January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, Jimbo! said:

Sorry guys I ruined the storm, just had to leave voicemail for surgeon. Took a nap and woke up to a 101.5 fever.


.

Praying for speedy recovery 

[DTP]

32 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Late PM Check in:

WTF knows what’s gonna happen later but if  NC matches DFW, you guys are gonna have at least 6 or 7 hours of COLD RAIN as an appetizer.   Since I last reported the temp has only dropped about 4* to lower 40s now.  I know the cold air is coming but what a dreary day so far.  
 

We’ll see what happens next. 
 

The more knowledge guys on our TX thread are struggling to figure this thing out.  

Cold sitting just north of the Red River- there are low mountains in S OK north of the River, and it takes a bit to push cold over top with a west-east orientation that currently exists.  Classical Blue northers typically are accompanied to 35 to 40 mph gust fronts with a strong north wind and 20-40 degree temp drops in a couple hours, and this isn't one of them....this will be more of a slow bleed with crashing dew points/evaporational cooling....hang in there- it is coming, but cold air is really dense and slows when it has to push over top....it will take a bit longer with this type of setup than with a normal arctic front 

 

you are getting overrunning now- as the cold continues to bleed south- you will go over to ZR soon, then mix in/change to IP as the cold air bleeds south and gets deeper...nothing to block it after it pushes over top of the Arbuckles

 

You can see obs on the other side of the range already in the 20's....you can also see the cold air atw down to Midland- faster between Amarillo/Lubbock/Midland- just high plains and really no topo to climb over/around outside of Palo Duro Canyon

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Dang, it’s so quiet in here 

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Dang, it’s so quiet in here 

Everybody got drunk and passed out. 

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Dang, it’s so quiet in here 

Sorry! Was at the casino.  What did I miss?

[ADB83]

Just getting ready for the storm just went grocery shopping at this late hour which is objectively one of my dumber ideas. Euro pretty much in line with a lot of the other guidance at this point. There seems to be consensus for the most part. It’s just about time. 

[BornAgain13]

We're waiting on this storm. It feels like its taking forever to get here lol

[Kristospherein]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

Everybody got drunk and passed out. 

Alcohol overrunning. 

On topic, it appears the sweet spot of the ice/QPF on several of these last runs is centering on further to the west than previous runs. Im in Charlotte.

Am I misinterpreting that?

[NorthHillsWx]

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

[ADB83]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

There’s been a trend for a little bit less QPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

Maybe a nod to the models showing a dry slot.

[USCG RS]

Just now, ADB83 said:

There’s been a trend for a little bit less PPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

Yeah, I think models are still figuring out just how dense this cold air is. If it's just dense enough, you get it just high enough to switch from ZR to IP. Here's hoping. 

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

 

1 minute ago, ADB83 said:

There’s been a trend for a little bit less QPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

Just watched Greg Fishel's latest video on Facebook. He mentioned the heavier precip shifting north and starting out as sleet in the Triangle. It seemed he thought south of the Triangle would have more freezing rain.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

There’s been a trend for a little bit less QPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

Yea, that was a pretty drastic step back. Haven’t seen much that supported the original amounts recently but they went below most everything I’ve seen come out 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

 

Just watched Greg Fishel's latest video on Facebook. He mentioned the heavier precip shifting north and starting out as sleet in the Triangle. It seemed he thought south of the Triangle would have more freezing rain.

Hopefully they’re right, 0.30” though still impactful is nowhere close to what happens when you approach 0.50”

I guess that’s why they waited to pull the trigger on the warning

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

 

Just watched Greg Fishel's latest video on Facebook. He mentioned the heavier precip shifting north and starting out as sleet in the Triangle. It seemed he thought south of the Triangle would have more freezing rain.

Yeah... Upstate SC looks like it's taking this on the chin.

[Regan]

Well yeah .38 the “expected” and the possible high end ice is .83. The low end is .27.
 

So… we will see. I don’t want anything but sleet/snow, but we can’t have nice things. 

[olafminesaw]

What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno

[ADB83]

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno

I’m in Winston-Salem. I fully expect to never make it above freezing even though Raleigh might briefly and that the sleet will hold on longer than most people are forecasting. Although I do think WFMY 2 probably has a good handle on it