1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

[GBOVolz]

Zone area forecast for Seymour from MRX. Hang it on the wall.
 

.

[John1122]

I believe the MRX forecast is heavily GFS based.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

New WPC graphic:

 

from this site:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

 

 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

WPC extended Disco:

Model guidance is in pretty good agreement on the upper level pattern through the period, especially over the central and eastern U.S. under the broad upper trough. All model guidance shows Arctic air making it down to the Gulf and East Coasts, which will clash with southern stream energy to produce a potentially high impact winter storm across the southern tier. There are some southern stream differences among the models that may affect sensible weather.

The 06Z and 12Z GFS solutions were the only deterministic solutions still hanging on to a slower upper low lingering near Baja California into next week, while other guidance (including AI) has trended much more progressive with this feature. For this reason, the WPC forecast favored a faster solution with very limited influence from the GFS. A faster solution allows for increased moisture across the south-central U.S. ahead of the upper low with a broader precipitation footprint.

There is still a significant amount of uncertainty in the QPF forecast this weekend. Models have been trending northwards with the heavy precipitation axis, which is in line with what the AI guidance has been showing, so adjustments were made to the NBM to reflect these trends in the WPC forecast. The WPC forecast used a blend of the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/UKMET early in the period, then increased contributions from ensemble means through the second half of the period while decreasing the influence of the GFS.

[GBOVolz]

Is anyone else like me?…. When you have one massive run for a snowstorm, you kinda quit looking at the mods after that?


.

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Is anyone else like me?…. When you have one massive run for a snowstorm, you kinda quit looking at the mods after that?


.

There's usually only one direction they can go after it. I'll never forgive the Euro after 2017, but this would go a long way towards healing if it was remotely correct.

[Coach B]

1 hour ago, GBOVolz said:

I don’t know, but the tweet they made was just like 10 minutes ago. It may be that they’re avoiding today’s mods lol


.

I generally like those guys so I watched the latest video for his thoughts. He definitely believes it'll be well north. Heaviest snow north of the Ohio River and ice in Kentucky. Thinks the high is weakening and getting the banana look that will encourage the storm to cut. Used the late January 2009 storm as an example. Just said it was gut feeling and what climatological normally happens. Also, admitted he could be wrong and that he really want the snow.

[nrgjeff]

Looks like most NWS offices are up to near 40% chance of moderate impact - in line with the WPC charts above. Impressive that MRX talks like that Day 6.

I have to comment on BAMWX. I've heard they are also into natural gas. If one is eager to buy, gotta jawbone the other way to get sellers. See my signature - cynical as hell.

One thing I'm not cynical about - this system is very likely going to stay South. Too much cold. Too much HP. Too much trough aloft.

[WintryMixmaster]

5 minutes ago, GBOVolz said:

Is anyone else like me?…. When you have one massive run for a snowstorm, you kinda quit looking at the mods after that?


.

I'm setting an expectation of rain with minor snow accumulation and considering anything else a bonus so I don't get my hopes up. Mentally shifting everything 100-200 miles north when I see snowfall maps haha

[Hurricaneguy]

I tell myself every time models look solid this far out I won’t check again until at least three days out but I guarantee I’ll be looking again this evening lol 

[Daniel Boone]

16 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

.

Most are over the Tn Valley with some South with it. Maybe come up with a more likely solution between the GEFS , EPS and GEPS. 

[jaxjagman]

Reckon Nashville is gaining confidence

[GBOVolz]

Reckon Nashville is gaining confidence

There’s almost a 10 degree difference in my temps than there’s. That’s scary. Lol


.

[tnweathernut]

The upper levels are very similar to the January 6-7, 1988 snowstorm.  If anyone wants to catch up to how that transpired, feel free to take a look at this video from back in the day....

 

[jaxjagman]

=

[jaxjagman]

[Daniel Boone]

Just now, tnweathernut said:

The upper levels are very similar to the January 6-7, 1988 snowstorm.  If anyone wants to catch up to how that transpired, feel free to take a look at this video from back in the day....

 

They definitely are similar. Ratios were high with that Storm over Northern Forum Area. If Models are correct this one may have more Moisture. 

[John1122]

I knew MRX was riding heavy with the GFS as my area has less snow forecast and lower chances than others south of me. No idea which scenario shows me with nothing though, other than this graphic they just released. It's especially funny since WPC literally just released the update that they are essentially ignoring the GFS. 

 

[Daniel Boone]

34 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I believe the MRX forecast is heavily GFS based.

Sure looks it. They've told me they yse the NBM.

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Sure looks it. They've told me they yse the NBM.

The NBM seems to show the most likely and heaviest snow North of 40 into SE Kentucky and SWVa. The GFS and ICON blend, shifted south by 100-150 miles, would produce that image on the left. 

[Scottie16]

NAM has the Baja over California at 84


.

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The NBM seems to show the most likely and heaviest snow North of 40 into SE Kentucky and SWVa. The GFS and ICON blend, shifted south by 100-150 miles, would produce that image on the left. 

Exactly. Maybe it depends on who's working at the Time, lol. 

[Met1985]

30 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Looks like most NWS offices are up to near 40% chance of moderate impact - in line with the WPC charts above. Impressive that MRX talks like that Day 6.

I have to comment on BAMWX. I've heard they are also into natural gas. If one is eager to buy, gotta jawbone the other way to get sellers. See my signature - cynical as hell.

One thing I'm not cynical about - this system is very likely going to stay South. Too much cold. Too much HP. Too much trough aloft.

Yeah a lot of bullshit on the socials today. 

[John1122]

My wife's phone weather has went for it. She sent me this. 

 

It also shows 4-5 inches for the next period. 

[tnweathernut]

15 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

They definitely are similar. Ratios were high with that Storm over Northern Forum Area. If Models are correct this one may have more Moisture. 

Check the pattern at 500 and it's almost a dead ringer.

[dwagner88]

Not based on anything scientific, but Chattanooga has been severely overdue for an ice storm for many years. I do not get an overly snowy feeling with this one. I'm servicing my generator today.

[jaxjagman]

[housemtnTN]

I can't believe how quickly this system has garnered so much attention. I am a complete newb and still don't totally get it all but I'm happy as long as we get piles of snow. No thanks on the ice!

[Scottie16]

I can't believe how quickly this system has garnered so much attention. I am a complete newb and still don't totally get it all but I'm happy as long as we get piles of snow. No thanks on the ice!

Likes and clicks.


.

[Bigbald]

My interest in the 18z gfs is icon level.  The fall from grace of the gfs has been remarkable, what has happened?!