January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[olafminesaw]

7 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Man... The amount of precip this thing is going to pump out can't be accurately depicted. This is such an insane jet configuration for STJ moisture. I would be surprised if several of us don't see over 2 inches of qpf.

 

We are getting 2" of precip despite the Appalachian blocking the moisture feed (depicted clearly on models) north GA/AL is getting 3-4"+ of QPF

[Blacksburg Coach]

15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@BornAgain13it is going to be SUPER close on thermals with initial thump as well on GFS. Hr 66 has the death band set up basically directly over the 460 corridor. 

It's giving 12"+ from me north.

[Upstate Tiger]

Just now, Stormpc said:

Most major models have the storm next weekend cutting under us from the Gulf and up the coast. That's a very strong signal this far out. GFS has it as well

After this cluster I am not looking at any models for next weekend until next Thursday...BTW, Do you happen to have a snowfall map of next weekend?

[Stormpc]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

After this cluster I am not looking at any models for next weekend until next Thursday...BTW, Do you happen to have a snowfall map of next weekend?

I was actually looking at the Canadian and thought I was looking at the gfs. But the Canadian and Euro both have it. That's for another time and thread.

[Blacksburg Coach]

[Blacksburg Coach]

[wake4est]

Canadian is like the GFS, but more zr around here.

[calculus1]

Can somebody please print the entire region sleet map? Thanks!

[eyewall]

1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Can somebody please print the entire region sleet map? Thanks!

[Brick Tamland]

9 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

After this cluster I am not looking at any models for next weekend until next Thursday...BTW, Do you happen to have a snowfall map of next weekend?

[wake4est]

[olafminesaw]

[Blacksburg Coach]

I have to imagine with the amount of moisture this will be throwing down there might be some thundersnow? I haven't seen any since the 09' storm

[wake4est]

ukie is juicy

[Snowncanes]

Freezing rain squall line anyone?

[HKY_WX]

Fall/Winter Model Verification seems to favor a blend of GFS/EC ENS means. 

 

[Regan]

https://youtu.be/aj39Gw9JZ20

Brad P just released this. He talks about the storm and the following arctic blast. He also near the end discussed the euro and how he thinks something is amiss with how it’s missing all the sleet. He said he prefers the gfs at the moment and listed off his reasoning. 

[eyewall]

[Regan]

4 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Freezing rain squall line anyone?

That’s a nightmare with the accumulated ice and the arctic blast flash freezing anything on the ground. Crap. 

[Snow dog]

8 minutes ago, Snowncanes said:

Freezing rain squall line anyone?

Rates that hard would not accumulate on trees/power lines as much.  Its the light/moderate rain that is the big problem

[eyewall]

10 minutes ago, Regan said:

https://youtu.be/aj39Gw9JZ20

Brad P just released this. He talks about the storm and the following arctic blast. He also near the end discussed the euro and how he thinks something is amiss with how it’s missing all the sleet. He said he prefers the gfs at the moment and listed off his reasoning. 

He is right. The Euro is doing a piss poor job of handling the sleet aspect of this. The sleet bomb idea is real. 

[PeeDeeWx]

All this talk about next weekend makes me giggle. It appears, as we sit, it's still too early to talk about this weekend. Gotta love southern weather. I don't envy the forecasters. But I do hold in contempt the ones that are weenies. Leave that to us.

[DTP]

25 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Lived in CLT area for more than half my life- I have never seen below zero temps in this neck of the woods

 

I also lived in Gunnison and Crested Butte for 3 years- below zero highs were pretty normal, especially in Gunnison (sub-desert cold air sink)...really strange seeing those type of numbers around Charlotte 

[DTP]

9 minutes ago, Snow dog said:

Rates that hard would not accumulate on trees/power lines as much.  Its the light/moderate rain that is the big problem

Yessir- starts to get self-limiting very quickly at those rates 

[Blacksburg Coach]

8 minutes ago, PeeDeeWx said:

All this talk about next weekend makes me giggle. It appears, as we sit, it's still too early to talk about this weekend. Gotta love southern weather. I don't envy the forecasters. But I do hold in contempt the ones that are weenies. Leave that to us.

Had to do it!

[NorthHillsWx]

Maybe us Raleigh folks will have our power back on before we get buried next weekend 

[BooneWX]

Be careful what you wish for with “less” qpf. Physics say warm air transport over a deep cold wedge = light precip models won’t see and radar might not see either. You might shave a few tenths off as we progress but you’re honestly just creating an environment for more efficient ice accrual.

[wncsnow]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Be careful what you wish for with “less” qpf. Physics say warm air transport over a deep cold wedge = light precip models won’t see and radar might not see either. You might shave a few tenths off as we progress but you’re honestly just creating an environment for more efficient ice accrual.

That is true. Freezing drizzle is diabolical

[BooneWX]

Just now, wncsnow said:

That is true. Freezing drizzle is diabolical

Yep. This is going to be a scenario where you’re either seeing sleet under heavy returns or near constant freezing drizzle in between. Also, the lighter the returns, the less the waa works to the ground, so you’re going to lock in closer to 20 with no escape route.

[olafminesaw]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Be careful what you wish for with “less” qpf. Physics say warm air transport over a deep cold wedge = light precip models won’t see and radar might not see either. You might shave a few tenths off as we progress but you’re honestly just creating an environment for more efficient ice accrual.

Yeah heavy rain would drop off the trees to some degree even if temps are at 25. Bands of heavy rain are much preferred to steady drizzle