January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 hour ago, Jimbo! said:

Sorry guys I ruined the storm, just had to leave voicemail for surgeon. Took a nap and woke up to a 101.5 fever.


.

Praying for speedy recovery 

[DTP]

32 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Late PM Check in:

WTF knows what’s gonna happen later but if  NC matches DFW, you guys are gonna have at least 6 or 7 hours of COLD RAIN as an appetizer.   Since I last reported the temp has only dropped about 4* to lower 40s now.  I know the cold air is coming but what a dreary day so far.  
 

We’ll see what happens next. 
 

The more knowledge guys on our TX thread are struggling to figure this thing out.  

Cold sitting just north of the Red River- there are low mountains in S OK north of the River, and it takes a bit to push cold over top with a west-east orientation that currently exists.  Classical Blue northers typically are accompanied to 35 to 40 mph gust fronts with a strong north wind and 20-40 degree temp drops in a couple hours, and this isn't one of them....this will be more of a slow bleed with crashing dew points/evaporational cooling....hang in there- it is coming, but cold air is really dense and slows when it has to push over top....it will take a bit longer with this type of setup than with a normal arctic front 

 

you are getting overrunning now- as the cold continues to bleed south- you will go over to ZR soon, then mix in/change to IP as the cold air bleeds south and gets deeper...nothing to block it after it pushes over top of the Arbuckles

 

You can see obs on the other side of the range already in the 20's....you can also see the cold air atw down to Midland- faster between Amarillo/Lubbock/Midland- just high plains and really no topo to climb over/around outside of Palo Duro Canyon

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Dang, it’s so quiet in here 

[lilj4425]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Dang, it’s so quiet in here 

Everybody got drunk and passed out. 

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Dang, it’s so quiet in here 

Sorry! Was at the casino.  What did I miss?

[ADB83]

Just getting ready for the storm just went grocery shopping at this late hour which is objectively one of my dumber ideas. Euro pretty much in line with a lot of the other guidance at this point. There seems to be consensus for the most part. It’s just about time. 

[BornAgain13]

We're waiting on this storm. It feels like its taking forever to get here lol

[Kristospherein]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

Everybody got drunk and passed out. 

Alcohol overrunning. 

On topic, it appears the sweet spot of the ice/QPF on several of these last runs is centering on further to the west than previous runs. Im in Charlotte.

Am I misinterpreting that?

[NorthHillsWx]

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

[ADB83]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

There’s been a trend for a little bit less QPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

Maybe a nod to the models showing a dry slot.

[USCG RS]

Just now, ADB83 said:

There’s been a trend for a little bit less PPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

Yeah, I think models are still figuring out just how dense this cold air is. If it's just dense enough, you get it just high enough to switch from ZR to IP. Here's hoping. 

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RAH really cut ice totals back for Raleigh. 0.36” forecast, nearly cut in half from earlier. Anyone know what their thinking is on that? Less QPF and warmer? Seems like a huge step back but thankfully impacts would be significantly better

 

1 minute ago, ADB83 said:

There’s been a trend for a little bit less QPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

Just watched Greg Fishel's latest video on Facebook. He mentioned the heavier precip shifting north and starting out as sleet in the Triangle. It seemed he thought south of the Triangle would have more freezing rain.

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, ADB83 said:

There’s been a trend for a little bit less QPF, but I think they’re also thinking maybe more sleet mixes in

Yea, that was a pretty drastic step back. Haven’t seen much that supported the original amounts recently but they went below most everything I’ve seen come out 

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

 

Just watched Greg Fishel's latest video on Facebook. He mentioned the heavier precip shifting north and starting out as sleet in the Triangle. It seemed he thought south of the Triangle would have more freezing rain.

Hopefully they’re right, 0.30” though still impactful is nowhere close to what happens when you approach 0.50”

I guess that’s why they waited to pull the trigger on the warning

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

 

Just watched Greg Fishel's latest video on Facebook. He mentioned the heavier precip shifting north and starting out as sleet in the Triangle. It seemed he thought south of the Triangle would have more freezing rain.

Yeah... Upstate SC looks like it's taking this on the chin.

[Regan]

Well yeah .38 the “expected” and the possible high end ice is .83. The low end is .27.
 

So… we will see. I don’t want anything but sleet/snow, but we can’t have nice things. 

[olafminesaw]

What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno

[ADB83]

10 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

What makes me nervous is the Triad always is the coldest in wedge situations (even compared to 50 miles west), that last hand of heavy rain may come through with temps in the mid 20s. No bueno

I’m in Winston-Salem. I fully expect to never make it above freezing even though Raleigh might briefly and that the sleet will hold on longer than most people are forecasting. Although I do think WFMY 2 probably has a good handle on it

[lilj4425]

Somebody say something. This is depressing. 

