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1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

AMZ8990

By AMZ8990,
in Tennessee Valley

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Holston_River_Rambler
Holston_River_Rambler

My current take: The players:   The setting: the game: All in motion on the Euro       Comparison:   Euro trend:

Reb
Reb
John1122
John1122

I feel like this is a trap. I'm having 2017 ptsd from when the Euro showed 30 inches imby 48 hours out, and I ended up with two inches. 

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AMZ8990

AMZ8990

Posted
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Posted

Winter Storm Warning 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1011 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-
112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-
240-241-313-340-341-231200-
/O.UPG.KLZK.WS.A.0001.260123T1800Z-260125T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLZK.WS.W.0001.260123T1800Z-260126T0000Z/
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot
Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-
Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-Southeast Van Buren
County-Western and Northern Logan County-Northern Scott County-
Northwest Yell County-Polk County Lower Elevations-Central and
Eastern Montgomery County-Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton
County Lower Elevations-Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-Southern and Eastern Logan
County-Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-Northern Montgomery County
Higher Elevations-Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County
Higher Elevations-Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Including the cities of Nogo, Waldron, Clarksville, Mansfield,
Western Grove, Marshall, Oark, Benton, Conway, De Valls Bluff,
Ola, Hartley, Acorn, Lonoke, Little Rock, Scotland, Pine Bluff,
Hampton, Attica, Cherokee Village, Russellville, Kingsland,
McGehee, Oxford, Augusta, Cave City, Mountain View, Mammoth
Spring, Sheridan, Warren, Des Arc, Plainview, Hatfield,
Botkinburg, Coal Hill, Dardanelle, Heber Springs, Bull Shoals,
Norman, Pindall, Arbaugh, Mountain Home, Calico Rock, Harrison,
Hardy, Beebe, Rich Mountain, Melbourne, Dennard, Mountain Fork,
Paris, Ozone, McCrory, Arkadelphia, Morrilton, Rison,
Caulksville, Waveland, Monticello, Hector, Stuttgart, Bryant,
Murfreesboro, Searcy, Subiaco, Flippin, Nunley, Mount Ida,
Grannis, Ponca, Star City, Y City, Clinton, Gould, Camden,
Shirley, Boxley, Walnut Ridge, Mena, Yellville, Atkins, Big Fork,
Saint Joe, Clarendon, Gilbert, Havana, Pocahontas, Tilly, Cotton
Plant, Blue Mountain, Story, Malvern, Horseshoe Bend, Batesville,
Hot Springs, Damascus, Dumas, Cabot, Thornton, Newport, De Witt,
Hoxie, Hartman, Leslie, Fordyce, Knoxville, London, Danville,
Perryville, Deer, North Little Rock, Ash Flat, Sugar Grove,
Brinkley, Pelsor, Mount Magazine, Summit, Boles, Jasper,
Fairfield Bay, Albert, Booneville, Hazen, and Glenwood
1011 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and some
  sleet accumulations between 4 and 10 inches across northern
  sections...sleet and some snow accumulation of 1 to 4 inches over
  central sections...and sleet and ice accumulations around one to
  three quarters of an inch across far southern and southeast
  sections.

* WHERE...Portions of central, eastern, north central, southeast,
  southwest, and western Arkansas.

* WHEN...From noon Friday to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Expect power outages and tree
  damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions
across Arkansas can be found at www.idrivearkansas.com.

&&

$$

 

