January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[wncsnow]

The start is less than 5 days away which is kind of crazy 

[wncsnow]

GFS is a big hit 

[eyewall]

The NC weenie run

[buckeyefan1]

Bless its gfs heart 

[Drummer]

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The NC weenie run

Sheesh.  Last time Mrs Drummer saw 12in in CLT was 2014 before we had kids and had three date nights.

[wncsnow]

Canadian is gonna be more amped 

[BornAgain13]

12z GFS = Carolina Crusher 

[olafminesaw]

Euro trends WRT the ridge 

[olafminesaw]

GFS 

[eyewall]

You can see the solid high position as the heaviest rates occur in NC

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[neverSnowsLCSC]

I'd rather have rain than ice. Shift it north or south, please.

[fig]

Kinda crazy how similar this feels to almost exactly a year ago. Looks like the potential for more ice issues this time, but only 5 days away has me getting excited after yesterdays 45 degree rain!

[BooneWX]

33 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Since we should have CAD this go around too, when is the last time it hasn’t trended stronger/colder the closer we get? Seems like as long as the HP is there the CAD verifies deeper and colder than modeled and saves a lot of us in that region from significant ZR.

This as well. This isn’t my bias but an absolute fact that deterministic models at range never account for CAD correctly. I’d expect we’ll see it under modeled until that Wed/ thurs window. 

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, fig said:

Kinda crazy how similar this feels to almost exactly a year ago. Looks like the potential for more ice issues this time, but only 5 days away has me getting excited after yesterdays 45 degree rain!

This is a completely different animal imo. Last year the signal was loud but also obvious early on that anyone further east than the mid south was hoping for strung out northern energy to pay dividends. None of that bs this time! This from an analog standpoint is 100% how you get a memorable significant impact from the plains to the eastern seaboard. 

[BornAgain13]

CMC is north with the Snow

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[eyewall]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

CMC is north with the Snow

Yep it sure is although with a stronger parent high than the GFS. It is true CAD is never handled well on the globals.

[olafminesaw]

[NC_hailstorm]

-Canadian brings the Baja shortwave out,phases too early and is amped up.

-GFS misses the phase,colder and a good hit with the shortwave.

-UK misses the phase but isn't as cold as the GFS, sleet/snow mix but no cutter this run.

 

[WXNewton]

12z UKMET much further south than 0z, still tries to run low into heart of the CAD, regardless of trying to do that, it's an absolute mess of a storm across much of NC and would be bad in many ways!

[wncsnow]

The UK makes sense climatologically

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

Absolutely stupid GEFS run. Make sure you’re seated when you pull it up.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

6 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Absolutely frigid 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Absolutely stupid GEFS run. Make sure you’re seated when you pull it up.

I wanna see!

[Upstate Tiger]

Lot of similarities to the January 88 storm with this setup.

https://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/TechAttachments/ta2001-02.pdf

[WNC_Fort]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Absolutely stupid GEFS run. Make sure you’re seated when you pull it up.

Share with the class!

[WXNewton]

6 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

12z UKMET much further south than 0z, still tries to run low into heart of the CAD, regardless of trying to do that, it's an absolute mess of a storm across much of NC and would be bad in many ways!

Temps to go with it...It's hard to put much stock into it seeing how much it shifted since last night though. GFS seems way more consistent so far. That would not be good either way throwing that type of precip over low 20 surface temps in the Piedmont.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Absolutely stupid GEFS run. Make sure you’re seated when you pull it up.

I wanna see!