1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Would be some all time record lows possibly in some places

I don't buy it, because I don't think we will have snowpack, but this would crush our all time record. Currently it is -10 (which has been tied three times).

[Weatheriscool]

1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Would be some all time record lows possibly in some places

yea, hoping that doesnt happen but if we have snowcover it certainly could 

[GBOVolz]

JMO, but it's probably easier to introduce the possibility of half snow, half ZR/sleet than go all the way to a full on ice storm changing to rain.  There's still plenty of time and allows them the room to move fully that way in a later update.

Completely agree. Let me rephrase by saying that I’m surprised they did not hold off a little longer after the next run comes out.


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[GBOVolz]

Looks like the euro AI has more separation between the northern Stream and the Baja low


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[John1122]

The Euro AI is a massive winter storm, over an inch of QPF and almost no one in Tennessee above freezing through 96, at 102 east Tn gets above freezing.

[John1122]

It's a massive ice storm for just about the whole state.

[jaxjagman]

We got cold like that in 1985,today

 

 

On January 21, 1985...Temperature at Nashville drops to -17, setting an all-time record low. Other record lows include Allardt (-27), Carthage (-17), Celina (-20), Centerville (-26), Columbia (-20), Cookeville (-22), Crossville (-21), Crossville (Experiment Station) (-25), Dickson (-23), Franklin (-21), Lebanon (3 W) (-20), Lewisburg (-20), Livingston (-25), Monteagle (-20), Mount Pleasant (-17), Neapolis (-23), Shelbyville (-20), Smithville (-24), and Woodbury (-28).

 

 

[GBOVolz]

It's a massive ice storm for just about the whole state.

We desperately need a thumbs down icon


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[Weatheriscool]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

It's a massive ice storm for just about the whole state.

That is no bueno 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Watching the PBP on southernwx and nothing but positive changes so far. 

Not sure how far it can go, but to tired to do a pbp here. I'll post gifs when the Euro gets far enough out. 

[GBOVolz]

Watching the PBP on southernwx and nothing but positive changes so far. 
Not sure how far it can go, but to tired to do a pbp here. I'll post gifs when the Euro gets far enough out. 

PBP?


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, GBOVolz said:

PBP?


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play by play as the Euro comes in 

[Bigbald]

Its only like 80 miles difference where the low starts to turn north between  the 12z gfs and 12z euro Ai.  That 80 miles from mobile to Florida has huge implications.

[Carvers Gap]

Hmmm.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Guess I'm just a glutton for punishment, shortwave differences between

12z and ------------------------------------------------------------------------> 6z

[Holston_River_Rambler]

The two shortwaves def. look less in sync than previous runs, but we'll see what that amounts to down the road. 

[WinterWonderland]

Novice here . . . when the models show a northern shift like we're seeing, does it sometimes shift southerly again? I'd love to see the models return to earlier yesterday's look but not sure the likelihood of that happening. 

I've been a long time member on this site and live in Oak Ridge, TN. Thank you to everyone here. I love that it's informative and not mean-spirited. 

[Tucker1027]

EURO looks like a whole county south out west. 

[Carvers Gap]

Gonna almost assuredly cut...but was much cooler to start that run.  Pretty big change in temp prior to roughly 65 hours - as in lower over the entire eastern half of the country.

[Carvers Gap]

Guessing run out moisture followed by a low which cuts just based on temps....I can see those pretty far out into the run on WxBell.  Just toggle over.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah it's got a surface low over the foothills of SE TN at hour 99

[Carvers Gap]

At 80, the Euro has 39 at TRI and 16 in NW Tenn....Similar to recent La Nina storms.  

[Weatheriscool]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

At 80, the Euro has 39 at TRI and 16 in NW Tenn....Similar to recent La Nina storms.  

So sounds like West and Middle are still getting the same crap? 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It runs the 850 low from Dallas to Cleveland 

[tnweathernut]

One thing I can say with a lot of confidence......  When we absolutely don't need a phase to happen, it will happen.  When we do need a phase it won't.  

[GBOVolz]

It runs the 850 low from Dallas to Cleveland 

My head hurts

[nrgjeff]

AIFS / Euro AI doesn't have a direct ice chart, but here is what I discern from QPF and time the sounding is ice for KCHA.

Might start as sleet but goes FZRA pretty quickly. Through Saturday night 1 to 1.5 inches QPF is over 1/3 inch ice and possibly a half inch ice accretion here. Anything greater than that (and it's definitely on the table) gets historic. 

Points to my northwest (Middle Tenn not necessary BNA) have over 2 inches of liquid rain locally 2.5. Some of that has to come as sleet. Still could be well over a half inch of FZRA with plenty of 3/4 inch reports. 

Question above, @WinterWonderland yeah the NAM is probably too far north. Euro path is stubborn though, and the GFS is trending that way. The jogs are usually 4-5 days out. We are within 3 days. Ice invasion is imminent. 

[GBOVolz]

One thing I can say with a lot of confidence......  When we absolutely don't need a phase to happen, it will happen.  When we do need a phase it won't.  

Someone asked last week about the northwest trend and I replied with…” it only trends northwest when we don’t want it to”


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[Coach B]

9 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Someone asked last week about the northwest trend and I replied with…” it only trends northwest when we don’t want it to”


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Correct! We needed it last year with the great Gulf Coast snowstorm. We were sitting pretty 5-7 days out just waiting for the northwest correction, but instead it trended south all the way to the Gulf. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro: