January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Brick Tamland]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Huffman brought down his ice forecast. Cited less QPF and more sleet. Said further tweaks down may be needed and that areas might avoid a repeat of 2002

That's great news. I hate this storm.

[DTP]

9 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Using kuchera, that normally knocks out the Ice or sleet

10-4 and my bad- didn't know if you were referring to blended or non....pure sn, really tough call tbh, but certainly plausible given your location and the dry air at onset 

[Upstate Tiger]

GSP has issued an Ice Storm Warning for my area in Lincoln County (NC Piedmont).  

[BooneWX]

I believe there’s an issue with the NAM. Someone pointed this out on the other board, but if you look at soundings, it’s showing freezing rain but not depicting that on surface maps. 

[wake4est]

interesting...

[1bert1]

GSP has issue ice storm warning for large area.    https://www.weather.gov/gsp/

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

Winter Storm Warning has been issued here! My only ? is... @Discit doesnt include in the warning how much snow or ice lol

[SUNYGRAD]

MY opinion----I think the NAM maybe a reasonable depiction----maybe too dry in NC.    I would not automatically discount.   Perhaps scattered precip on Sunday for several hours.  The FV3 and HRRR (if you look southwest) maybe picking up on idea.  

[stormwatcherJ]

5 minutes ago, wake4est said:

interesting...

What is this a map of?

 

[wake4est]

2 minutes ago, stormwatcherJ said:

What is this a map of?

 

https://www.weather.gov/rah/

 

[Blue Ridge]

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Winter Storm Warning has been issued here! My only ? is... @Discit doesnt include in the warning how much snow or ice lol

Fair approach, IMO. It spells out the broader expectations N/S of 460. Frankly, this bit matters more than accumulation detail:

Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice.
  Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Monday morning commute.

[stormwatcherJ]

Just now, wake4est said:

https://www.weather.gov/rah/

 

Ahh thanks, I just switched to a winter storm warning in orange county

 

[DTP]

Just now, 1bert1 said:

GSP has issue ice storm warning for large area.    https://www.weather.gov/gsp/

Guess I will also be cleaning up the bars/ports and sharpening the blades on my both of my Stihls today

 

I have at least 7-8 30'+ pines still  leaning from Helene behind the house- this will take down a couple of them at minimum

[wncsnow]

RRFS doesnt show much precip through late evening tomorrow

[Blue Ridge]

11 minutes ago, wake4est said:

interesting...

Undoubtedly waiting one more cycle to decide WSW vs ISW. Probably fine timing wise given slowdown depicted on modeling.

[Tony Sisk]

27 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m trying to tread carefully here but I think GSP not coming to some agreement this morning and getting warnings hoisted is a blunder. Can’t get too ornery about exactly being 24hrs out or if it should be an ice storm or winter storm warning. It’s all in the wash. The general public doesn’t drill down that hard - missed opportunities to send out warnings while you had their attention waking up. 

they finally pulled the trigger.

[NorthHillsWx]

Wonder is RAH is waiting to make sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria east of current warning area?

[wncsnow]

I am beginning to think we might escape the worst of it due to less moisture. Seems like almost every short range model has trended west with the precip and weaker overall. 

[DTP]

8 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

MY opinion----I think the NAM maybe a reasonable depiction----maybe too dry in NC.    I would not automatically discount.   Perhaps scattered precip on Sunday for several hours.  The FV3 and HRRR (if you look southwest) maybe picking up on idea.  

I don't disagree with you- sub-zero DP take quite a bit of time and precip to overcome at the surface, but I am not sure how well this variable gets modeled by the NAM, plus or minus 

[1bert1]

2 minutes ago, DTP said:

Guess I will also be cleaning up the bars/ports and sharpening the blades on my both of my Stihls today

 

I have at least 7-8 30'+ pines still  leaning from Helene behind the house- this will take down a couple of them at minimum

Yeah, I am one county to the south of the ice storm warnings and Helene with 100+ mph wind gusts ravaged my area. I hate the idea that some people that faced Helene will have to deal with this 1.5 years later.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

I am beginning to think we might escape the worst of it due to less moisture. Seems like almost every short range model has trended west with the precip and weaker overall. 

I’ve been in this boat since yesterday. The trend to lower QPF has been clear and the dry slot is a distinct possibility. Would be in line with how the rest of the year has played out

[Blue Ridge]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Wonder is RAH is waiting to make sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria east of current warning area?

I think it's ISW vs WSW. The WSW text for western counties includes up to 1/2" of ice and 1-3" of sleet/snow. If trends continue to favor more IP, they likely opt for a blanket WSW. 

ISW has connotations that they are understandably careful with invoking.

[BornAgain13]

Icon trended toward the GFS solution giving more of a thump of a snow in Northern NC and southern VA 

[ADB83]

A lot of uncertainty still. I have the highest respect as a hobby person for meteorology, and the people trying to forecast this. This region this time of year is just level 10 out of 10 difficulty.

[DeltaPilot]

 Any weather App is really only good for two things. Telling you what is happening right now, and giving you a vague idea about possible precip within the next two to three days. I see folks planning things a week out using them and ive stopped trying to show or tell them how messed up that is.  No one understands that there isnt a team of PEOPLE working daily/hourly to update it. I've stopped pointing out to family and friends how different several apps can be for pretty much everything!

Its actually not extremely difficult to learn a tiny bit about pressure systems and fronts and how they interact at different times of the year to do your own predicting in a general sense.

[USCG RS]

Ice storm warning issued for much of the area. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=SCZ106&warncounty=SCC045&firewxzone=SCZ106&local_place1=Greenville SC&product1=Ice+Storm+Warning&lat=34.8387&lon=-82.3716

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Icon trended toward the GFS solution giving more of a thump of a snow in Northern NC and southern VA 

RGEM looks nice too starting at 36 hr.

[tarheelwx]

Dry slots have been under modeled for 40 years since I began actively following the weather.  The other thing to note is that the final line coming through with heavy precip will likely be with temps close to freezing.  Heavy rates and a marginal surface temp will likely lead to additional accrual.  Having said all that, this airmass is exceptionally cold and CAD often hangs on for dear life in key areas.

TW