Extreme Cold Watch 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
553 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341-222200-
/O.CAN.KLZK.FG.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-260122T1400Z/
/O.CON.KLZK.EC.A.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T1800Z/
Sharp-Randolph-Independence-Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-
Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-
Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-Southeast Van Buren
County-Western and Northern Logan County-Northern Scott County-
Northwest Yell County-Polk County Lower Elevations-Central and
Eastern Montgomery County-Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-Northern Montgomery County
Higher Elevations-Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Including the cities of Little Rock, Rich Mountain, Gould,
Newport, Hatfield, Nunley, Thornton, Albert, Batesville, Hazen,
Augusta, Clarksville, Monticello, Coal Hill, Sheridan, Hector,
Dumas, Y City, North Little Rock, Fordyce, McCrory, Murfreesboro,
Bryant, Knoxville, Cotton Plant, Mena, Hoxie, Warren, Scotland,
Lonoke, Clarendon, Walnut Ridge, Hampton, Hartman, Pine Bluff,
Conway, Norman, Subiaco, De Witt, Danville, Star City, Waldron,
Hot Springs, Clinton, Des Arc, Waveland, Mountain Fork,
Mansfield, Hartley, Blue Mountain, Hardy, Heber Springs, Boles,
Benton, Mount Ida, Glenwood, Shirley, Russellville, Caulksville,
Malvern, Sugar Grove, Perryville, Stuttgart, Morrilton, Searcy,
Story, Ola, Camden, Mount Magazine, De Valls Bluff, Pocahontas,
Havana, Beebe, Grannis, Plainview, Ash Flat, Fairfield Bay,
Kingsland, Arkadelphia, Rison, Dardanelle, Atkins, Cave City,
Brinkley, London, McGehee, Attica, Booneville, Paris, Cabot, Big
Fork, Acorn, and Damascus
553 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills as low as as low as 5 to 0
  degrees possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, eastern, north central, southeast,
  southwest, and western Arkansas.

* WHEN...From late Friday night through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...The cold wind chills as low as 10 below zero could
  result in hypothermia if precautions are not taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Dress in layers including a hat, face mask, and gloves if you must
go outside.

Make frequent checks on older family, friends, and neighbors. Ensure
portable heaters are used correctly. Do not use generators or grills
inside.

Monitor the latest forecasts and warnings for updates.

&&

$$

Winter Storm Warnings now up in Arkansas

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

I have a feeling this thing is going to throw us some curve balls in the next 24/36 hours. 

 

 

The 12z AIFS blunts the warm nose and cuts 2-3 degree off the north end of the in regards to temps.  I didn't look at the rest of the eastern valley.  Makes me wonder if the warm nose gets the northern valley above freezing w/ these trends.

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Carvers Gap

Carvers Gap

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS won't back off me getting 8-12 inches of snow and MRX must love it because they keep saying Kentucky border counties are likely to stay mostly snow. Snow here did increase on every model compared to last night, so far at 12z.

I will never know John is on the board w/ out the old background!   The AIFS flirted w/ keeping border counties below freezing.  The nose had gotten your temps to 37.  12z now has the heigh of the storm at 35.  I could see that.

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*Flash*

*Flash*

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z AIFS blunts the warm nose and cuts 2-3 degree off the north end of the in regards to temps.  I didn't look at the rest of the eastern valley.  Makes me wonder if the warm nose gets the northern valley above freezing w/ these trends.

I imagine the CAMS might start to show the low track over the plateau or take a Miller B approach to the coast. Hopefully the thermal truth is somewhere between the Euro/CMC/NAM and the GFS with a deeper low and a stronger high overhead.

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Memphis just dropped the hammer in their EM briefing. I don't think it's public for North Mississippi ice totals. So I'll just share a Quebec flag (1998 ice storm). If this comes even close to verifying, you're reading my last post of the event.

due to work. I believe things in Chattanooga will not get too bad. Mid South though, is going to be Hoth.

giphy.gif

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Ice storm warning for NW AL out from HUN

The impact section is :o

National Weather Service Huntsville AL 

1104 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

ALZ001>003-231715-
/O.UPG.KHUN.WS.A.0001.260124T0000Z-260126T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KHUN.IS.W.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T0000Z/
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-
Including the cities of Tuscumbia, Red Bay, Florence, Sheffield,
Muscle Shoals, and Russellville
1104 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations between one
  quarter of an inch to one inch.

* WHERE...Colbert, Franklin AL, and Lauderdale Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight Friday Night to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Significant ice accumulation on
  power lines and tree limbs may cause widespread and long-lasting
  power outages. Expect power outages that last more than a day and
  extensive tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible.
  Significant cold weather is expected after this winter weather, so
  any power outages may result in dangerous indoor temperatures.
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Tucker1027

Tucker1027

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Memphis just dropped the hammer in their EM briefing. I don't think it's public for North Mississippi ice totals. So I'll just share a Quebec flag (1998 ice storm). If this comes even close to verifying, you're reading my last post of the event.

due to work. I believe things in Chattanooga will not get too bad. Mid South though, is going to be Hoth.

giphy.gif

are they riding the ICON and GFS?? 

if so Chattanooga would get a good coating of ice 

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Tucker1027

Tucker1027

Posted
Posted

they went with WWA for NE Alabama.. 

