January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[winter_warlock]

Here's the 06z gfs AI model notice the 540 (mix) line stays just south of DC very nice run!!

 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Whatever it takes to get 20"+! 

Yup  me too !!

[JenkinsJinkies]

Today is the big test.

[WxUSAF]

Good morning weenies. 
 

People have been mentioning Feb 2014 at times for this storm. I don’t remember the synoptic setup, but I remember that beatdown of a WAA thump. Maybe this is a colder version? 
 

12” EPS mean is bonkers. 
 

Hitting NAM/RGEM range for storm start time with the 12z suite!

[winter_warlock]

AI GFS qpf..

[DDweatherman]

2014 is exactly what came to mind @WxUSAF when I saw some of the 0z suite. One of the best WAA thumps we’ve had of the last 25 years.

[aldie 22]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

2014 is exactly what came to mind @WxUSAF when I saw some of the 0z suite. One of the best WAA thumps we’ve had 9 of the last 25 years.

Was that the valentines day sleet bomb? Maybe im thinking 2007 that concrete was on the ground for weeks 

[WxUSAF]

RE: mixing, I was thinking that to myself yesterday that a giant phasing trough over Colorado would normally be screaming cutter. Only that beast of a NAO/50-50 combo forces it south. But shows how much wiggle room we have here for a major event. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Doesn’t look like any other models has picked up on the DC sleet rather than CMC and UK?

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Was that the valentines day sleet bomb? Maybe im thinking 2007 that concrete was on the ground for weeks 

No. It was a pounding WAA thump (14” for me), then drizzle all day, and then a few more inches of snow in the evening with the ULL.

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

2014 is exactly what came to mind @WxUSAF when I saw some of the 0z suite. One of the best WAA thumps we’ve had of the last 25 years.

Horrible storm here lol. I got about 9" before flipping to rain at 5am. It was like 45 and drizzly the entire next day. That evening was the main event here. I received 5" of snow in a couple hours along with lightning. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI looks great! Note: there will be mixing SE of DC-showing 7pm Sunday which is the northern extent of the warm nose.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Horrible storm here lol. I got about 9" before flipping to rain at 5am. It was like 45 and drizzly the entire next day. That evening was the main event here. I received 5" of snow in a couple hours along with lightning. 

14” was horrible?? lol

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, maybe the bleeding has stopped at least on the GGEM. 6z out to 84hrs, which is it's 6z and 18 limit, has a colder push in our back yards. Not a huge difference, but colder nonetheless. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI looks great!

1 inch qpf line finally busted thru PA/MD border. Giddy up!

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, maybe the bleeding has stopped at least on the GGEM. 6z out to 84hrs, which is its 6z and 18 limit, has a colder push in our back yards. Not a huge difference, but colder nonetheless. 

I think what you’re saying for the group is heights are a bit lower in the east 

[dailylurker]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

14” was horrible?? lol

The 9 i got overnight melted down to about 3" that rainy day. The evening ull was the best part. I don't want that when models have been insisting on a foot plus without the 45 degree drizzle. Horrible compared to what this weekend could bring. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

14” was horrible?? lol

It's always measured against expectations. You know that even as a green weenie.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, maybe the bleeding has stopped at least on the GGEM. 6z out to 84hrs, which is it's 6z and 18 limit, has a colder push in our back yards. Not a huge difference, but colder nonetheless. 

If we’re still showing the scores tomorrow afternoon then consider me on the hype train. Today is the crossroads given that’s when the 84-96 hour threshold is crossed.

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI looks great!

How far north did the mixing make it on the 06z euro AI?

[TSSN+]

Whatever we get from this, it will be around for a good while after. 

[DDweatherman]

Does anyone have a good final totals map from the 2014 event? From what I remember the N/W crew (which I was not a part of at that time) totaled 20” in spots

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Whatever we get from this, it will be around for a good while after. 

Yup ,  frigid temps for at least a week after and  long range shows below normal temps at least thru mid February!!!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Whatever we get from this, it will be around for a good while after. 

We're still gunna' need refreshers! Lol

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Toggling the 850 anomaly map on ai 6Z euro it does seem to have trended warmer.

[anotherman]

Does anyone have a good final totals map from the 2014 event? From what I remember the N/W crew (which I was not a part of at that time) totaled 20” in spots

I got 21 inches in southern York County.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, mitchnick said:

We're still gunna' need refreshers! Lol

I believe long range show another storm or 2

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

How far north did the mixing make it on the 06z euro AI?

WB Euro AI 7pm Sunday.

[mitchnick]

Slight raising of heights at 54hrs vs 0z on 6z Euro 

[mappy]

9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

No. It was a pounding WAA thump (14” for me), then drizzle all day, and then a few more inches of snow in the evening with the ULL.

I ended with over 20” from that one.