January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Pure snow has penetrated farther south in Arkansas and West Tennessee than forecasted 

[olafminesaw]

Check out the warm nose this morning in Arkansas

[ADB83]

NAM much more in the sleet camp than HRRR for a much longer period of time. 

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, ADB83 said:

NAM much more in the sleet camp than HRRR for a much longer period of time. 

Yeah, looks like mostly sleet in NC before the precip moves north.

[Orange county]

NWS says the last 3/4 to an inch will be above freezing cold rain in Raleigh

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, Orange county said:

NWS says the last 3/4 to an inch will be above freezing cold rain in Raleigh

Nobody has a clue what is going to happen. 

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

NAM much more in the sleet camp than HRRR for a much longer period of time. 

Soundings are almost identical but the HRRR depicts differently on the precip type maps

[BooneWX]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

Nobody has a clue what is going to happen. 

Said the same thing when I looked at radar just now and saw precip on my doorstep. 8 hrs ahead of schedule.

[tarheelwx]

NAM has definitely lead the way on the dry slot …. Assuming it happens.  It’s wavered very little.  
TW

[Brick Tamland]

NAM does have a line of freezing rain in the foothills at hour 36 that changes to rain as it moves across NC, but not anywhere near the amount of freezing rain the HRRR is showing.

[lilj4425]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM does have a line of freezing rain in the foothills at hour 36 that changes to rain as it moves across NC, but not anywhere near the amount of freezing rain the HRRR is showing.

So which model is right? 

[Dunkman]

I mean historically the NAM has been good in our region with temps and less good with QPF. This time? Who knows.

27/6 at KGSO at 9am.

[UpstateSCBud]

Chris and his team at WYFF need to get on the same page. WYFF cutting the ice totals this morning, while Chris is saying nothing has changed and still showing the same totals as yesterday. 
 

 

[SUNYGRAD]

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

So which model is right? 

Not sure any one model is totally correct at moment.  

[Nick Esasky]

2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

So which model is right? 

All models are wrong.  Some are useful. 

[tarheelwx]

I’ve seen this happen a few times here in the triad in the last 40 years where the models show a strong line of precip/zr with rising temps to close out an event.  Every one of them were all bark and little to no bite - moderate to heavy “warm” rain has a hard time freezing at 31/32 degrees.  In the 20’s is a different story.  This could be a first, but to me, this event is getting much clearer.  
TW

[DTP]

23 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Good morning again from DFW!

Overnight not much has happened.  There is little ice and a dusting of sleet.   It’s 23* at the airport right now and the freezing rain/ice accrual concerns for here seem to be lessening.   NWS is calling for sleet/snow mix to continue for at least another 24 hours.  
There are reports of heavy sleet in the area   

Hope you guys can dodge the ice.  Stay safe everyone!

All sorts of energy running over top of the cold dome around DFW- the spotty/showery precip you are seeing right now will fill back in as the next piece of energy moves through....seen it a gazillion times with this setup over the years....temps will hit the mid- or upper teens by sunset at KDFW

 

Plus there are several different pieces of energy running atw back to El Paso, which is ~600 miles from Dallas...big friggin' state.  You will cash in on this storm with snow and sleet, even though it isn't doing much yet

[AirNelson39]

Honestly I’d favor the nam, hard to go against it at this range and with its consistency. Starting to think Raleigh area dodges the bullet on a major storm.

[lilj4425]

4 minutes ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Chris and his team at WYFF need to get on the same page. WYFF cutting the ice totals this morning, while Chris is saying nothing has changed and still showing the same totals as yesterday. 
 

 

This is why I stick with GSP NWS. The local media is a joke. 

[DTP]

3 minutes ago, DTP said:

All sorts of energy running over top of the cold dome around DFW- the spotty/showery precip you are seeing right now will fill back in as the next piece of energy moves through....seen it a gazillion times with this setup over the years....temps will hit the mid- or upper teens by sunset at KDFW

 

Plus there are several different pieces of energy running atw back to El Paso, which is ~600 miles from Dallas...big friggin' state.  You will cash in on this storm with snow and sleet, even though it isn't doing much yet

You may also have my favorite occurrence today bc of dynamics- thundersleet....it ain't a real storm in Texas without it lol

[Brick Tamland]

Hope the NAM is right. This would save a lot of headaches with less freezing rain and more sleet.

[SUNYGRAD]

Cataloochee Ranch - Resort Cams.  A little bit of snow falling at high elevations in NC for sure.  

[Brick Tamland]

[tarheelwx]

For the Triad, 1-2” of sleet and 0.25-0.5 ZR.  So yes a major ice storm, but I just don’t see severe or crippling in the cards.  Outages for sure but we’ll dodge the ZR hype that’s out there.  
TW

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Very little freezing rain depicted in the Triad, except for maybe southeastern Alamance County 

[USCG RS]

1 hour ago, DTP said:

Guess that could be one of two things:

1. Cold arriving slightly later than modeled

2. Depth of the cold in the wedge not as strong as originally modeled 

 

Judging by the 850 gradient in VA and obs from Dallas area last night (cold air took longer than expected to move south), my guess would be number 1

I agree with one, as others have

59 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

This freezing rain squall line that has become kind of model consensus is really weird looking, if it verifies, it will be high rates at least which is actually better with ice than just the drizzle

Unless it's in the 20s.

23 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

NAM has definitely lead the way on the dry slot …. Assuming it happens.  It’s wavered very little.  
TW

While I desperately want the NAM to be correct, the NAM is consistently running warm with this storm compared to real world observations

So it's likely missing the density of the cold air leading the LP to do whatever it wants. I don't think that's realistic. It's going way too far North with the warm air and acting like there's nothing in its way. This would also translate to its dry slot. 

Also, as I've been kind of harping on, RGEM is significantly cooler which gives me further pause. 

[Brick Tamland]

3K NAM also with more sleet than freezing rain, but more freezing rain than the regular NAM. They both have two rounds of precip for NC.

 

[SUNYGRAD]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

I think this idea is good but wonder if too dry and the frontal boundary precip at end of event for Triad----more freezing rain?  Mix??    

[DTP]

8 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

For the Triad, 1-2” of sleet and 0.25-0.5 ZR.  So yes a major ice storm, but I just don’t see severe or crippling in the cards.  Outages for sure but we’ll dodge the ZR hype that’s out there.  
TW

The duration of the cold is really what people need to pay attention to outside of this storm- Residential code outside of the mtns isn't built for this type of scenario 

I have built a lot of houses over the last 6 years and done even more renos- this is starting to look and feel like a slow-mo train-wreck in the making 

[Tony Sisk]

27 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Nobody has a clue what is going to happen. 

This is my thinking as well