WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Huffman brought down his ice forecast. Cited less QPF and more sleet. Said further tweaks down may be needed and that areas might avoid a repeat of 2002 That's great news. I hate this storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Using kuchera, that normally knocks out the Ice or sleet 10-4 and my bad- didn't know if you were referring to blended or non....pure sn, really tough call tbh, but certainly plausible given your location and the dry air at onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GSP has issued an Ice Storm Warning for my area in Lincoln County (NC Piedmont). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I believe there’s an issue with the NAM. Someone pointed this out on the other board, but if you look at soundings, it’s showing freezing rain but not depicting that on surface maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 interesting... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 GSP has issue ice storm warning for large area. https://www.weather.gov/gsp/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Winter Storm Warning has been issued here! My only ? is... @Discit doesnt include in the warning how much snow or ice lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SUNYGRAD Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 MY opinion----I think the NAM maybe a reasonable depiction----maybe too dry in NC. I would not automatically discount. Perhaps scattered precip on Sunday for several hours. The FV3 and HRRR (if you look southwest) maybe picking up on idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 5 minutes ago, wake4est said: interesting... What is this a map of? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said: What is this a map of? https://www.weather.gov/rah/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Winter Storm Warning has been issued here! My only ? is... @Discit doesnt include in the warning how much snow or ice lol Fair approach, IMO. It spells out the broader expectations N/S of 460. Frankly, this bit matters more than accumulation detail: Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, wake4est said: https://www.weather.gov/rah/ Ahh thanks, I just switched to a winter storm warning in orange county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Just now, 1bert1 said: GSP has issue ice storm warning for large area. https://www.weather.gov/gsp/ Guess I will also be cleaning up the bars/ports and sharpening the blades on my both of my Stihls today I have at least 7-8 30'+ pines still leaning from Helene behind the house- this will take down a couple of them at minimum 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 RRFS doesnt show much precip through late evening tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 11 minutes ago, wake4est said: interesting... Undoubtedly waiting one more cycle to decide WSW vs ISW. Probably fine timing wise given slowdown depicted on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 27 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’m trying to tread carefully here but I think GSP not coming to some agreement this morning and getting warnings hoisted is a blunder. Can’t get too ornery about exactly being 24hrs out or if it should be an ice storm or winter storm warning. It’s all in the wash. The general public doesn’t drill down that hard - missed opportunities to send out warnings while you had their attention waking up. they finally pulled the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Wonder is RAH is waiting to make sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria east of current warning area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 I am beginning to think we might escape the worst of it due to less moisture. Seems like almost every short range model has trended west with the precip and weaker overall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 8 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said: MY opinion----I think the NAM maybe a reasonable depiction----maybe too dry in NC. I would not automatically discount. Perhaps scattered precip on Sunday for several hours. The FV3 and HRRR (if you look southwest) maybe picking up on idea. I don't disagree with you- sub-zero DP take quite a bit of time and precip to overcome at the surface, but I am not sure how well this variable gets modeled by the NAM, plus or minus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1bert1 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, DTP said: Guess I will also be cleaning up the bars/ports and sharpening the blades on my both of my Stihls today I have at least 7-8 30'+ pines still leaning from Helene behind the house- this will take down a couple of them at minimum Yeah, I am one county to the south of the ice storm warnings and Helene with 100+ mph wind gusts ravaged my area. I hate the idea that some people that faced Helene will have to deal with this 1.5 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I am beginning to think we might escape the worst of it due to less moisture. Seems like almost every short range model has trended west with the precip and weaker overall. I’ve been in this boat since yesterday. The trend to lower QPF has been clear and the dry slot is a distinct possibility. Would be in line with how the rest of the year has played out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Wonder is RAH is waiting to make sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria east of current warning area? I think it's ISW vs WSW. The WSW text for western counties includes up to 1/2" of ice and 1-3" of sleet/snow. If trends continue to favor more IP, they likely opt for a blanket WSW. ISW has connotations that they are understandably careful with invoking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Icon trended toward the GFS solution giving more of a thump of a snow in Northern NC and southern VA 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADB83 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 A lot of uncertainty still. I have the highest respect as a hobby person for meteorology, and the people trying to forecast this. This region this time of year is just level 10 out of 10 difficulty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Any weather App is really only good for two things. Telling you what is happening right now, and giving you a vague idea about possible precip within the next two to three days. I see folks planning things a week out using them and ive stopped trying to show or tell them how messed up that is. No one understands that there isnt a team of PEOPLE working daily/hourly to update it. I've stopped pointing out to family and friends how different several apps can be for pretty much everything! Its actually not extremely difficult to learn a tiny bit about pressure systems and fronts and how they interact at different times of the year to do your own predicting in a general sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Ice storm warning issued for much of the area. https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ106&warncounty=SCC045&firewxzone=SCZ106&local_place1=Greenville SC&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=34.8387&lon=-82.3716 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: Icon trended toward the GFS solution giving more of a thump of a snow in Northern NC and southern VA RGEM looks nice too starting at 36 hr. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Dry slots have been under modeled for 40 years since I began actively following the weather. The other thing to note is that the final line coming through with heavy precip will likely be with temps close to freezing. Heavy rates and a marginal surface temp will likely lead to additional accrual. Having said all that, this airmass is exceptionally cold and CAD often hangs on for dear life in key areas. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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