1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[WintryMixmaster]

2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

With the ice it's projecting for East Tennessee for essentially 24 hours from 12z Saturday to 12z Sunday that few hour time above freezing probably isn't even going to make much difference in all reality. That ice will be catastrophic as depicted. Verbatim many folks won't have power for a week.

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Well the GFS has consistently been the coldest model, and took this big jump north with the recon data, maybe that means this is the worst case scenario and the other models will have a quicker changeover to rain. CMC on the amped side of things has us at ZR for only about half as long which would make a big difference. I'm trying to sniff some hopium, I've given up on more than a light front end snow at best, just don't want to lose power before the deep freeze at this point

[ShawnEastTN]

Hopefully the trend continues until it is an all rain event and turns into the biggest model bust in history.

Yeah it's hard to pull for normal liquid rain but given a choice I'll take the warmest run of the Euro over that GFS run.

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[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Vol4Life said:

Looks like a lot of plain rain to me

Knoxville has 24 hours of frozen precip according to the WxBell algorithm.  Hour 69-83.  Hour 78-93 is ice.  Debatable whether that run would actually flip Knoxville rain just knowing how ZR behaves there from experience.  Having done the ice deal in Knoxville during the eary 90s(surprise ice storm that hit right as school started on maybe a Friday)....Knoxville can get stuck at freezing sometimes.  Either way...quick thump of snow, sleet, zr, and then rain for Knox.  Right around an inch of ZR for TYS and .60-.70 for TRI w/ TRI managing 2" on the front end, then zr, then wrap around snow to end w 6"...doubt that snow total holds.  North Georgia gets 2.44" of ZR.  SW TN gets the sleet hammer.  Chattanooga 1.11" of ice.

[Bigbald]

This is a tough one to watch go but it sure looks like a trend to end in significant rain up the valley, not sure anyone east tn will have snow to show by the end.

[BNAwx]

I’m not counting on it, but I’ve seen models shift collectively this close to an event both favorably and unfavorably.  Sometimes those shifts are pretty significant.  It’ll be interesting to see if better data makes a noticeable difference in the evolution of this storm.

[Carvers Gap]

0z GEM might have ticked one county north... pretty much the same look as it had at 12z.  Steady.  Icy.

[Matthew70]

Hopefully puts a dent in the droughts throughout the Midsouth & SE.

[housemtnTN]

Well crap.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, BNAwx said:

I’m not counting on it, but I’ve seen models shift collectively this close to an event both favorably and unfavorably.  Sometimes those shifts are pretty significant.  It’ll be interesting to see if better data makes a noticeable difference in the evolution of this storm.

Yes, especially when a feature in the STJ makes landfall or a northern vortex finale gets sampled well.  For now, it looks like the STJ is going to slam into a very cold area of hp.  Looks very icy.  Classic over-running setup w/ snow and sleet to lead out...and then another wave to follow.

[WintryMixmaster]

3 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

This is a tough one to watch go but it sure looks like a trend to end in significant rain up the valley, not sure anyone east tn will have snow to show by the end.

Gotta love single digit temps with a bare ground after a nice cold rain. On the plus side, the rug pull by the models happening over the course of a single model suite was better than watching it slowly slip away. And there's still plenty of winter to go

[Carvers Gap]

I should add that I pretty much gave up on snow for MBY at lunch.  I am fully aware I am tracking sleet and ice w/ a possible front end thump.  Hopefully ice amounts moderate.  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, WintryMixmaster said:

Gotta love single digit temps with a bare ground after a nice cold rain. On the plus side, the rug pull by the models happening over the course of a single model suite was better than watching it slowly slip away. And there's still plenty of winter to go

.3-.4" of ice accretion(using Jeff's 1/3 rule) for Knox on most modeling if not more.  Let's hope the lights stay on w/ that type of cold coming in.  Roads could be a mess.  Not having power is what we need to avoid.  We need it to trend to liquid.

