winter_warlock Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Here's the 06z gfs AI model notice the 540 (mix) line stays just south of DC very nice run!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Whatever it takes to get 20"+! Yup me too !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Today is the big test. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Good morning weenies. People have been mentioning Feb 2014 at times for this storm. I don’t remember the synoptic setup, but I remember that beatdown of a WAA thump. Maybe this is a colder version? 12” EPS mean is bonkers. Hitting NAM/RGEM range for storm start time with the 12z suite! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 AI GFS qpf.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2014 is exactly what came to mind @WxUSAF when I saw some of the 0z suite. One of the best WAA thumps we’ve had of the last 25 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, DDweatherman said: 2014 is exactly what came to mind @WxUSAF when I saw some of the 0z suite. One of the best WAA thumps we’ve had 9 of the last 25 years. Was that the valentines day sleet bomb? Maybe im thinking 2007 that concrete was on the ground for weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 RE: mixing, I was thinking that to myself yesterday that a giant phasing trough over Colorado would normally be screaming cutter. Only that beast of a NAO/50-50 combo forces it south. But shows how much wiggle room we have here for a major event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Doesn’t look like any other models has picked up on the DC sleet rather than CMC and UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Was that the valentines day sleet bomb? Maybe im thinking 2007 that concrete was on the ground for weeks No. It was a pounding WAA thump (14” for me), then drizzle all day, and then a few more inches of snow in the evening with the ULL. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 2014 is exactly what came to mind @WxUSAF when I saw some of the 0z suite. One of the best WAA thumps we’ve had of the last 25 years. Horrible storm here lol. I got about 9" before flipping to rain at 5am. It was like 45 and drizzly the entire next day. That evening was the main event here. I received 5" of snow in a couple hours along with lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 WB 6Z EURO AI looks great! Note: there will be mixing SE of DC-showing 7pm Sunday which is the northern extent of the warm nose. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: Horrible storm here lol. I got about 9" before flipping to rain at 5am. It was like 45 and drizzly the entire next day. That evening was the main event here. I received 5" of snow in a couple hours along with lightning. 14” was horrible?? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Fwiw, maybe the bleeding has stopped at least on the GGEM. 6z out to 84hrs, which is it's 6z and 18 limit, has a colder push in our back yards. Not a huge difference, but colder nonetheless. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO AI looks great! 1 inch qpf line finally busted thru PA/MD border. Giddy up! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw, maybe the bleeding has stopped at least on the GGEM. 6z out to 84hrs, which is its 6z and 18 limit, has a colder push in our back yards. Not a huge difference, but colder nonetheless. I think what you’re saying for the group is heights are a bit lower in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, WxUSAF said: 14” was horrible?? lol The 9 i got overnight melted down to about 3" that rainy day. The evening ull was the best part. I don't want that when models have been insisting on a foot plus without the 45 degree drizzle. Horrible compared to what this weekend could bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 14” was horrible?? lol It's always measured against expectations. You know that even as a green weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Fwiw, maybe the bleeding has stopped at least on the GGEM. 6z out to 84hrs, which is it's 6z and 18 limit, has a colder push in our back yards. Not a huge difference, but colder nonetheless. If we’re still showing the scores tomorrow afternoon then consider me on the hype train. Today is the crossroads given that’s when the 84-96 hour threshold is crossed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO AI looks great! How far north did the mixing make it on the 06z euro AI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Whatever we get from this, it will be around for a good while after. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Does anyone have a good final totals map from the 2014 event? From what I remember the N/W crew (which I was not a part of at that time) totaled 20” in spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, TSSN+ said: Whatever we get from this, it will be around for a good while after. Yup , frigid temps for at least a week after and long range shows below normal temps at least thru mid February!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Whatever we get from this, it will be around for a good while after. We're still gunna' need refreshers! Lol 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Toggling the 850 anomaly map on ai 6Z euro it does seem to have trended warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Does anyone have a good final totals map from the 2014 event? From what I remember the N/W crew (which I was not a part of at that time) totaled 20” in spotsI got 21 inches in southern York County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Just now, mitchnick said: We're still gunna' need refreshers! Lol I believe long range show another storm or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: How far north did the mixing make it on the 06z euro AI? WB Euro AI 7pm Sunday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Slight raising of heights at 54hrs vs 0z on 6z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: No. It was a pounding WAA thump (14” for me), then drizzle all day, and then a few more inches of snow in the evening with the ULL. I ended with over 20” from that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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