Storm potential January 18th-19th

[WeatherGeek2025]

could this cut!?

[MJO812]

Euro is further east than 6z and all of the other models. Kicker is also faster than other models.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is further east than 6z and all of the other models. Kicker is also faster than other models.

How are you out that far already?

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

How are you out that far already?

it has a few inches for saturday!

[Krs4Lfe]

Euro has nothing for Sunday.

So here's where we are: 

GFS has big storm (won't happen)

CMC has a light-moderate event

UKMET has a light event

ICON has a light-moderate event

 

Either way, almost all models have light snow on Saturday. But the antecedent airmass is very warm so I'd only expect accumulation inland. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

How are you out that far already?

Stormvista

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Stormvista

Weather bell suxs I’m at hour 72

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Euro has nothing for Sunday.

So here's where we are: 

GFS has big storm (won't happen)

CMC has a light-moderate event

UKMET has a light event

ICON has a light-moderate event

 

Either way, almost all models have light snow on Saturday. But the antecedent airmass is very warm so I'd only expect accumulation inland. 

i'm annoying and a bigger weather feen than you but for the love of God, can you take a break?

[MJO812]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm annoying and a bigger weather feen than you but for the love of God, can you take a break?

Lol

[TJW014]

Wait for tonight/tomorrow's miss to get on out of here before taking any solutions for Sun/Mon seriously

[Brian5671]

32 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm annoying and a bigger weather feen than you but for the love of God, can you take a break?

That's actually a reasonable post from him-notes what each model has and also notes it's warm for Sat for accums

[WeatherGeek2025]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That's actually a reasonable post from him-notes what each model has and also notes it's warm for Sat for accums

except he posts GFS (won't happen) 

nobody knows he's just trying to rile things up! We all know where we stand

[vegan_edible]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

except he posts GFS (won't happen) 

nobody knows he's just trying to rile things up! We all know where we stand

... 

 

so who's gonna tell him

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

52 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'm annoying and a bigger weather feen than you but for the love of God, can you take a break?

Arguing with yourself here? I've always been of the belief you two are the same person. The Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde of the NYC forum. 

[eduggs]

There is an axiom on these boards that it's wise to go with the least snowy model in the mid-range. So that would be the 12z ECMWF or 12z ICON. Seems reasonable to me.

[Roger Smith]

The current GFS 12z has the look of a 5-8" snowfall in NYC region and 10-15" in eastern New England, are the Pats playing on Sunday? 

Very cold Friday, somewhat milder Saturday, but whatever snow would fall seems likely to stick almost from onset as temperatures plunge into deep freeze Sunday night. In fact the rest of January looks like it would average about 7-10 F below normal and that would drop the anomaly from present levels near +3 to an end result near -3 to -4. Getting a snow pack established Sunday would help to drop those anomalies too.

[eduggs]

The 18z NAM adjusted from 12z to look more ECMWF-like than GFS-like. That's not a strong start to 18z.

[snowman19]

Anyone actually believing the outlier op GFS is just asking for extreme disappointment. Its own ensemble (GEFS) says it’s off its rocker. The EURO op, EURO AI and EPS look absolutely nothing at all like it for Sat-Sun

[hooralph]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

The current GFS 12z has the look of a 5-8" snowfall in NYC region and 10-15" in eastern New England, are the Pats playing on Sunday? 

 

20z kickoff Sunday.

[forkyfork]

there isn't a single eps member that has a gfs track

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The 18z NAM adjusted from 12z to look more ECMWF-like than GFS-like. That's not a strong start to 18z.

Long range 

[MJO812]

Watch this little wave also

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Watch this little wave also

Yes snow on Saturday is more likely at this point than Sunday or Monday.

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there isn't a single eps member that has a gfs track

There aren't any GEPS or GEFS members either.

[MJO812]

Just now, eduggs said:

Yes snow on Saturday is more likely at this point than Sunday or Monday.

Icon is worse

[snowman19]

[MJO812]

Just now, snowman19 said:

 

Long shot but this is far from the solution. Having the PNA on our side is big.

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There aren't any GEPS or GEFS members either.

18Z GFS will likely look OTS

[eduggs]

You don't want shortwave troffing (concave up) northeast of the vortmax at the base of the trof. That's what sabotages the coastal threat on the 12z ECMWF and that's that the 18z NAM/ICON shifted more towards. By comparison, the 12z GFS had subtle shortwave ridging (concave down) over NYS.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

18Z GFS will likely look OTS

Agree