[Hurricaneguy]

MRX gonna be hard adjusting that snow map tomorrow lol. I’m ready to track severe weather now. Screw winter

[WintryMixmaster]

Just now, Hurricaneguy said:

MRX gonna be hard adjusting that snow map tomorrow lol. I’m ready to track severe weather now. Screw winter

I really want to know what they were thinking with that snow map... I don't like to question people smarter than me, and the meteorologists there have forgotten more about weather than I'll ever know, but like, did someone fall into a coma 24 hours ago, wake up, and then hit "send" on that map without checking any recent models?

[Wulfer]

1 hour ago, Tucker1027 said:

ICON…

This screams trapped cold air in the valley which our in-house met said today.

The icon also handled today’s system the best 2-3 days out. (I know that doesn’t mean much m)

 

Been waiting on this!  I mean its a 1050 High some of the coldest air at the poles.

[Carvers Gap]

0z GEM and GFS maps....

 

[Daniel Boone]

Cincinnati is golden for a major Snowfall. Makes me think of that old Sitcom, WKRP in Cincinnati for some reason. Lol

[bearman]

We will see how things turn out.  All of us have all been here more times than not.  We all wish for the days when we just woke up as kids and to our surprise that muffled closed in feeling was surrounding our room, and we looked out and everything had changed. A whole new white world.  At least that is the way I remember it. If it doesn't t happen this time it will sooner or later.  Have a good nights sleep and maybe things will change for the better.

[John1122]

I hadn't looked at the GFS. It still managed to give me 10 inches. I'm 1000 percent sure it's wrong, but I'd be overjoyed with that. 

[WintryMixmaster]

Having the subtropical jet throwing moisture straight at a 1045 HP in southern Wisconsin and ending up with 0 inches of snow in the valley is like the weather equivalent of throwing a pick six on 1st and goal from the 1... we're just sitting there watching the warm nose run it back for a touchdown. The HP actually retreating northwest between hours 60 and 66 is a nice touch, like the QB chasing down the warm nose and giving up, lol

[Tucker1027]

I know the EURO is the EURO but it’s only model not East Tennessee Ice which I’m hoping for, but seems like the outlier at this point.


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[John1122]

In the craziest irony, Tennessee and North Carolina are the only two southern states that haven't had a huge anomalous winter storm the past two years. And even crazier, the Florida panhandle has had two. Warm noses kill us, but don't affect Florida. It's insane. 

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Tucker1027 said:

I know the EURO is the EURO but it’s only model not East Tennessee Ice which I’m hoping for, but seems like the outlier at this point.


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Yeah, the Euro is a nothing burger for the eastern half of the state. If it verified, I don't even think they'd need more than a brief winter weather advisory. 

[TellicoWx]

Hopefully no one has to use this chart, but just in case anyone ever needs it. Was designed for risk assessment to power infrastructure

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

Yeah, the Euro is a nothing burger for the eastern half of the state. If it verified, I don't even think they'd need more than a brief winter weather advisory. 

Its the slowest at arrival of precip. Looking at mby and the microclimate...the GEM has the most realistic temp response for what its worth...with way the temp advances off the Skyway.

[Save the itchy algae!]

Well my 24 hour self ban didn’t work. At this point may as well make the somewhat happy reminder at this point that even with colder surface temps freezing rain won’t accumulate if it’s coming down in moderate rates. So the euro might be picking up on this with its rain solution, even if it’s erroneous on the actual temp profile. I guess it depends on how much sleet there is for the rain to stick to at this point in the CV. This one hurts guys, but we need the rain..

[Scottie16]

Icon trending back our way ever so slightly.


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[Scottie16]

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[fountainguy97]

Models are looking good for the Eastern Valley. Manageable ice. And what does fall is heavy rain into near freezing temps so most would runoff. 
 

We need the rain. And even though I'm pretty much burnt out of tracking storms this winter there is still time. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Have to admit I'm surprised the GFS went to not even the triple phase at 6z, but a quadruple phase. If the Euro hadn't wavered on that, I would be less surprised. And yeah, I get it that the Euro's  surface depiction hasn't wavered much, but I'm talking about the phasing shortwaves. 

It's not totally clean, but it gets the job done.