1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Matthew70]

2 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Source? That doesn't align with the Winter Storm Warning language for Davidson County. 

Let me go find it.  It was definitely the Nashville weather services graphic because it had their marks on it. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

Latest GFS is mostly sleet. Could be room for a surprise.

[jdpilot]

10 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

That's a good question.  Temps are supposed to be in the teens and low 20's for a long duration.

I think it’s because an Ice Storm Warning is issued when freezing rain is the predominant type of forecasted precipitation. In this case, Nashville still falls within the Winter Storm Warning criteria, which is any of the following: 

• Heavy Snow: Accumulations of 3 inches or more in 12 hours, or 4 inches or more in 24 hours.
• Sleet: Accumulations of 1/2 inch or greater are expected.
• Freezing Rain (Ice): Accumulations of 1/4 inch or greater (this may also trigger a specific Ice Storm Warning).
• Combination of Hazards: At least 2 inches of snow combined with any accumulation of sleet and/or ice (freezing rain). 

[Matthew70]

Updated.  The one I saw earlier was time stamped around 1.

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

Updated.  The one I saw earlier was time stamped around 1.

That looks to follow most of the modeling I have seen 

[Matthew70]

Interesting 

[Math/Met]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

So mountain waves are not really seeking corridors like gaps.  @Math/Met - bat signal for an explanation.  My understanding has always been that these are places where the winds out of the SE hit the mountains almost at a 90 degree angle, are forced to compress on the ridges which speeds them up at the top - like a wave coming into the beach.  There probably is a component where they are hitting the lower points on high ridges.  Basically works like a compressor.  The ridge has to be the right slope for this to work on both sides of the mountain in order to allow the winds to come across smoothly and race down the other side.  If the beach is too steep...not great waves.  Needs to move from deep to shallow water at a certain rate(sharp but smooth) in order to create big waves.  The only thing with this...the wave rushes down the other side of a mountain.  Just a few places in the world which can do what Camp Creek does.

I hate I missed this discussion earlier. I love these terrain related topics and good contributions by everyone.  I'm not going to pretend to know exactly what the models might be showing there. I will say that there are times during CAD situations where the southeasterly flow gets blocked at Camp Creek. The surface wind can stay light and even northerly at the surface at the CC tower. At the same time, winds can be southeast at 20-30 mph in the Nolichuckey/St. James area (only a few miles away from CC) as flow gets squeezed through the French Broad River valley. So not mountain waves in that situation, but air trying to take the path of least resistance. This typically occurs when the LLJ builds in from the south and the core of strongest winds stay mostly south of the area. It definitely happens, but I've never actually noticed a drop in temperature from it...because there is still a bit of downslope involved as air leaves the gap. Guess that's a long way of saying that I really don't know how that will work out compared to what the hi-res models show.  Will be interesting to watch though.

[Matthew70]

21 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Source? That doesn't align with the Winter Storm Warning language for Davidson County. 

Found it.

 

 

[*Flash*]

7 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Interesting 

Looks to me they should just focus on Florida. 

[*Flash*]

18 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

 

18 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Found it.

Sheesh. They are updating frequently today!

[benjammin]

Those are some interesting ranges: 1-7. Way to narrow it down.

Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Bigbald]

9 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Interesting 

When all else fails phone Orlando

[Matthew70]

4 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Looks to me they should just focus on Florida. 

Agree.  What was it that Jeff said.  Click bait.  

[Silas Lang]

How I am feeling about the trends on the 18z GFS: 

[Math/Met]

Also, I want to clear up any confusion since there has been some speculation. I don't work for MRX. They have done much better job in recent years on mountain waves, so credit goes to them on those discussions.

[Tucker1027]

EURO is running... do we keep the hope or go to sleep early tonight??   

[Matthew70]

7 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Looks to me they should just focus on Florida. 

Imagine TN forecasters advising FL on hurricanes.  Lol. 

[WishingForWarmWeather]

7 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Found it.

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Sheesh. They are updating frequently today!

I think it’s bc one is the forecast and one is the “experimental probabilistic” model or something like that. 
 

they should make a more clear distinction between the two

[Matthew70]

1 minute ago, Tucker1027 said:

EURO is running... do we keep the hope or go to sleep early tonight??   

Euro stepping in after the GFS pulls us back in 

 

[Mrwolf1972]

Hp is 1053 so not weak

[fountainguy97]

12 minutes ago, Math/Met said:

Also, I want to clear up any confusion since there has been some speculation. I don't work for MRX. They have done much better job in recent years on mountain waves, so credit goes to them on those discussions.

Sounds suspiciously like what an undercover MRX met would say.... 

[Mrwolf1972]

Euro has no change still warm.as.ever

[Matthew70]

[Brocksterdanza]

Euro doesn’t look like it budged much… at this point, do you think we see an upgrade to a WSW or ISW for the valley?


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[Scottie16]

Gooop!


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[Scottie16]

Euro doesn’t look like it budged much… at this point, do you think we see an upgrade to a WSW or ISW for the valley?


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ISW at this moment.


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[Mrwolf1972]

Euro lp cuts state in half again like the Nam keeps showing 

[Scottie16]

Also, I want to clear up any confusion since there has been some speculation. I don't work for MRX. They have done much better job in recent years on mountain waves, so credit goes to them on those discussions.

Sus


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[Brocksterdanza]

ISW at this moment.


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Kinda what I was thinking. I would rather have 5ft of snow vs 1/2 inch of ice.


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[fountainguy97]

3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Live shot of the 18z GFS.