus convection could even pull the LP further South than what the models are showing,but probably one of the reasons why you see the Euro showing this LLJ 60-70KTS along the TN/AL border and the GFS doesnt ,not saying this is a big game changer.Its a different set up,if the  LP was towards the GOM,it would be robbing the moisture flux

I posted day 2 just because Day2 seems more important sorta speaking

[WishingForWarmWeather]

1 hour ago, tnweathernut said:

I'll be keeping you northern middle TN guys in my thoughts while you are in the upper teens to mid 20's and collecting ICE for hours on end.   I'm heading to Walgreens to grab some sunscreen for when the downslope dries me out and pushes me into the 50s on Sunday...  :-)

 

nooooo. Clarksville here, reading this while gathering last minute supplies at Walgreens as well but I’m getting power banks. 

[GBOVolz]

Yeah the model ice forecasts are not great this set-up. One has to manually look at QPF and dissect which of those periods are below freezing. I get lower ice in Chatty than NWS. I get higher Knox northeast. Lee side foothills downslope? I give up!

I have been trying to figure that out myself by assuming a couple inches of snow, sleet and freezing rain. I’m guessing somewhere between 1 inch and 1.25 inches of pure rain.


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[GBOVolz]

 
nooooo. Clarksville here, reading this while gathering last minute supplies at Walgreens as well but I’m getting power banks. 

How close have you been to the tornadoes the last several year?


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[GBOVolz]

What really stinks about this system, other than the obvious (lol)…. Is we desperately need rain and there’s a good chance we’re gonna lose out on probably half of it never touching the ground.


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[Tucker1027]

This thing trends 15 miles south Chattanooga is in a world of hurt….


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[Mrwolf1972]

Hrr is holding the temps at 31 a long time for cental valley

[Tucker1027]

18z HRRR ups Ice totals up a tick


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[Mrwolf1972]

Loudon and knox County bullseye for ice

[John1122]

The HRRR crushes the 75 corridor from Loudon County up to my area.

[John1122]

Mid and western areas are just a disaster area most likely if it's correct.

[John1122]

Of course the HRRR looks like it has some weird low that goes from the Apps to the midstate.

[GBOVolz]

Of course the HRRR looks like it has some weird low that goes from the Apps to the midstate.

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[AMZ8990]

17 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Of course the HRRR looks like it has some weird low that goes from the Apps to the midstate.

 

Yeah it definitely has its biases -winds, surface processes, complex terrain.  It’s Great in the short range 0-6hrs, especially on severe stuff but past hour 18 it can get weird 

[GBOVolz]

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My gif didn’t gif


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[Stovepipe]

HRRR shows 2 inches of snow for Knox followed by an inch of ice prior to hitting 33 and going full rain.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAM looks a bit south at 18z:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Or maybe just colder 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Here is what I was looking at when I made the south call:

[Jed33]

Definitely south of where it had been the 12k is too

[Daniel Boone]

12 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NAM looks a bit south at 18z:

Yeah, sleet snow line shifting South as well. Now has Snow still for as far South as the Kentucky,VA, WVA Border at 03Z Sunday. About 20 Statute Miles South from where 12Z had it. 546 DM shifted a few Miles SW.

[jaxjagman]

Son went to fill his car up after i told him,he said 7-11 and Krogers had no gas..lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Son went to fill his car up after i told him,he said 7-11 and Krogers had no gas..lol

wow.

If y'all haven't had the front pass by in East TN yet, get ready. That N/NW wind has a bite. 

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NAM looks a bit south at 18z:

FWIW...I think the 3K NAM has this nailed.