  

Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
Including the cities of Town Creek, Arab, Athens, Cullman, Boaz,
Lynchburg, Estill Springs, Fayetteville, Sewanee, Decherd,
Scottsboro, Moulton, Guntersville, Winchester, Fort Payne,
Huntsville, Cowan, Rainsville, Decatur, and Albertville
1104 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6
PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up
  to one inch and ice accumulations between 0.05-0.10 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northeast, and northwest
  Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

 

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jaxjagman

jaxjagman

Posted
Posted 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1136 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

TNZ005>011-023>034-057-059>066-075-077>080-095-230900-
/O.UPG.KOHX.WS.A.0001.260124T0000Z-260126T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.W.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T0000Z/
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Hickman-Williamson-Maury-Marshall-
Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-Warren-
Grundy-Van Buren-Giles-
Including the cities of Nashville, Gordonsville, Livingston, New
Johnsonville, Dickson, Mount Juliet, Jamestown, Spencer,
Franklin, Gallatin, Byrdstown, Hendersonville, South Carthage,
Allardt, Sparta, Murfreesboro, Pulaski, Erin, Brentwood, La
Vergne, Gainesboro, Altamont, Smithville, Tennessee Ridge,
McEwen, Smyrna, Coalmont, Kingston Springs, Shelbyville,
Lafayette, Celina, Columbia, Ashland City, Manchester, Waverly,
Dover, Clarksville, Carthage, Woodbury, Springfield, Crossville,
Lewisburg, Lebanon, Tullahoma, McMinnville, Goodlettsville,
Cookeville, Hartsville, and Centerville
1136 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 2 and 8 inches and ice accumulations up to
  one quarter inch.
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Weatheriscool

Weatheriscool

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: 
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1136 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

TNZ005>011-023>034-057-059>066-075-077>080-095-230900-
/O.UPG.KOHX.WS.A.0001.260124T0000Z-260126T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.W.0001.260124T0600Z-260126T0000Z/
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Hickman-Williamson-Maury-Marshall-
Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-Warren-
Grundy-Van Buren-Giles-
Including the cities of Nashville, Gordonsville, Livingston, New
Johnsonville, Dickson, Mount Juliet, Jamestown, Spencer,
Franklin, Gallatin, Byrdstown, Hendersonville, South Carthage,
Allardt, Sparta, Murfreesboro, Pulaski, Erin, Brentwood, La
Vergne, Gainesboro, Altamont, Smithville, Tennessee Ridge,
McEwen, Smyrna, Coalmont, Kingston Springs, Shelbyville,
Lafayette, Celina, Columbia, Ashland City, Manchester, Waverly,
Dover, Clarksville, Carthage, Woodbury, Springfield, Crossville,
Lewisburg, Lebanon, Tullahoma, McMinnville, Goodlettsville,
Cookeville, Hartsville, and Centerville
1136 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations between 2 and 8 inches and ice accumulations up to
  one quarter inch.

Quarter inch of ice is nothing to play with either

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Pattern recognition is why I'm standing down Chattanooga. Yeah we'll get 1/10 to 1/4 inch ice, and hit Warning criteria, but that's not crippling at all.

Yeah I see the ICON wrap around the CAD, but even it eventually breaks for CHA. That can happen in spring to crush severe wx chances. Winter the warm nose usually wins out for Chatty. Even the GFS brings into CHA >32 deg.

26 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

are they riding the ICON and GFS?? 

if so Chattanooga would get a good coating of ice 

NBM and other ensembles are modest to moderate ice here. They all drop the Quebec hammer on the Mid South. Memphis to Nashville are a 50 mi path jog or sounding change away from major impacts too.

Finally the ol' 1/3 of liquid QPF (during sub-freezing temps) still works to forecast ice accretion. Checks out all of the above.

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