[KrummWx]

7 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Somebody say something. This is depressing. 

just obsess over next weekend like the rest of us

[IceQueen706]

Forecast discussion out of GSP states Rabun County could potentially see higher totals, but our point and click forecast shows  a high end of .7 of ice with minimal sleet/Now and then a heavy rain.  Some district and/or regional managers of restaurants/convenience stores here have implemented safety over profit and are shutting down early tomorrow, but there are others who are saying this is going to be a mostly very very low end ice mostly rain event and still will be open and want everyone to be on call and come in as usual on Saturday/Sunday/Monday because of tons of dry air that this will have to overcome.  

[ADB83]

12 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Somebody say something. This is depressing. 

 Feels like not so much the calm before the storm but the deep breath before the storm because I’m old enough to remember 2002 pretty well and it sucked. And I think that’s the best analog here. I also think some posters here have not emotionally recovered from the rug pull this week lol

[ADB83]

WFMY 2 in house model has a very brief period of snow for the Triad with around a 6 PM onset and then changeover to freezing rain at 7 AM Sunday morning. Tim Buckley sounded very sober in his 8 o’clock update. Not a tone I’ve heard a lot from him. Definitely sobers me up too thinking about the storm.

[BooneWX]

Not surprised it’s dead. Our fate is pretty baked in at this point. It’s mostly nowcasting and needing to move to an obs thread. 
 

As Joe Bastardi would say, enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got. 

[BooneWX]

 

[USCG RS]

28 minutes ago, IceQueen706 said:

Forecast discussion out of GSP states Rabun County could potentially see higher totals, but our point and click forecast shows  a high end of .7 of ice with minimal sleet/Now and then a heavy rain.  Some district and/or regional managers of restaurants/convenience stores here have implemented safety over profit and are shutting down early tomorrow, but there are others who are saying this is going to be a mostly very very low end ice mostly rain event and still will be open and want everyone to be on call and come in as usual on Saturday/Sunday/Monday because of tons of dry air that this will have to overcome.  

The truth is that any restaurant, company, etc that would do this to an employee is not a company that deserves to have employees. I know that it is not always easy to say I am not doing something, but as someone who usd to work in a restaurant, I implore you that if you call out and the peanlize you, find another job. I actually had this happen when I worked as an EMS provider and the county I worked for asked me to stay as a tropical storm was bearing down on the area. I called and expained and they stated that the weather was not that bad and that I had a choice to make. I was let go and it was the best thing that could have happened to me.

Speaking as a Risk Manager - here is my two cents: The forecast, if it plays out, is significant to major. I hate to ever use this word, but if we hit the 90th percentile of forecasts for this ice then it becomes catastrophic in some areas. So, at the end of the day, you have to prioritize yourself and your family. If you are stuck at work, your family is fending without you. If you try to make it home and were in the middle of a massive ice storm, chances are you simply wont. This has the potential to cripple the area with roads being impassable for days if we are hit as expected. So the matrix of Risk is such that we are facing a very high impact event with a significant strain on resources and a likely inability of the municipality to respond in a meanigful way for an extended period of time. You may have a choice to make, I would ask that you use this reasoning to help you come to a decision. Be safe.  

[IceQueen706]

5 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

The truth is that any restaurant, company, etc that would do this to an employee is not a company that deserves to have employees. I know that it is not always easy to say I am not doing something, but as someone who usd to work in a restaurant, I implore you that if you call out and the peanlize you, find another job. I actually had this happen when I worked as an EMS provider and the county I worked for asked me to stay as a tropical storm was bearing down on the area. I called and expained and they stated that the weather was not that bad and that I had a choice to make. I was let go and it was the best thing that could have happened to me.

Speaking as a Risk Manager - here is my two cents: The forecast, if it plays out, is significant to major. I hate to ever use this word, but if we hit the 90th percentile of forecasts for this ice then it becomes catastrophic in some areas. So, at the end of the day, you have to prioritize yourself and your family. If you are stuck at work, your family is fending without you. If you try to make it home and were in the middle of a massive ice storm, chances are you simply wont. This has the potential to cripple the area with roads neing impassable for days if we are hit as expected. So the matrix of Risk is such that we are facing a very high impact event with a significant strain on resources and a likely inability of the municipality to respond in a meanigful way for an extended period of time. You may have a choice to make, I would ask that you use this reasoning to help you come to a decision. Be safe.  

Thank you, and it's the same argument I just had with my daughter who is my GM and that is exactly what she told her district and regional managers.  I am forwarding this to her, too.  

[BornAgain13]

The HRRR is a devastating ice storm for the Carolinas. @Buddy1987the HRRR smoked yall man with 8"

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

The HRRR is a devastating ice storm for the Carolinas. @Buddy1987the HRRR smoked yall man with 8"

I so hope it’s right but I’ve already set my expectations of a full fledged sleet bomb so I don’t get disappointed. FV3 RGEM GFS and HRRR want to smoke us before flip. 
 

Other problem is HRRR is beyond awful outside of even like 6 hours so it’s hard to buy in.