First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

All Eyes On Sunday-Night-Monday

Significant Snows Possible Latter Half Of Holiday Weekend 

Eastern Mass Weather asserted late last week that a significant storm was highly unlikely to materialize on Friday into Saturday. However, there was a distinct possibility that the follow up wave could produce major winter storm this coming Sunday Monday, due in large part to subtle changes in the orientation of the western CONUS ridge. There is now a growing signal amongst guidance that such a storm may indeed materialize. 

Synoptic Overview

There are no changes with respect to the prevailing thought process surrounding storm number one. The energy will simply fail to coalesce soon enough for the region to be impacted by a major winter storm due to the follow up disturbance triggering a reconfiguration of the western CONUS ridge into a more positive (southwest to northeast) orientation.

 

 

This subtle change promotes a slower down stream evolution, which results in the energy phasing over the Canadien Maritimes instead of just off of the east coast. While this does not preclude snowfall, per se, it doe relegate the region to a lighter snowfall that may accumulate an inch or two over the higher terrain of the interior.

 

These type of wave spacing issues, as referenced last week, were a common occurrence that consistently plagued storm potential last season. Thereafter, the amplification of the incoming trough over the midwest will allow for a reconfiguration of the ridge back to a more positive orientation.

 

This will afford the system more of an opportunity to amplify fast enough to have a greater impact on the region by Sunday night into Monday.

 

However, there remains considerable uncertainty concerning whether or not it will amplify fast enough to provide significant snows for all of the region, or whether the primary impact will be more confined to eastern zones.

 

Anticipate a First Call  on Friday.

 

Threat Assessment

 

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Lets go.

I mean we already had a legit 6+ snowstorm here but i know Methuen is still waiting. 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro skynet got a little better. Prob solid advisory east of ORH. We wait on the OP run. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro skynet got a little better. Prob solid advisory east of ORH. We wait on the OP run. 

Have to look really hard for the improvement. Very small. Almost lockstep to the prior run, impressive consistency 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Lets go.

I mean we already had a legit 6+ snowstorm here but i know Methuen is still waiting. 

If it didn’t happen in EMA, it didn’t happen.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

RGW with 6+ though. Hope he right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Lets go.

I mean we already had a legit 6+ snowstorm here but i know Methuen is still waiting. 

EASTERNMASSweather...

[The 4 Seasons]

I expect maybe a slight improvement from the 12Z euro but it wont look anything like the GFS id bet on that

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

If it didn’t happen in EMA, it didn’t happen.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EASTERNMASSweather...

 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EASTERNMASSweather...

NEWENGLAND thread title...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

NEWENGLAND thread title...

Kind of like how many of your maps focus on CT....funny how everyone is able to seamlessly wrap their mind around that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

EasternAss?

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I expect maybe a slight improvement from the 12Z euro but it wont look anything like the GFS id bet on that

Yeah I think at the end of the day the 12z GFS OP is probably towards the outlier side of what would ultimately happen. I'm just hoping for slight improvements from the euro this run from 0z/6z....all we can ask for right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

EasternAss?

Odd to focus where you live, I know

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro Loading...

[Kitz Craver]

That GFS blizzard is an old school, “Ain’t happening James” RIP

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Euro gonna be bleh. 

[vortex95]

The CoastalWx dream scenario from the 12z GFS!  Max right over Weymouth!!!

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro Loading...

Probably a terd on my face

[amarshall]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

That GFS blizzard is an old school, “Ain’t happening James” RIP

Thats a blast from the past 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro gonna be bleh. 

Its worse than 6z

[8611Blizz]

This has the feel of the 2010's of modeling. Old school disappointment

[mahk_webstah]

The GFS led on first storm of the season and it took the euro a while to catch up

[The 4 Seasons]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kind of like how many of your maps focus on CT....funny how everyone is able to seamlessly wrap their mind around that.

It started out as CT but i expanded it to all of SNE a couple years ago and Tri-State for the other forum.. so i dont see the problem with that

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Euro gonna be bleh. 

Is this not identical to what just happened regarding this Friday? Gfs was completely out to lunch. Showed a blizzard, and then marched a thousand miles offshore in 4 runs.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is this not identical to what just happened regarding this Friday? Gfs was completely out to lunch. Showed a blizzard, and then marched a thousand miles offshore in 4 runs.

Yea this may back in to like a low advisory for ema. Nothing more.

[Kitz Craver]

Thread Cancel? Lol

[weatherwiz]

That n/s is def more of a kicker on the euro versus gfs. big differences too with that srn stream shortwave and how it evolves across the southeast. Was hoping to see something more positive here

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

It started out as CT but i expanded it to all of SNE a couple years ago and Tri-State for the other forum.. so i dont see the problem with that

I never saw the problem before, which is the point that is apparently lost on you.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Is this not identical to what just happened regarding this Friday? Gfs was completely out to lunch. Showed a blizzard, and then marched a thousand miles offshore in 4 runs.

Could be, but I feel like this has a better chance for reasons stated. Doesn't have to work out...