January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[Snow dog]

I don’t think I’ve ever rooted for rain over frozen precip more than I have now….

[lilj4425]

I wish the NAM wasn’t on an island by itself. Ugh.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

I hate this stupid storm.

In all the storms we’ve tracked here this is my least favorite and it’s not even close

[USCG RS]

12 minutes ago, RockyKnob said:

WNC doesn’t have the fragile pines that are in ENC, so they have that going for them. Also, any places with altitude will either be sleet or rain. It’s tough to get prolonged freezing rain there. The escarpment will have freezing rain, but without the pines to collapse everywhere, it hopefully will not be so bad. 

Unfortuntely 0.25 inches of ice is about 250 lbs added to each power line (per 300 feet of span), 0.5 inches about 550 lbs and one inch about 750-800 lbs.  If we hit 2 inches (just throwing it in because of how crazy a jump in the weight is) - its about 2,250 lbs.

Now - Distribution lines (NOT residential lines and/or service drops) are designed to handle a half an inch of ice accumulation and transmission lines are designed to handle 1.25 inches if made and maintained to standard. So we are actaully within potnetial range of BOTH (1.25 inches if we hit the very high end guidance - not necessarily likely). Keep in mind, winds kick up after the storm, which adds signifcant force to an already overburdened line. Likewise, any older infrastructure is likely to fail under standards. 

This could be.. well we all know what it could be. 

[NorthHillsWx]

No one *knows* what this is going to do. It seemed LOCKED IN for a major ice storm. Now, we’ve got Mets doubling down, Mets refusing to make a call till go time, Mets cutting totals in half, Mets flip flopping with each model run, Mets calling out other Mets? weather apps spitting out 8” of snow, people wondering if their power will be out for days or if theyll be at work Monday. I mean this is absurd. 

[WiseWeather]

My only saving grace around wnc is that most of these lines were redone and repoled after helene.


.

[USCG RS]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

No one *knows* what this is going to do. It seemed LOCKED IN for a major ice storm. Now, we’ve got Mets doubling down, Mets refusing to make a call till go time, Mets cutting totals in half, Mets flip flopping with each model run, Mets calling out other Mets? weather apps spitting out 8” of snow, people wondering if their power will be out for days or if theyll be at work Monday. I mean this is absurd. 

It comes down to liability. People are afraid to make a call and be wrong. 
Again, from a Risk Management point of view, I am actually sounding an alarm and have been to those I know and advise. The truth is we dont KNOW what will happen. However, there is a high probability of a significant ice storm. There is a medium to high possibility of a crippling ice storm. There is a moderate possibility of a catastrophic ice storm. From a Risk Management perspective, this is where you plan for severe disruption and pray you are wrong. But, if there was any WINTER storm where I would pull out the stops, its this one. 

[Buddy1987]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

No one *knows* what this is going to do. It seemed LOCKED IN for a major ice storm. Now, we’ve got Mets doubling down, Mets refusing to make a call till go time, Mets cutting totals in half, Mets flip flopping with each model run, Mets calling out other Mets? weather apps spitting out 8” of snow, people wondering if their power will be out for days or if theyll be at work Monday. I mean this is absurd. 

This one may go down in some type of record 24 hour sleet accumulation up this way.. I just saw simulation of 5.7” that would be unbelievable 

[lilj4425]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

No one *knows* what this is going to do. It seemed LOCKED IN for a major ice storm. Now, we’ve got Mets doubling down, Mets refusing to make a call till go time, Mets cutting totals in half, Mets flip flopping with each model run, Mets calling out other Mets? weather apps spitting out 8” of snow, people wondering if their power will be out for days or if theyll be at work Monday. I mean this is absurd. 

I’m just gonna stick with what GSP NWS is predicting for this area. They are very good at what they do. 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

This one may go down in some type of record 24 hour sleet accumulation up this way.. I just saw simulation of 5.7” that would be unbelievable 

I am speaking for the Carolina’s and Georgia. Y’all are confirmed and guaranteed to be under the firehouse we thought we were going to be under. Virginia is going to be a glacier come Monday

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL met Mike Maze posted a video on Facebook talking about the models showing less precip, ice totals less on the models, and maybe changing to rain Sunday night.

[Blacksburg Coach]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

This one may go down in some type of record 24 hour sleet accumulation up this way.. I just saw simulation of 5.7” that would be unbelievable 

where are sleet maps? I have a sub to pivotal.

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

I’m just gonna stick with what GSP NWS is predicting for this area. They are very good at what they do. 

Yea, I’m going with RAH but them cutting totals in half from 7 am to 4 pm didn’t exude the notion they have much confidence in what they’re putting out. Nor is the the high end of almost tripling their predicted total. Pretty much their graphics say you could have anywhere between 0.20” and 0.85” of ice, a winter weather advisory or the worst Ice storm in your history. I mean I could get paid to make those call maps

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

No one *knows* what this is going to do. It seemed LOCKED IN for a major ice storm. Now, we’ve got Mets doubling down, Mets refusing to make a call till go time, Mets cutting totals in half, Mets flip flopping with each model run, Mets calling out other Mets? weather apps spitting out 8” of snow, people wondering if their power will be out for days or if theyll be at work Monday. I mean this is absurd. 

And before it looked locked in for a major ice storm it looked locked in for a major snow storm until it changed to the major ice storm just 24 hours later 3 days out. I hope it isn't a major ice storm, but this storm has just been so annoying.

[lookingnorth]

54 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Appreciate you stopping in! 

