January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

For all the people saying "the GEFS/GFS was better" or "its fine it has time to change" I want to put a word of caution against that. Yes, raw numbers wise they are better; however, if either of them are correct we lose the big dog or even large storm potential unless dramatic changes occur in the NS. The reason I personally hate the GFS is because they do NOT eject the SW. As for it has time to change, this is true; yet, the SW should eject within 4-5 days and we should know if it'll eject within the next day or so. We need the GFS to be wrong to get a big storm. 

A related question might be why other models are showing that trough ejecting better and perhaps better interaction with the NS, but the GFS is "refusing" to do so.  While I'm not saying it will be or is correct, it does give one pause.

[SnowenOutThere]

So far through hour 64 the Euro seems unchanged with its handling of the SW and vorticity related to ejecting it... 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

A related question might be why other models are showing that trough ejecting better and perhaps better interaction with the NS, but the GFS is "refusing" to do so.  While I'm not saying it will be or is correct, it does give one pause.

Please refer to my post back on page six. Went over all that stuff there. The GFS fails to eject it due to destructive interference with the NS vorticity caused by another storm out in the Pacific. The Euro has that vorticity instead phase and amp the SW. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Me too. And the potential for snow on snow if it turns out the way. A big snow during Vodka TEQUILA cold and then more snow. 

FIFY...for @stormtracker!!! 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Please refer to my post back on page six. Went over all that stuff there. The GFS fails to eject it due to destructive interference with the NS vorticity caused by another storm out in the Pacific. The Euro has that vorticity instead phase and amp the SW. 

Thanks...sorry, I was in here several hours ago when this thread started and haven't seen or looked at all the intervening stuff when I had to step out for awhile.  Good discussion!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI euro is a bit south with the goods but still a great storm for our sub forum. 

[SnowenOutThere]

So far the Euro seems to be largely holding with its handling out west through hour 88

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

AI euro is a bit south with the goods but still a great storm for our sub forum. 

10:1

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

So far the Euro seems to be largely holding with its handling out west through hour 88

Oh yeah its coming East. Thank god

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

AI euro is a bit south with the goods but still a great storm for our sub forum. 

Does it go as much as what the GFS AI did (decent shift south it seemed but still quite fine enough here), or is it a minor shift in the Euro AI?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

10:1

Short Pump FTW!! 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Does it go as much as what the GFS AI did (decent shift south it seemed but still quite fine enough here), or is it a minor shift in the Euro AI?

Minor....see map above 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI ticked south again.

[TSSN+]

Euro ai no issue with sw ejecting the confluence up north was just a bit south pushing everything a bit south that run. 

[winter_warlock]

Models will wobble a little. Still 100+ hours out I expect a lil back and forth till we get within 48 hours

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Oh yeah its coming East. Thank god

Has the NS lobe overtop the low that wasn't there in 12z. Not sure if it'll phase or crush. 

[DDweatherman]

The key is that we continue to see no issue ejecting this eastward out of Baja. 
 

if the thing that keeps it south is simply confluence, we see that often times retract northward in the mid range.
 

Good to see on AI/op euro that continues 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI ticked south again.

 Still a very potent storm even for northern md

[SnowenOutThere]

From vort maps I expect the Euro to be at least a solid hit

[DDweatherman]

I’m mobile but don’t hate the euro this far at h5. Looks to be mainly slower as Randy and co alluded to earlier. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Precip panels aren't out yet but surface visibility def shows a heavy snowstorm

[NorthArlington101]

EURO has been out for a bit if you know where to look. Looks pretty much like 12z. I’d say a hold.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Still a very potent storm even for northern md

Yeah you just worry about more ticks south as we go along

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah you just worry about more ticks south as we go along

I just want to see that energy come out without issue. 18z euro and ai check that box.

then we look at the confluence downstream for the next round of changes in track from hrs 96 and on. Tomorrow we’ll hopefully get confirmation the s/w will eject eastward. 

[Solution Man]

No change, just noise

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

10:1

We can do better than 10:1 I would think. Even so, I’d take that in a heartbeat. 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

EURO has been out for a bit if you know where to look. Looks pretty much like 12z. I’d say a hold.

Main change is that its a bit less intense but longer duration snowstorm. Has snow all the way back to Texas at the end of its run

We already have a general 4-8 otg by that time too. I also think that it would come up the coast some. 

 

[winter_warlock]

For all the  suppression  we dealt with the 18z GFS actually was a step in right direction

 Hopefully the tick nw continues tonight

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI ticked south again.

We're right in the wheelhouse for the Euro AI and it's ensembles. If this look maintains for the next 24 hours, then it's probably game on. North of I-70 will somehow score double digits too. They always find a way.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

We're right in the wheelhouse for the Euro AI and it's ensembles. If this look maintains for the next 24 hours, then it's probably game on. North of I-70 will somehow score double digits too. They always find a way.

It also seems pretty much aligned to the Euro OP as well. Would think that from days 4-6 they combined would be a pretty good duo.