olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said: Man... The amount of precip this thing is going to pump out can't be accurately depicted. This is such an insane jet configuration for STJ moisture. I would be surprised if several of us don't see over 2 inches of qpf. We are getting 2" of precip despite the Appalachian blocking the moisture feed (depicted clearly on models) north GA/AL is getting 3-4"+ of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: @BornAgain13it is going to be SUPER close on thermals with initial thump as well on GFS. Hr 66 has the death band set up basically directly over the 460 corridor. It's giving 12"+ from me north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Stormpc said: Most major models have the storm next weekend cutting under us from the Gulf and up the coast. That's a very strong signal this far out. GFS has it as well After this cluster I am not looking at any models for next weekend until next Thursday...BTW, Do you happen to have a snowfall map of next weekend? 3 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said: After this cluster I am not looking at any models for next weekend until next Thursday...BTW, Do you happen to have a snowfall map of next weekend? I was actually looking at the Canadian and thought I was looking at the gfs. But the Canadian and Euro both have it. That's for another time and thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Canadian is like the GFS, but more zr around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Can somebody please print the entire region sleet map? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, calculus1 said: Can somebody please print the entire region sleet map? Thanks! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said: After this cluster I am not looking at any models for next weekend until next Thursday...BTW, Do you happen to have a snowfall map of next weekend? 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 I have to imagine with the amount of moisture this will be throwing down there might be some thundersnow? I haven't seen any since the 09' storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 ukie is juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowncanes Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Freezing rain squall line anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Fall/Winter Model Verification seems to favor a blend of GFS/EC ENS means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 https://youtu.be/aj39Gw9JZ20 Brad P just released this. He talks about the storm and the following arctic blast. He also near the end discussed the euro and how he thinks something is amiss with how it’s missing all the sleet. He said he prefers the gfs at the moment and listed off his reasoning. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Snowncanes said: Freezing rain squall line anyone? That’s a nightmare with the accumulated ice and the arctic blast flash freezing anything on the ground. Crap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Snowncanes said: Freezing rain squall line anyone? Rates that hard would not accumulate on trees/power lines as much. Its the light/moderate rain that is the big problem 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 10 minutes ago, Regan said: https://youtu.be/aj39Gw9JZ20 Brad P just released this. He talks about the storm and the following arctic blast. He also near the end discussed the euro and how he thinks something is amiss with how it’s missing all the sleet. He said he prefers the gfs at the moment and listed off his reasoning. He is right. The Euro is doing a piss poor job of handling the sleet aspect of this. The sleet bomb idea is real. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeeDeeWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 All this talk about next weekend makes me giggle. It appears, as we sit, it's still too early to talk about this weekend. Gotta love southern weather. I don't envy the forecasters. But I do hold in contempt the ones that are weenies. Leave that to us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said: Lived in CLT area for more than half my life- I have never seen below zero temps in this neck of the woods I also lived in Gunnison and Crested Butte for 3 years- below zero highs were pretty normal, especially in Gunnison (sub-desert cold air sink)...really strange seeing those type of numbers around Charlotte 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTP Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 9 minutes ago, Snow dog said: Rates that hard would not accumulate on trees/power lines as much. Its the light/moderate rain that is the big problem Yessir- starts to get self-limiting very quickly at those rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blacksburg Coach Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said: All this talk about next weekend makes me giggle. It appears, as we sit, it's still too early to talk about this weekend. Gotta love southern weather. I don't envy the forecasters. But I do hold in contempt the ones that are weenies. Leave that to us. Had to do it! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Maybe us Raleigh folks will have our power back on before we get buried next weekend 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Be careful what you wish for with “less” qpf. Physics say warm air transport over a deep cold wedge = light precip models won’t see and radar might not see either. You might shave a few tenths off as we progress but you’re honestly just creating an environment for more efficient ice accrual. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, BooneWX said: Be careful what you wish for with “less” qpf. Physics say warm air transport over a deep cold wedge = light precip models won’t see and radar might not see either. You might shave a few tenths off as we progress but you’re honestly just creating an environment for more efficient ice accrual. That is true. Freezing drizzle is diabolical 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, wncsnow said: That is true. Freezing drizzle is diabolical Yep. This is going to be a scenario where you’re either seeing sleet under heavy returns or near constant freezing drizzle in between. Also, the lighter the returns, the less the waa works to the ground, so you’re going to lock in closer to 20 with no escape route. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Be careful what you wish for with “less” qpf. Physics say warm air transport over a deep cold wedge = light precip models won’t see and radar might not see either. You might shave a few tenths off as we progress but you’re honestly just creating an environment for more efficient ice accrual. Yeah heavy rain would drop off the trees to some degree even if temps are at 25. Bands of heavy rain are much preferred to steady drizzle 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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