I grew up in NC and still have family there, so I like to see what's happening in the Southeastern forum from time to time.

[Snow dog]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

WRAL met Mike Maze posted a video on Facebook talking about the models showing less precip, ice totals less on the models, and maybe changing to rain Sunday night.

God-I pray this happens!! 

[Regan]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

WRAL met Mike Maze posted a video on Facebook talking about the models showing less precip, ice totals less on the models, and maybe changing to rain Sunday night.

Typical Maze though. He acts like the possible rain will wash it all away. It might help powerlines. The tide he can get really downplays it and could stop people from prepping. 

[PackGrad05]

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name="Brick Tamland" userid="[emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6][emoji6]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji[emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]]]]"] WRAL met Mike Maze posted a video on Facebook talking about the models showing less precip, ice totals less on the models, and maybe changing to rain Sunday night.

By models he means European. Bc that’s all he ever referenced.


.

[Blacksburg Coach]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

And before it looked locked in for a major ice storm it looked locked in for a major snow storm until it changed to the major ice storm just 24 hours later 3 days out. I hope it isn't a major ice storm, but this storm has just been so annoying.

I feel this is a bit misleading as well. The fast majority of SWVA is under the moderate impact, I read this chart and think "no big deal" slick roads for a bit and probably few power outages.

[sinterpol7]

2 minutes ago, Regan said:

Typical Maze though. He acts like the possible rain will wash it all away. It might help powerlines. The tide he can get really downplays it and could stop people from prepping. 

Yeah, I've noticed he's been the least concerned of all of the other mets in the area this week. 

[SouthboundYank]

46 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

I think I can speak for the upstate SC folks… we are truly dreading this storm.  Anyone ‘rooting’ for ice/fz rain hasn’t been through what’s about to come to us.  Please check on your neighbors and the elderly. This is serious ‘shit’ that we are getting ready to experience.  I pray that everyone stays safe & warm…

18 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

I don’t think I’ve ever rooted for rain over frozen precip more than I have now….

Dude, I get and understand your dread. I've always felt like folks who root for the better part of an inch of ice on every coated surface hasn't actually lived through that...or its consequences. (I have, in both PA and VA over the past several decades and while ice is pretty, it's absolutely destructive.) I would be very interested to hear your live obs throughout the storm, either here or in an obs thread or a banter thread...and I'll pray for y'all up there. Ice SUCKS.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, combatsalaciousremoval said:

Yeah, I've noticed he's been the least concerned of all of the other mets in the area this week. 

Greg Fishel didn't seem too concerned about it for the Triangle in the video he posted earlier on Facebook. 

[cpg2]

Whenever there’s any kind of weather event for the Upstate, I listen to Chris Justus and Brad Panovich, then come here for the discussion and map analysis. Those two have been pretty much in agreement on this one. I also really like Kendra Kent—she’s been a bit more reserved, which I appreciate—but all three are essentially saying the same thing:

This is a major storm for the Upstate and WNC, and they’re very confident it will at least be disruptive, with a strong possibility of it being destructive and dangerous. That’s really all I need to know. Exact totals and p-type swings matter less when there’s this level of agreement that the event itself is a serious concern. Stay safe and warm everyone!

[USCG RS]

If you look over the Texas region, its been colder than expected. Likewise, this HP is really nosing down with a very dense cold. Perhaps it allows for more sleet than ZR, but, historically with these set ups, its a nortorious set up for ice in this region. I would say sleet may be a saving grace, however, I would not think that RN (plain) willl be. 

[PackGrad05]

Even if maze is right, really doesn’t change any impacts for Sunday or Monday. Roads will be bad. Power outages scattered.
Tuesday morning refreeze.


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[NYweatherguy]

3 minutes ago, SouthboundYank said:

Dude, I get and understand your dread. I've always felt like folks who root for the better part of an inch of ice on every coated surface hasn't actually lived through that...or its consequences. (I have, in both PA and VA over the past several decades and while ice is pretty, it's absolutely destructive.) I would be very interested to hear your live obs throughout the storm, either here or in an obs thread or a banter thread...and I'll pray for y'all up there. Ice SUCKS.

100%

[Snow dog]

4 minutes ago, SouthboundYank said:

Dude, I get and understand your dread. I've always felt like folks who root for the better part of an inch of ice on every coated surface hasn't actually lived through that...or its consequences. (I have, in both PA and VA over the past several decades and while ice is pretty, it's absolutely destructive.) I would be very interested to hear your live obs throughout the storm, either here or in an obs thread or a banter thread...and I'll pray for y'all up there. Ice SUCKS.

Yeah- I’ll be here giving an account of what happens, until power is lost.  BTW, I am literally .25 mile north of 85 here in Greenville…

[USCG RS]

Just now, Snow dog said:

Yeah- I’ll be here giving an account of what happens, until power is lost.  BTW, I am literally .25 mile north of 85 here in Greenville…

Simpsonville SC here 

 

[Snow dog]

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Simpsonville SC here 

 

Was planning on a weekend at the beach this  weekend, but couldn’t stand being down there , not knowing how my house is faring here in Greenville..

[NorthHillsWx]

7 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

If you look over the Texas region, its been colder than expected. Likewise, this HP is really nosing down with a very dense cold. Perhaps it allows for more sleet than ZR, but, historically with these set ups, its a nortorious set up for ice in this region. I would say sleet may be a saving grace, however, I would not think that RN (plain) willl be. 

Cold isn’t the main question, it’s whether there’s enough precip to cause big issues