1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[Wurbus]

2 minutes ago, Bigbald said:

My interest in the 18z gfs is icon level.  The fall from grace of the gfs has been remarkable, what has happened?!

I think funding cuts at NWS is starting to affect it more and more.

[Scottie16]

GFS showing snow starting Friday


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[Reb]

2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

GFS showing snow starting Friday


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Also more suppressed vs 12z

[Wurbus]

I believe its the only model holding the Baja low back now. Whatever it spits out is probably not going to be correct

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIGFS has completely abandoned its amped solution - almost a pure slider now w/ even a secondary wave of over-running right behind it.  And right behind that...a clipper.

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Reb said:

Also more suppressed vs 12z

I think we are about to find out that models which were trying to crash a slp into a 1045 were maybe out to lunch.

[WintryMixmaster]

3 minutes ago, Reb said:

Also more suppressed vs 12z

ICON at the end of its range was more suppressed than 12z too

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, WintryMixmaster said:

ICON at the end of its range was more suppressed than 12z too

I sure was.  Not a trend we want to see north o I-40.  Any model now which is trying to cut west of the Apps is an outlier.  Models are quickly feeling the effects of a hp(albeit a bit weaker) which is exerting a lot of force.  I suspect the Euro will trend south...but eventually trend back north.  Suppression, in my mind, has always been an equal risk to the cutter scenario.  It makes much more sense.  That said, the GFS has been woeful this winter...and the ICON has been all over the place.  The 18z GEFS is probably more important for a few more runs.  

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

I believe its the only model holding the Baja low back now. Whatever it spits out is probably not going to be correct

I think you are right.  When the entire thing comes out, it can actually attack the big high.  Without that energy...it is forced well south.

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

I believe its the only model holding the Baja low back now. Whatever it spits out is probably not going to be correct

The 18z ICON does the same.  So, the models which end up with a suppressed solution....just cut off the Baja low for it to drift into oblivion.  When it kicks out...boom.

[Scottie16]

GFS has 20:1 ratios for East Tennessee.


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[Scottie16]

We are in that time frame where models lose the storm or “wobble” with solutions before picking it back up.


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[BuCoVaWx]

This storm has me nervous lol. Getting close to something good, but I fear I may be a bit too north. It's still early though. I think you Tennessee folks may be in for a nice treat!

[Scottie16]

This storm has me nervous lol. Getting close to something good, but I fear I may be a bit too north. It's still early though. I think you Tennessee folks may be in for a nice treat!

Not putting any stock into the GFS rn. It’s scored the lowest outta all the models.


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[John1122]

The GFS has zero support. Not from it's AI, not from it's ensembles, which are very wet. It's precip shield is almost 200 miles south of the GEFS through 120. 

[Scottie16]

The GFS has zero support. Not from it's AI, not from it's ensembles, which are very wet. It's precip shield is almost 200 miles south of the GEFS through 120. 

It’s good at picking up storms but not so good at trends. It’s in its goofy stage


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[Uncle Nasty]

The upper levels are very similar to the January 6-7, 1988 snowstorm.  If anyone wants to catch up to how that transpired, feel free to take a look at this video from back in the day....
 

Unfortunately, I missed that storm. I was in southern Cal on the baseball field. When I saw the national news and saw that Chattanooga got pounded, I was mad I missed it. I made up for it driving to Big Bear, but nothing is better than "home snow."

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[Matthew70]

Channel 2 here said the American model says hardly any snow is expected. That was what my brother texted me. 

[John1122]

GFS vs its ensembles.  Normally the ensembles are much drier than the Op. 

 

 

[tnweathernut]

In an overrunning situation…….  The precip field is normally further north than is being modeled from a few days out.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIFS is a major snow an ice storm for the Tennessee Valley region...end to end.

[Scottie16]

The 18z AIFS is a major snow an ice storm for the Tennessee Valley region...end to end.

Follows the Euro


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[Carvers Gap]

The 18z AIFS (entire run) buries portions of the forum...and I don't take that term lightly.  No idea if it is right, but wow.

[Mrwolf1972]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z AIFS (entire run) buries portions of the forum...and I don't take that term lightly.  No idea if it is right, but wow.

Any pics of totals

[TellicoWx]

Definitely took another step south...the ice totals south of 40 would be crazy if there was a map for it

[Weatheriscool]

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Definitely took another step south...the ice totals south of 40 would be crazy if there was a map for it

Looking like this may trend south of us in Nashville area

[TellicoWx]

Pivotal is 10:1 and has that output...would expect closer to 15:1

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Weatheriscool said:

Looking like this may trend south of us in Nashville area

I don't think so.

[Carvers Gap]

13 minutes ago, Mrwolf1972 said:

Any pics of totals

Most of that in the forum area is frozen.  Some of you might sneak above freezing for a bit.  Snow or ZR.  Trended south.   I threw in the both full run and storm clown map if you wanted it.   

 

[TellicoWx]

1 minute ago, Weatheriscool said:

Looking like this may trend south of us in Nashville area

AIFs is on the northern end, GFS on southern end...as @Carvers Gapsaid earlier today, the cone is shrinking each passing run